Tuesday 28 March 2023

Post #263 28 March 2023

 Gentlefolk,


This Post describes some of our activities during the month of March 2023.


The contents of this post are in the following sequence:

Photos of our activities during March 2023.

Some news items which caught my eye in March 2023.

International Trade.

Why men are never depressed.




Overview: March had many ups & downs.

Probably the biggest event in March was the threat of financial crisis following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. The US Govt stepped in quickly and guaranteed deposits.  Credit Suisse, the second largest bank in Switzerland, was in trouble and was taken over by UBS. Deutsche Bank also in spotlight. Stock markets around the world were jittery, for good reason.

For Australia the biggest event was the formal announcement by AUKUS (Biden, Sunak, and Albo)  that Australia would get 8 nuclear powered submarines over the next 30 years at a cost of A$368B. Does that sound like a crazy deal to you, too???? 


With friends like these two, who needs enemies ....?


Another major event was the launch of the "Yes" campaign for the referendum to enshrine an Indigenous Voice in the Constitution. The referendum will be held later this year. The next few months will be interesting as the Yes and No campaigns try to convince the citizens of Australia to their case. The Albanese Govt strongly supports the Yes side, but the Opposition (Dutton's Liberals) are still deciding their position. Historically only 8 out of 44 referenda have passed, so it's not an easy road especially if there is not a bipartisan approach. 

Some States are already moving on this issue: last week the South Australian parliament passed legislation to establish an Indigenous Voice; and the Victorian Govt is not far behind. 

Personally, I'd like to see how the State models operate before deciding on a national Voice. I'm all for recognition of our First People, but am not convinced that a Voice in the Constitution is the way to go until we see how they operate on a State basis.





Herewith photos of some of our activities during March.



Have you heard of Canoe Polo? I hadn't either until I came across a game while riding around Lake Burley Griffin. Five players a side in canoes; they pass the ball and score through a goal. Tricky!



Women's basketball. Noel and Tien came to the Capitals final game with us at the National Convention Centre.


The Canberra Capitals played Perth Lynx.  We got to within 2 points, but in the end the Lynx were too good. Impressive skills on both sides.



I worked with Richard Gould in Austrade 30 years ago. His wife Magda Cebokli is an artist and held an exhibition in Canberra.  It was nice to catch up with them again (they live in Melourne).



Magda's exhibition.


I went to the launch of this new book by Chris Wallace (she was in the Parliamentary Press Gallery before becoming an academic at the University of Canberra). The book comprises a series of biographical essays on prime ministers and their biographers, exploring their backgrounds, relationships, motivations and political impact.


Tanya Plibersek conducted the interview with author Chris Wallace. Tanya is the Minister for the Environment, and a popular figure in the Government. The hall at the ANU was almost full (only Kevin Rudd had a bigger audience), most people were keen to see Tanya close up; we were not disappointed, she is impressive,



Saw this big advertisement on the side of a Canberra bus - my sister Aniko and her husband Peter. They are also known as "the dynamic duo", great realtors.



Former colleague, Michael Tjoeng, visited from Brisbane. This photo is from 1986; we were in the Trade Office of the Australian Embassy. Happy days!



From left: Peter (Michael's son - he works in Canberra); Vera; Michael Tjoeng; Shirley (Peter's girlfriend) and me.  Michael and I played golf twice during his visit - good fun. 



Michael and I went to the Brumbies game (with Peter Rayner, Andrew Moorhead and Noel Cock). The Brumbies dominated the first half, but the Reds came back in the second half. Good, close game (we won!).



We took Michael to see the Enlighten Festival at Old Parliament House; all the national institutions were lit up in different patterns - attractive!



Big crowd (including many children) at Old Parliament House, even at 10pm! They had special games for kids.



We drove to Sydney for Jay's 6th birthday. She had a bunch of school friends over: pool party!



Cutting Jay's birthday cake.


The next morning we accompanied Andrew when he took Eddie and Jay to school. Mother & son. Then back to Canberra. We returned to Sydney two weeks later to attend Caroline's 40th birthday party.



The banquet following the AGM of the Australia China Friendship Society.



Lunch with old friends Nee & Eugen and Kay & Bob.



Golf with Peter Rayner. The weather has been great this month - very little wind and rain. Getting cool now; leaves turning, autumn is here.



At the INXS show with Sue and Frank Tavares. It was a joint birthday celebration for Sue and Vera who have the same birthday.



On volunteer Guide Duty at Old Parliament House, with Maureen Chan. The Senate Chamber has just reopened after months of refurbishment (but now, sadly, the House or Reps chamber is closed for refurbishment).



Get together of the Australia Indonesia Families Association. Always delicious food to share!




At the Brumbies v Moana Pasifika game at Canberra Stadium. It was even until about the 60 minute mark and then the Brumbies got away. It was a "try fest" 9 tries to 5!! This is enjoyable, exciting rugby. The weather has been great for spectators too.



We went to the final day of the National Sheep Dog Trials, at Hall just outside Canberra. These canines are amazing. The relationship between handler and dog is amazing! 





The 2022 Champion Sheep Dog: Bredbo Ash.



Visited Geoff George and Dience. Geoff had a varied and fascinating career; he is now an accomplished artist. 





Monaro High School (MHS) in Cooma invited former students to inspect the new extensions (rumoured to cost $70M, twice the original budget). My sister Aniko and I drove down. About 40 former students attended. We were shown around by the Deputy Principal.
She said there are 460 students at MHS at present (it was over 1,000 when I was there in the 1960s). Perhaps the anticipated boost from Snowy 2.0 has not eventuated?  She said the High School in Jindabyne had reduced MHS catchment.



The new facade of MHS, facing Mittagang Road. There are two 'special needs' classrooms; a semi-commercial kitchen to teach cooking; a well equipped wood-work room; and good teachers area.  You don't get much for $70M these days!!!



The 'jewel in the crown' of MHS is the new 350-seat threatre. Everything high-tech. But does a school of this size really warrant a fancy theatre like this one? Anyway, a top facility like this will be good for Cooma and surrounds. 



Aniko and I drove past the house (6 Orana Avenue) we occupied when we first arrived in Cooma in September 1955.  It has been renovated since we last saw it, and is looking much better than before.



The Three Amigos, Friday morning golf buddies: me, Brian Edwards & Peter Rayner.



With Patrick O'Hara. We did political science together at the ANU a million years ago, and have remained friends ever since. Pat is battling significant health issues; a fighter!!!



Another quick trip to Sydney, this time for Caroline's 40th birthday party. Miami theme.. Proud parents Niniek and Paul with the birthday girl.  70 friends came to celebrate Caz's birthday. It was a fun night, everyone wanted to party, lots of music and dancing.


 
Caroline and Michelle, best friends.



A bevy of beauties!


Miltons & O'Callaghans, old friends.




Ewan Proctor, Paul Milton, Andrew, and Julian Ford. 



Back in Canberra. I'm a volunteer English tutor for a migrant group which meets at Woden Library on Monday mornings. Now that Covid is on the wane, numbers have picked up again. We first meet as a group and then split up into tables depending on the number of vlunteers. This morning I had 5 participants: a man from Bangladesh, a man and woman from China; a man from Hong Kong; and a woman from Indonesia. We chatted for an hour about every-day matters - a chance for them to practice English.



Vera & I have been attending a U3A Meditation class run by Beth Seddon. She is a wonderful teacher. The exercises seem so simple, but they are effective. We always feel refreshed after her class.


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News items which caught my eye during March 2023 

(It seems to have been a very busy month!).

 

Global

 

USA, Canada, UK banned Tik Tok from official devices (possible security risk).

FIFA announced best Mens and Womens players in 2022: Lionel Messi (PSG and Argentina); Alexia Putella (Barcelona).

Finland started building a fence along its 309km border with Russia ($600M).

Two trains collided in NE Greece; 57+ dead, 100 injured; line closed for 3 weeks.

Tik Tok will limit access to Under 18s to an hour a day.

Bola Tinubu new president of Nigeria; President of Vietnam is Vo Van Thuong (52).

G20 Foreign Ministers met in New Delhi; no consensus on Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The UN agreed on a Treaty to Protect Marine Biodiversity.

UK introduced tougher rules on illegal boat arrivals – they will be deported to Rwanda and will never be allowed to become UK citizens. Well known sports presenter Gary Lineker denounced the policy and was stood down by the BBC (later reinstated). UK will pay France $576M over three years to stop illegal boats.

American skier Mikaela Shiffin (27) had 87 World Cup wins, passed record set by Ingemar Stenmark.

Founder of 7-Eleven stores, Matatoshi Ito, died aged 98.

Saudi Aramco announced profit of $161B in 2022.

Only 6 countries out of 131 surveyed met WHO air quality guidelines: Australia; Estonia; Finland; Grenada; Iceland; and New Zealand. Worst were: Chad; Iraq; Pakistan; Bahrain; Kuwait; Bangladesh; and India.

HSBC bought the UK operations of Silicon Valley Bank for $2; Swiss Govt oversaw a deal in which major bank Credit Suisse (founded in 1856) was taken over by rival UBS for $3.3B; Deutsche Bank shares down 8+%.

China brokered renewed diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Saudi Arabia will buy 78 Boeing 787 Dreamliners; Japan Airlines placed an order for 21 Boeing 737 Max aircraft.

The French Govt forced through an increase in the retirement age from 62 to 64; widespread protests.

Ireland won the Six Nations Rugby Championship.

Cyclone Gabrielle hit the North Island of New Zealand; widespread flooding and damage.

Despite ongoing demonstrations, Govt of Israel passed laws protecting the position of Prime Minister (only the Cabinet can dismiss). Netanyahu announced a delay in implementing the new law.

Inflation in Argentina 102% in 12 months to February 2023.

New UN report from IPCC warned again of climate change dangers.

World Happiness Report listed happiest countries as all Nordic countries; Israel; Netherlands; Switzerland; NZ; Australia.

Media tycoon Rupert Murdoch (92) announced his engagement to Ann Lesley Smith (66).

Indian Govt is trying to find and arrest Amritpal Singh, leader of group advocating a separate Sikh State.

World Athletics tightened rules on transgender woman athletes.

Canada’s population increased by 1+M in 2022 (to 39.5M); 90% from  immigration (437K immigrants; 607K non permanent visitors).

The Scottish National Party elected Humza Yousaf as leader, to replace Nicola Sturgeon. He was born in Glasgow of Pakistani and Kenyan parents. He is the first Moslem and first non-white to be Scotland’s First Minister.

Germany ‘mega strike” halted public transport for a day.

 

Russian invasion of Ukraine

Battle for Bakhmut raged.

Russian jets downed a US Reaper drone over the Black Sea.

Poland will give Ukraine 28 MiG29 jet fighters; Slovakia will send 13.

The International Criminal Court accused Pres Putin of war crimes; he can be arrested if he enters one of the 123 signatories to the ICC (Russia, the USA and others are not signatories).

Russia agreed to an extension of 60 days to the Black Sea Grain Export Agreement which allows Ukraine exports.

Pres Putin visited Mariupol in the Ukraine.

17 EU members plus Norway agreed to maintain supplies of ammunition (esp 155mm artillery shells) to Ukraine. First German and British tanks arrive. 

Largest military aid donors to Ukraine: USA $47B; UK $5.1B; EU $3.3B; Poland $2.5B; Germany $2.5B.

China, with Russian agreement, announced a possible 12 point peace plan; rejected by West - Ukraine said that Russia must withdraw totally before negotiations can commence.

Prime Minister of Japan visited Kyiv.

Russia warned UK not to provide “depleted uranium ammunition” to Ukraine.

Russia to station nuclear weapons in Belarus.

  

USA

 

Tesla to build a factory in Mexico, estimated investment $1B.

 Kobe Bryant’s widow, Vanessa, awarded $29M after suing LA county for releasing photos of her husband’s death.

 Alex Murdaugh (54) was convicted of killing his wife and son in South Carolina.

 Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank which specialized in financing of tech startups. It had $209B in assets, but a “run” of $43B in a day brought it undone. Signature Bank of New York also folded. The Govt guaranteed all deposits of both banks, to avert a banking crisis. The FDIC received bids from 18 companies to take over the assets and loans of SVB; successful bidder was First Citizen BancShares.

 The film Everything Everywhere All the Time got Best Picture Oscar (and 6 others); Best Actress Michelle Yeoh (first Asian winner); Best Supporting Actress Jamie Lee Curtis; Best Supporting Actor Ky Huy Quan. Best actor went to Brendan Fraser for his performance in The Whale. German anti-war film All Quiet on the Western Front got 4 awards.

 President Biden approved the Conoco Willow Project $8B to drill for oil and gas in Alaska.

 Meta (parent of Facebook) to lay off 10K staff.

 Chinese billionaire Guo Wen Gin was arrested in NYC for alleged fraud.

 Former President Trump said that he was about to be arrested by NYC (Manhattan District Attorney); he called for mass protests. Trump held his first rally at an airfield near Waco, Texas. Vintage Trump, he harangued the crowd for 90 minutes without seeming to draw breath. He is determined to be the Republican nominee for the 2024 Presidential Election. YouTube reinstated Trump’s account.

 The Governor of Wyoming signed a law banning the sale of abortion pills.

 Federal Reserve lifted interest rates by 0.25% (9th increase), to 5%.

 Congressional hearings accused Tik Tok of being a security risk; pressured to localize (there are 150 million Tik Tok users per month in the US).

 A violent tornado hit Mississippi – 27 dead, much damage.

 A 28 year old female former student shot 3 adults and 3 children at a school in Nashville.

Utah is the first US State to limit teen access to social media – must have parental consent.

  

Australia

Canberra had its coolest summer in 38 years.

The Govt announced that income on Superannuation balances of over A$3M would be taxed at 30% from 1 July 2025 (below $3M attracts 15% tax).

India beat Australia 3 Tests to 1 in cricket, but we won the One Day series.

Royal Commission into the Robodebt scheme commenced hearings.

The Reserve Bank raised interest rates for tenth time by 0,25% (to 3.6%).

CEO of Qantas since 2008, Alan Joyce, announced he will step down.

PM Albanese led a trade mission to India; Premier of Victoria, Daniel Andrews, visited China.

Extensive flooding in Northern Queensland; millions of fish died from depeted oxygen.

PM Albanese visited San Diego for the announcement of the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal with the US and UK. Eight nuclear powered subs will cost an estimated A$368B over 30 years. Former Prime Minister Paul Keating called it “the worst deal in history.”

Actor Sam Neill announced he has cancer; he has been in 70+ films.

The Labor Party won the NSW State election; new Premier is Chris Minns. All mainland States now have Labor governments (not Tasmania).

 

China

Hong Kong cancelled the mask mandate introduced in July 2020.

The National People’s Congress elected Xi Jin Ping as President for a 3rd term of 5 years; it approved a military budget of $224B, an increase of 7.2% (US military budget is 4 times as large, and increasing by 8%); target of 3% GDP growth in 2023.

New Chinese Premier is Li Qiang (63); new Foreign Minister is Qin Gang (former Ambassador to US).

China will start issuing tourist visas for international visitors (stopped in March 2020).

President Xi visited Moscow; announced a possible Peace Plan – but rejected by West.

 

 

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INTERNATIONAL TRADE

My 30 year career as an Australian Trade Commissioner gave me an interest in matters related to international trade.  I subscribe to Bloomberg's excellent daily newsletter "Supply Lines - tracking Covid-19's impact on trade" (former title 'Trade Matters').  

Here are some of the more interesting graphs in the Bloomberg newsletter during March 2023; they are largely self-explanatory.

























US Imports $326B, Exports $258B; Trade Deficit in January 2023 $68B. 










In 2022 imports from China, as a % of total US imports, were 16.6% (down from 21.6% in 2017). In 2022 exports to China, as a % of total US exports, were 7.3% (down from 8.4% in 2017).  


















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I am pubishing this post a little early, as Vera & I are off to Indonesia for a month: Jakarta, Bandung, Jepara, Surabaya, Bali (Canggu, Ubud, Sanur, and Legian. My April post will be late.

March is a transition month weather-wise.  A month ago sunrise was before 6am, and sunset was later than 8pm.  Today sunrise was at 7.15am and sunset at 7pm.  Daylight saving will finish on 2 April,  clocks go back an hour, and we'll really notice the shorter afternoons then.

By the time we return to Canberra at the end of April, the weather will be much cooler, and the days shorter. I've always enjoyed witnessing the change of seasons, but let's see how it goes this year.

That's all for now.

Our best wishes, stay healthy and keep smiling.

Vera & Alex Olah
Canberra, Australia
Tuesday 28 March 2023