Post #238 28 February 2021

 Gentlefolk,

This post covers events during February 2021.

The contents of this post are in the following sequence:

Photos of our activities during February 2021 (including Movies and Books).

Some noteworthy events in February 2021.

International trade.

American politics (including a comparison of USA and Australian political systems).

Covid-19.

Here are photos of some of our activities in February 2021

The Guys & Dolls Dinner group was hosted by Geoff Banbury this month on 6 February.

Geoff served martinis as we arrived - an acquired taste! He is a great host.

The unofficial start of the Super Rugby season on 8 February saw a trial game between ACT Brumbies and Perth Force. We won a close game 29 - 28! We played them again 10 days later, in Perth, for the official start, and we had a good win this time.  The competition will be in two halves this year: first the 5 Aussie teams will play against each other, and then later there will be a combined Australia - NZ competition.

I hope these Pacific Island drummers will be a regular feature at Brumbies games this year.

Chinese New Year (aka Spring Festival) was on 12 February and ushered in the Year of the Ox.

The Australia China Friendship Society hosted a dinner for Chinese New Year. The President, Carol Keil, welcomed guests.

We attended the Valentine's Day dance organised by the Canberra Old Time Dance Club.

Got together with old friends Alex Shumack and David Evans, aren't we "three old farts"?

We had a weekend in Sydney to catch up with Caz and Andrew & Eddie and Jay. We watched Eddie's team play soccer at Waverley College. Beautiful afternoon.

Proud grandparents congratulate Eddie for his "Man of the Match" performance. He scored 3 goals and had 2 assists. 

Eddie (right) with his best mate, Zeke. Peas in a pod! Two budding soccer stars.

After soccer we inspected the site in Queen's Park where Caz and Andrew are building their dream home. They hope to be living there by the end of this year.

On Sunday morning we accompanied Eddie to his Hip Hop class, then had Yum Cha at the Marigold Restaurant in Chinatown. Afterwards we found some entertainment related to Chinese New Year (Lion Dance, Hip Hop group, Peking Opera).

The energetic Lion Dance was popular. We were surprised to see Caucasians were the principal dancers!

The kids 'riding' on Andrew's back while watching the Lion Dance.

Walking home (except for Jay who got a ride; she finally fell asleep and Andrew had to carry her home in his arms.

Brad and Stephen inspecting the balcony above us - they found the source of the water leak. Eureka!!! Now we just have to wait for the repair.

ANU Professor Bill Maley gave a fascinating talk to the Australian Institute of International Affairs on "Diplomatic lessons from the Afghanistan Peace Process".  Apparently Donald Trump gave in to the Taliban - he was desperate to end America's military presence there at any cost - it is a totally one-sided 'deal'. Watch the country disintegrate in May 2021; all those hard-fought gains will be lost. 

Heath McMichael, President of the AIIA, welcomed Prof Maley as a Life Member.

The Lantern Festival was held last night in Canberra's Beijing Garden - it occurs 2 weeks after Chinese New Year, and marks the formal end of CNY celebrations. Vera & I helped set up the facilities and Vera sold lanterns while I sold bottled water.

The Pavilion looked great with coloured lanterns, especially when it became dark.

Vera with other volunteers, Clara and Vanessa.

We arranged for many cultural groups to put on performances.

A women's dance group.

Some of the younger performers.

About 600 people attended the Festival. The day started cool and cloudy, but in the afternoon the cloud cleared and we had a wonderful evening.

A lovely sunset over Lake Burley Griffin.  Later a HUGE full moon appeared.

Film

We enjoyed this movie.  The director is Korean-American and the story describes the difficulties of a Korean immigrant family to adjust to American culture and ways. Unusually for an American film, most of the dialogue is in Korean, with English sub-titles.  

The film describes the struggles immigrants go through in adapting to life in a new country (new language, new culture, etc). The first generation usually does it tough. It's a powerful, well-made film, definitely worth seeing; four out of five stars.

Books

I read two books in February: a biography of Elon Musk and an autobiography of Peter Cosgrove. You couldn't get two more different people, yet both have been very successful in their own ways.

The more I got into this book the more excited I became. Of course I had heard of Elon Musk (who hasn't?) but he is much, much more than just electric cars.   Adjectives to describe him include: visionary, creative, tireless, workaholic, risk-taker, engineer-extraordinaire, inspirational, ruthless, self-centered, etc, etc.  Surely such a complex character must be on the autism spectrum, with a good dose of OCD thrown in? 
His motivation is to achieve, and his goal is to improve the human condition.
I'm so glad I read this book and learnt more about this fascinating person. He epitomises the expression "if you are not living on the edge, you are taking up too much room"!

An impressive career: from humble beginnings, Peter Cosgrove achieved the position of Chief of Army and then Chief of Defence Force; finally he became Australia's 26th Governor General (representing Queen Elizabeth as Head of State). He obviously loved soldiering, the structure, the discipline, the challenges of leadership.
But the book disappoints in that it reveals little of Peter Cosgrove the individual. What does he think of Australia's defence capability? Of climate change? Of the Republic debate?  Of China? Of Trump? Of the loss of trust in politicians?  Of homelessness? He hasn't got a critical word to say about anybody or anything.  Pity, I would hope that there is much more to him than revealed in this memoir.

 

Some noteworthy events in February 2021

February 2021	Event
1st	Lionel Messi’s contract with Barcelona Football Club was leaked: 555 million euros for 4 years (until 30 June 2021). Messi has been with Barcelona 20 years, since he joined them as a 13 year-old. A true champion he has won 10 x La Liga titles, 4 x Champions League, and 6 times crowned world’s best soccer player.
	The WHO Expert Team visited the wet market in Wuhan where the coronavirus is believed to have started. The team leader admitted that it would be difficult to identify why/how Covid-19 started.
4th	Apple reported increased Q4 2020 earnings: revenue $111 B, net profit $29 B.
8th	NFL Super Bowl: Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Kansas City Chiefs 31 - 9. Quarterback Tom Brady (43 years old!) won his 7th Championship.
	In the NBA, Steph Curry scored 50 points for the Golden State Warriors but still lost 132 – 134 to the Dallas Mavericks.
	Bloomberg reported that the 2020 USA / China trade deficit in goods totalled $311 billion, a reduction of $36B over 2016. But imports just came from elsewhere: eg imports of goods from Mexico increased by $50B and from Vietnam increased by $37B. Bloomberg estimates that in January 2021 there were 150,000 fewer manufacturing jobs in the USA than in January 2017.
10th	China reported 10.03m births in 2020, the lowest number in 70 years. Ageing quickly, 13% of the population (230m) is now over 65. The Chinese Govt said that "abject poverty" (ie income of less than $2 per day) has been eliminated - it is estimated that there were 700 million people in this category just 30 years ago - whatever one might think of the Chinese political system, this is a truly remarkable achievement.
14th	Senate voted 57 – 43 as Trump’s second impeachment trial for inciting the 6 January Capitol riots ended in acquittal; they needed another 10 Senators to find him guilty.
14th	First anti-Covid vaccine arrived in Australia (first shots administered 22 February). China has already vaccinated 40m, UK 15m, Israel 50% of population.
16th	Ngazi Okonjo-Iweala appointed Director General of the World Trade Organisation; first woman, and first African,
19th	NASA rover “Perseverence” landed on Mars.
	Bitcoin hit $52,000 on news that Elon Musk bought $1.5B worth of bitcoins.
21st	Australian Tennis Open: Naomi Osaka beat Jennifer Brady 6-4, 6-3 to win her second Aussie Open. Novak Djokovic beat Daniil Medvedev 7-5, 6-2, 6-4. That was Novak’s 9th Aussie Open, and 18th Grand Slam title.
23rd	US Supreme Court rejected Trump’s attempt to keep his financial data confidential, allowing New York’s Attorney General access to his financial records including tax returns.
24th	The USA passed 500,000 deaths from Covid-19.

 

International trade

My 30 year career as an Australian Trade Commissioner has given me an interest in matters related to international trade.  I subscribe to Bloomberg's excellent daily newsletter "Supply Lines - tracking Covid-19's impact on trade" (former title 'Trade Matters').  

The coronavirus pandemic has had a big impact on countries' economies and on international trade.  

Here are some of the more interesting graphs in the Bloomberg newsletter during February 2021; they are largely self-explanatory.

According to this chart, the USA had a deficit in goods  (aka 'merchandise') trade of $915B in 2020 (red bars), but if you include services then the overall trade deficit reduced to $678B (black bars), because the USA has a huge surplus in its services trade with other countries.

American politics

Most of President Biden's nominations are being speedily approved by the Senate - thank god the Democrats won the two Georgia senate seats which smooths the process for Biden. The House has passed a $1.9 trillion stimulus package - let's see what the Senate does.

Donald Trump's 2nd Impeachment trial (for inciting the riotous attack on the Capitol on 6 January) went as expected: the 'guilty' vote needed 67 Senators but only got 57, so he was acquitted. Former President Trump is ensconced at Mar-a-Lago in Florida plotting his 2024 come-back. He is still a formidable force in the Republican Party.

All the shenanigans following the election on 3 November 2020 were fascinating, but it was sad to see the erosion of trust in the American voting system, which is the very foundation of democracy; that could well be Trump's worst legacy.

I couldn't understand how a candidate who lost the election could continue to wield power for another 77 days. Surely as soon as the result is clear, the winner takes over?  No so. First the Electoral College meets in December to "count the votes" and then the new Congress meets in early January to confirm the result.  Then it is another two weeks until Inauguration Day, and only then does the winner take over.

It made me think of similarities and differences between the American and Australian political systems, so I compiled the following table.

Table: Comparison USA and Australian political systems

The USA and Australia both have written Constitutions (the American Constitution came into force in 1789; the Australian Constitution in 1901). Both are Federations, where power is shared between the Federal and State Governments. The USA is a republic, Australia is a Constitutional Monarchy; in the US the President is both Head of State and Head of Government, while in Australia Queen Elizabeth is Head of State and the Governor General is Head of Government (although in reality the Prime Minister leads the Government).

The Table below has some more comparisons (the most surprising, for me, was that the President continues to govern for 77 days after election day, ie President Trump lost the election held on 3 November 2020, but continued to wield Presidential powers until Joe Biden, the winner by 81.3m to 74.2m votes or 306 Electoral College votes to 232, was inaugurated on 20 January 2021. I mean, on reflection isn't it kinda anti-democratic that the loser continues in office for so long?).

	USA	Australia
Separation of powers	The USA has three distinct branches of Govt: Legislature (Congress) to make laws; Executive (Presidency) to implement the laws; Judiciary (Supreme Court) to interpret laws and ensure they conform to the Constitution.	Under the British Parliamentary system which Australia adopted, the Executive is from the Legislature (ie the PM and Ministers are all members of  Congress - we call it Parliament) so these two Branches are combined; the Judiciary (High Court) is separate.
Amendments to the Constitution	Two-thirds of Congress must support the proposed Amendment, and three-quarters of State legislatures (38/50). There have been 27 Amendments since 1789. The first ten are known as the Bill of Rights adopted in 1791.  The most recent Amendment was in 1992.	The Australian Parliament must first agree to a proposed Amendment, and then a referendum is held. If a majority of States (4 out of 6) and a national majority vote for the Amendment it is accepted.  Since 1901 there have been 19 referendums proposing 44 Amendments, but only 8 have succeeded (the last in 1977).
Frequency of Elections	Elections are always held on the first Tuesday of November, in even years. House of Reps – every 2 years. Senate – one third every two years. President – every 4 years.	Elections must be held within 3 years of the first sitting of the House of Reps of the new Parliament, but the timing of an election is at the discretion of the Prime Minister. (Some Australian States now have fixed terms). Elections are always held on Saturday. H of Reps – at least every 3 years. Senate – half at a general election.
President / PM	In the USA the President is directly elected by the people (actually, via the State-based 538 Electoral College; so to win you need at least 270 votes). The Electoral College has a virtual meeting in mid-December to count the vote. Then on 6 January the new Congress meets in Joint Session to certify the Electoral College vote.	In Australia, the Prime Minister is the leader of the Party which can form Govt in the House of Representatives. He/she is elected by voters in his/her electorate; and then by all that Party’s Members in the Parliament.
Cabinet and other appointments	The President can choose his/her Cabinet and other appointments such as Ambassadors, but they must be confirmed by the Senate.	Ministers and other appointments are at the discretion of the Prime Minister alone, but are made formally by “the Governor General in Council”.
Swearing-in	The President is sworn-in by a Judge (usually the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court), but can be any judge.	The Prime Minister and Ministers are sworn-in by the Governor General (as the Queen’s representative).
Oath of Office	The President: “I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the USA, and will to the best of my ability preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution of the United States of America”.	The PM:  “I (name) do swear that I will well and truly serve the people of Australia in the Office of Prime Minister, and that I will be faithful and bear allegiance to Her Majesty, Queen Elizabeth 2nd, Queen of Australia, so help me God”. (Last phrase is optional).
Inauguration	The Inauguration takes place on 20 January, 77 days after the election. It is a big, public ceremony. The outgoing President usually attends.	The Swearing-in of the PM and Ministers takes place as soon as the election result is clear, and a Party can form Govt. It is held at Government House, the residence of the Governor General. It is usually a small, private affair, with only family present.
Leaders Term	Presidents can serve a maximum of two 4-year terms.	A Prime Minister can serve as long as he/she is leader of the Party which can form govt in the House of Representativess.
Commander in Chief	The President is the Commander in Chief of American Armed Forces.	The Governor General is the Commander in Chief (in practice the Military report to the Minister for Defence.)
Caretaker mode	The President continues to govern until the Inauguration of the next Administration takes place, at about midday on 20 January (Inauguration Day).	In Australia, as soon as a general election is called, the government goes into “caretaker mode” and no new policies are introduced until the new Govt has taken over.
Voting	Voting is not compulsory in America. To vote, a person has to be a citizen of the USA, 18 years old, and registered on the local Electoral Roll. Voting is based on first-past-the-post. In the USA, each State elects two Senators. The "turn-out rate" in the election on 3 November 2020 was 66% (ie about two-thirds of those who could have voted, actually voted).	Voting is compulsory in Australia (since 1924). To vote a person has to be a citizen, 18 years old, and on the Electoral Roll. The House of Reps uses preferential voting, the Senate uses proportional representation. In Australia, each State elects 12 Senators and the NT and ACT  elect 2 Senators each.  The Turn-out rate in the May 2019 general election was 92%.
Management of elections	All elections are a State responsibility in the USA.	The independent Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) has responsibility for all matters related to national elections in Australia (eg electorate boundaries, polling places, and vote counting). Each State has its own equivalent to the AEC to conduct State and Local elections,
Campaigns and Election expenditure	Political campaigns seem to start months (or even years) before the next election. Expenditure on elections seems unlimited in the USA.	Formal election campaigns are usually 4 to 5 weeks in duration. Much less is spent on elections in Australia. Political donations of more than $14,000 must be reported to the AEC. For the 2019 general election, Clive Palmer’s company Minerology was the largest political donor with $6m, followed by Pratt Group with $1.6m.
Supreme / High Court	New Supreme Court Justices are nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate. The nine Supreme Court Justices are appointed “for life”.	High Court Justices are appointed by the Governor General (at the direction of the Prime Minister). A referendum in 1977 amended the Constitution to change retirement age for the seven High Court Justices from ‘life’ to 70.

 

Covid-19

The coronavirus is still raging, but the rate of increase in cases has slowed significantly in the last two weeks - very good news.

Today (28 February 2021) the Global number of cumulative cases reached 115 million, with 2.5 million cumulative deaths. 

The top 10 countries by cumulative cases are: USA 29.2M cumulative cases / 525K cumulative deaths; India 11.1M / 157K; Brazil 10.5M / 254K; Russia 4.3M / 86K; UK 4.2M / 123K; France 3.7M / 86K ; Spain 3.2M / 69K; Italy 2.9M / 98K; Turkey 2.7M / 29K; Germany 2.4M / 71K.

Australia is still doing well, with only 29K cumulative cases and 909 cumulative deaths. At the moment none of the States have lock-downs and requirements to wear masks are being eased. Vaccinations started a week ago. Life is slowly getting back to normal.

...

That's it for this post. But before I sign off I want to congratulate the ACT Brumbies on their defeat of the NSW Waratahs last night by 61 - 10 (9 tries to 1).  Unfortunately I missed the game because I was working at the Lantern Festival, but I was there in spirit. Well done, Brumbies - keep up the good work!!

Best wishes, stay healthy and keep smiling.

Vera & Alex Olah

Canberra, Australia

Sunday 28 February 2021.