Post #222 9 May 2020

Gentlefolk,

I decided to do a summary of issues relating to Covid-19 (CV19) every 10 days.  This is the fourth post in the sequence and covers the period 30 April to 9 May 2020.

Timeline #1: first 100 days, 1 January – 9 April 2020 (Post #219).

Timeline #2: ten days, 10 – 19 April 2020 (Post #220).

Timeline #3: ten days 20 – 29 April 2020 (Post #221).
Timeline #4: ten days 30 April to 9 May 2020 (Post #222 - this one)

I am hoping that by breaking it down into 10 day segments we can make more sense of the medical & economic tsunami which has hit the world.

(1) First, let's have a look at how the numbers are going (37 day period 3 April - 9 May 2020 - ten days is too short to appreciate numbers).

Covid-19 by the numbers, confirmed cases and deaths (cumulative), global and selected countries.

Source: John Hopkins University / World Health Organisation (from South China Morning Post)

Note 1: I started keeping daily figures on 3 April; figures for 20 April are included as it is half-way through this 37 day period (3 April - 9 May). 

Note 2: Often country statistics have been revised upwards as officials catch up.

Date 2020	Global		Australia
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	1,002.159	51,485	5,116	24
20 April	2,386,893	165,408	6,547	67
9 May	3,894,757	272,528	6,913	97

Date	USA		Italy		Spain
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	236,339	5,648	115,242	13,915	110,238	10,096
20 April	755,533	41,379	178,972	23,660	195,944	20,453
9 May	1,279,546	76,706	217,185	30,201	222,857	26,299

Date	Iran		India		Indonesia
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	50,468	3,160	2,356	72	1,790	170
20 April	82,211	5,118	16,365	521	6,575	582
9 May	104,691	6,541	56,351	1,889	13,112	943

Date	Brazil		Russia		Nigeria
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	7,910	299	3,548	30
20 April	36,925	2,372	42,853	361	542	13
9 May	141,088	9,637	187,859	1,723	3,526	107

In this 37 day period, global cases have gone from 1m to almost 4m; frightening to see the steep increases in countries such as Russia (from 3,548 to 187,859 cases) and Brazil (from 7,910 to 141,088 cases) - a stark reminder of just how contagious this virus is.

(2) So, what's been happening in the last 10 days?  The following is a short list of Events & Announcements in the period 30 April to 9 May 2020.

Covid-19 pandemic Timeline #4:                               

30 April to 9 May 2020 (days 121 – 130)

Events and Announcements which caught my eye during this period.

(Compiled from various media sources by Alex Olah, with a focus on USA and Australia)

 (Note: $ = US dollars unless otherwise stated)

Day (since Jan 1st)	Date	Event / Announcement
121	30 April 2020	USA: President Trump said that he would not extend the Federal Govt’s social distancing guidelines when they expire on 7 May. GDP shrank by 4.8% in Q1. Dow Jones Index jumped 2.2% on promising preliminary test results on Remdesivir (by Gilead Scientific). Facebook said that in March 2020 daily users increased by 11% to 1,7 billion; ad revenue increased 17%. China: GDP shrank 6.8% in Q1. Australia: Of a total of 106 cases in the ACT (Canberra), 103 recovered and 3 died; there are now no active cases in the ACT. Germany: Govt concerned that the infection rate has increased from 0.7 to 1.
122	1 May	USA: 3.8 m filed for unemployment bringing total for last 6 weeks to 30m. The end of March ended a good month for Wall Street with stocks up 30% from low point on 23 March. Thousands of Hasidic Jews attended a Rabbi’s funeral in New York City; criticised by Mayor for not obeying restrictions. Russia: PM Mikhail Mishustin said he had CV19. UK: PM Boris Johnson announced birth of son, Wilfred Johnson. Death count for CV19 revised upwards by 4K for deaths in Aged Care homes.
123	2	USA: Dow Jones Index fell 2.5% on Trump threats of more tariffs on China. President Trump indicated support of protesters (some armed) in the Michigan State Legislature demanding the State open up. More than 50% of US States will have partial openings by next weekend (despite few, if any, achieving the White House guideline issued 17 April recommending 14 days of sustained decreases in cases before restrictions can be relaxed). Canada: Govt banned assault-style weapons following the mass shooting in Nova Scotia last week (22 dead). India: Lock-down extended from 3 May to 17 May. Malaysia: Most businesses will be allowed to re-open from 4 May.
124	3	USA: 29,078 new cases and 1,426 deaths in last 24 hours. President Trump said that he had seen evidence that the virus came from a Chinese Laboratory, but refused to provide proof; US Intelligence agencies believe that the virus was not man-made. Warren Buffet announced that Berkshire Hathaway lost $50 billion in Q1 2020 (compared to a profit of $22B in the same period last year); he sold holdings of 10% in each of 4 major US airlines (he can’t see them being profitable for long time, so better to get out now even at a big loss). Japan: State of Emergency extended from 6 May to 31 May. Russia: 9,623 new cases in last 24 hours; big jump. Spain: People allowed outside after 48 days of confinement.
125	4	USA: As the US death toll passed 67K, President Trump said it could reach 100K. President Trump predicted a vaccine would be available by year’s end (German Health Minister counselled patience as vaccines take a long time). Trump said he would ‘kill’ the Phase 1 Trade Deal if China doesn’t buy the additional $200 billion of American products, regardless of economic situation in China. Hong Kong: Big falls on HK stock exchange by Chinese companies: Air China, Southern China, Eastern China, Tencent, Alibaba, PetroChina, Sinopec. CITIC. Japan: Stimulus package US$1.1 Trillion.
126	5	Global: The EU hosted a virtual meeting re R & D for a CV19 vaccine.  43 countries participated (not USA or Russia). They pledged $8B (Japan highest contributor with $1B). China said the 'blame game' should stop. USA: A shop’s security guard in Flint, Michigan was shot and killed when he demanded a customer wear a face mask as per regulations. A park ranger in Texas was pushed into a lake when he advised a group to maintain social distancing rules. China: Has sent 149 health workers to help other countries fight CV19. Govt approved clinical trials by 3 companies working on CV19 vaccine. Business / Companies: Air France-KLM consortium to get $10B help; Boeing and Airbus have both lost about 60% in market value; BHP has lost 40%; Dow Jones Index, despite recent rises, is still down 18% since late-February. Australia: 22 new cases in Victoria, of which 19 were in a meat processing plant. Two schools, one in Victoria and one in NSW, found with a case each. Canberra Airport started monitoring temperature of departing passengers; the Airport currently has only about 300 passengers per day (5% of normal). Job adverts in April 2020 62% lower than April 2019. About 1 million Aussie workers have lost their jobs during CV19. 72% of companies in Australia are experiencing reduced cash-flow, and postponing new investments. Three of the “Big 4” banks announced big falls in profits and reduced or suspended dividends. As internal restrictions are eased in Australia and NZ, a “travel bubble” linking the two countries is being considered. Nigeria: Easing restrictions in Lagos and Abuja (partial lock-down started 30 Mar).
127	6	Business: Disney Q1 profit down 91%; 100,000 staff furloughed; plan to re-open Shanghai Disneyland next week. USA: White House Task Force on CV19 to be wound down by end May (despite numbers still rising); Trump wants to focus on re-opening. UK: Deaths pass 29,500; now highest in Europe. Australia: More cases found in meat processing plant in Victoria, infection rate now 1.04 (aim is for it to be below 1); Australian cases peaked on 28 March with 460, then the curve flattened, now around 20 new cases a day. More than 700,000 companies started receiving wage subsidy payments to help keep almost 5m staff (JobKeeper Program).
128	7	USA: President Trump changed his mind and said the White House CV19 Task Force would now remain “indefinitely”. Trump and Pompeo continue to allege CV19 came from a laboratory in Wuhan, but offered no proof. Australia: More than A$15 billion has already been paid out in the various stimulus packages (A$5B in $750 cash payments;A$8B for small business; A$2.5B in JobKeeper wage subsidies). In first ten days 5 million people signed up to the COVIDsafe tracing app. Europe: Eurozone economies could contract 7.7% in 2020. Bank of England said the UK’s economy could contract by 14% in 2020 (the most since 1706).
129	8	USA: President Trump’s valet tested positive for CV19; daily testing introduced for White House staff. White House said the CDC draft guidelines for reopening were “overly prescriptive” and would not be adopted. 3.2 m Americans first-time unemployment applicants last week, bringing the total to 33.5m since mid-March (about 15% now unemployed). Neiman Marcus Group (founded 113 years ago, 69 outlets, includes Bergdorf Goodman and Last Call) filed for bankruptcy. US hotel occupancy rate last week was 29%. Moves in Congress to rename the address of Chinese Embassy as #1 Li Wen Liang Plaza, after the doctor who warned about CV19 in December 2019, was accused of ‘rumour mongering’, and later died from the disease. China: Trade figures for April showed a 3.5% increase in Exports (after falling 24% in Q1) and a 14% decrease in Imports (following -5% in Q1). The trade surplus in April was US$45 billion. Hong Kong: Bars and gyms are set to reopen this weekend, but with social distancing restrictions. Cathay Pacific Air is looking at ‘restructuring options’ (most of 35,000 staff are on unpaid leave). Australia: Projection that the economy could contract by 8% in the 2019/20 financial year (1 July 2019 to 30 June 2020). The National Cabinet announced a 3 step process to reopen over the next 7 weeks to July: Step #1, schools, cafes, restaurants, libraries open, gatherings of 10 allowed; Step #2, gatherings of 20, community sport, cinemas open; Step #3, gatherings of 100, interstate travel. States to determine their speed of opening.
123	9	United Nations: Secretary General appealed for an end to hate speech. USA: VP Mike Pence’s media advisor tested positive for CV19. Canada: Estimated 2m jobs lost in April, to add to 1m lost in March; unemployment now about 13%. South Africa: 20,000 prisoners given early parole. India: Bringing home about 15,000 citizens stranded in several countries. EU: Recommended to members that non-essential travel be curtailed until 15 June.

...

Many countries have started to ease restrictions. President Trump has been pushing 'reopening' for some weeks, he believes the economic consequences of continuing restrictions are too great and "the cure shouldn't be worse than the disease". But he is taking a huge gamble with people's lives. Although New York State seems to be flattening, other regions are going up; the US still has about 30,000 new cases and over 2,000 deaths per day. Many experts worry that relaxing restrictions too quickly could reverse gains made so far.

Australia is in a reasonable position with about 20 new cases per day. Yesterday the National Cabinet announced a 3 step process to relax restrictions over the next two months. Each State/Territory will determine its own pace.

Preliminary discussions have been held with New Zealand to create a "travel bubble" between the two countries. That is likely still weeks away, while travel to other international destinations is months away (or until a vaccine becomes widely available).

...

The economic impact of CV19 pandemic is becoming clearer, as statistics for Q1 (January - February - March) 2020 are released.  China's economy shrank by an estimated 6.8% and USA's by an estimated 4.8%.

But for most countries the Q2 (April - May - June) figures will be worse, as the full impact is felt. Eurozone economies are estimated to shrink by 7.7% in 2020, while the Bank of England has forecast a possible contraction of 14% for the UK - let's hope that disaster doesn't come to pass ...

The definition of 'recession' is two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Australia was one of very few countries to avoid a recession during the GFC, but we won't be as lucky this time ...

Stock markets crashed in late-February and March, but the downturn only lasted about a month and markets are on the way up again. The following graph shows movement of the Dow Jones Industrial Index over the last 12 months; it dropped from almost 30,000 to below 20,000 (bottomed 23 March 2020) and is now back above 24,000.  Its optimism seems way premature, but who really knows ...

Dow Jones Industrial Index, 12 months to 8 May 2020.

...

Some personal photos:

Vera had a cataract operation (left eye) on 4 May.  Went well. The right eye will be done in 10 days.
Here she is with Gail, one of the lovely nurses at Calvary Bruce Private Hospital.

Following Richard's funeral Jen and the boys drove back to Brisbane while Tom and Fiona stayed in Broulee with Barbara. Tom paid a short visit to Canberra - he showed us the memento "Little hammer" he made for Todd Hayward in appreciation for all Todd's support. Tom will head back to Brisbane tomorrow.

Vera with the flowers sent by Jen and Andrew (& families) for Mother's Day (tomorrow).  Hopefully next year we will be able to celebrate together.

Petrol has always been more expensive in Canberra; after threats by the ACT Govt, Service Stations finally dropped their prices of Unleaded 91 Petrol to about $1 per liter. 

If only it were that easy!

Sign of the times:

"Half of us will come out of this quarantine as amazing cooks, the other half will have a drinking problem".

Classified Ad: Single man with toilet paper seeks woman with hand sanitiser for good clean fun.


...

Cheerio, until my next post in 10 days.

Best wishes, stay healthy and keep smiling.

Vera & Alex Olah
Canberra, Australia
Saturday, 9 May 2020.