Post #224 29 May 2020

Gentlefolk,

I am doing a summary of issues relating to Covid-19 (CV19) every 10 days.  This is the sixth post in the sequence and covers the period 20 to 29 May 2020.

Timeline #1: first 100 days, 1 January – 9 April 2020 (Post #219).

Timeline #2: ten days, 10 – 19 April 2020 (Post #220).

Timeline #3: ten days 20 – 29 April 2020 (Post #221).
Timeline #4: ten days 30 April to 9 May 2020 (Post #222)
Timeline #5: ten days 10 - 19 May 2020 (post #223).
Timeline #6: ten days 20 - 29 May 2020 (post #224 - this one).

I am hoping that by breaking it down into 10 day segments we can make more sense of the medical & economic tsunami which has hit the world.

(1) First, let's have a look at what the statistics show over  the 57 day period 3 April - 29 May 2020 (ten days is too short to appreciate trends, so the start date is 3 April when I began keeping track of cumulative statistics).

These figures show cumulative cases and deaths at the beginning and end of the 57 day period 3 April to 29 May. They give us a sense of the magnitude of this pandemic.  I have included the figures for 30 April, which is the half-way point in this period, to better understand how the numbers moved during this time.

You can see that the big mover in the last 10 days was Brazil which is now in second place after the USA. Other countries in Latin America, such as Peru and Mexico, are also experiencing rapid increases.

Date 2020	Global		Australia
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	1,002.159	51,485	5,116	24
30April	3,194,884	227,638	6,752	91
29 May	5,730,794	357,497	7,150	103

Date	USA		Italy		Spain
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	236,339	5,648	115,242	13,915	110,238	10,096
30 April	1,039,909	60,967	203,591	27,682	236,899	24,275
29 May	1,715,811	101,337	231,732	33,142	237,906	27,119

Date	Iran		India		Indonesia
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	50,468	3,160	2,356	72	1,790	170
30 April	93,657	5,157	33,062	1,079	9,771	784
29 May	143,849	7,637	158,086	4,534	24,538	1,496

Date	Brazil		Russia		Nigeria
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	7,910	299	3,548	30
30 April	79,685	5,513	99,399	973	1,728	51
29 May	411,821	25,598	379,051	4,142	8,733	254

To get a feel for what is actually happening today it is better to look at "Active Cases" and especially "Serious/Critical Cases" (which have the biggest impact on a country's medical services). The following table shows Selected Countries ranked by the number of Serious/Critical Cases.

Covid-19 Selected countries by ‘Active Cases’ and ‘Serious/Critical Cases’ on 19 and 29 May 2020.

Country	Active Cases		Serious/critical cases
	As at 19 May	As at 29 May	As at 19 May	As at 29 May
Global	2,662,707	2,961,895	44,752	53,975
USA	1,102,647	1,166,411	16,852	17,202
India	57,951	89,755	n/a	8,944
Brazil	136,969	218,640	8,318	8,318
Iran	19,774	23,234	2,294	2,543
Russia	217,747	223,916	2,300	2,300
UK	n/a	n/a	1,559	1,559
France	89,960	90,385	1,998	1,429
Spain	53,521	60,909	1,152	854
Germany	14,566	10,682	1,133	744
Italy	66,553	47,986	749	489
Indonesia	12,495	16,802	n/a	n/a
Nigeria	4,183	6,064	7	7
Australia	569	467	12	5
China	82	73	8	4

Source: worldometers.info/coronavirus/   accessed 29 May 2020.

(2) So, what's been happening in the last 10 days?  The following is a short list of Events & Announcements in the period 20 May to 29 May 2020.

Covid-19 Timeline #6: 20 May to 29 May 2020                                            (days 141 – 150, since 1 January 2020)

Events and Announcements which caught my eye during this period (with a focus on the USA, which attracts most media coverage).

(Compiled by Alex Olah from various media sources, including The New York Times, CNN, BBC, SCMP, Australian Broadcasting Corporation, The New Daily)

 (Note: $ = US dollars unless otherwise stated)

Day	Date	Event / Announcement
141	20 May  2020	WHO: The World Health Assembly adopted a resolution that an impartial, independent and comprehensive review of CV19 be undertaken. USA: President Trump wrote to the WHO threatening to withhold funding and even membership unless it “reformed” within 30 days. President Trump said that he is taking daily doses of the anti-malaria drug Hydroxychloroquine (a global study published in The Lancet on 23/5 found that this drug could actually increase mortality). A survey by DB found a rise in commercial nationalism: 42% of Americans said they will not buy “Made in China” products in future and 35% of Chinese will not buy “Made in the USA” products. All US States have started easing restrictions (even though several are still recording increases in new daily cases). The ban on non-essential travel between USA and Canada was extended by a month, to 21 June. The US Govt will pay Phlow Corp $354m to produce anti-CV19 drugs for 4 years in America. Australia: Retail sales in April 2020 were 18% lower than March (and 10% lower than April 2019). NSW Premier announced that travel restrictions in NSW will end on 1 June. An estimated 110,000 foreign tourists are ‘stuck’ in Australia.
142	21 May	Global: 106,000 new cases of CV19 yesterday – the highest daily figure so far; nearly 70% in 4 countries: USA, Russia, Brazil and India. USA: Trump critical of performance of CDC.; blames China “they could have easily stopped the plague, but didn’t.” Accuses former President Obama of “Obamagate” (to attack Joe Biden). A study by Columbia University found that 84% of deaths may have been avoided had the country locked-down 2 weeks earlier. Italy: Airports were closed on 12 March – all will re-open on 3 June. Australia: Rising diplomatic tensions with China; China imposed a 80% tariff on Australian barley (long-standing anti-dumping dispute), and also stopped beef imports from 3 abattoirs. Japan: Exports fell 22% in April 2020, compared to April 2019; sales to the USA fell by 28%, and to China by 4%. Toyota is expecting an 80% drop in profitability this year.
143	22 May	Global: Total (cumulative) cases passed 5m; 330,000 deaths. Epi-center moving to Latin America, especially Brazil, Peru and Mexico. USA: 2.4m Americans filed jobless claims last week, bringing the 9 week total to 38.6m. Flags will fly at half-mast to honour those who died from CV19. Australia: The JobKeeper wage-subsidy program is supporting 3.5 m workers, rather than the 6.5m previously estimated; and the cost has been revised downwards from A$130B to A$70B.
144	23 May	WHO: Expressed concern that CV19 has interrupted the normal immunisation of millions of children in developing countries. Noted that 95% of deaths in Europe were aged 60+. USA: President Trump has classified places of worship as “essential”, and told Governors they should be opened. 102 year old car hire company Hertz (debts of $19B) filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy; let 10,000 staff go. UK: From 8 June all arrivals (including UK nationals) will have to self-isolate for 14 days. China: The National Peoples Congress held its annual meeting in Beijing; approved a $500B stimulus package; passed a national security law for Hong Kong (there were immediate protests and the Hang Seng fell by 6%). No new cases of CV19 reported in China – first clear day since beginning. Australia: Fitch Ratings for Australia is AAA –ve; estimates govt deficit to rise from 1.9% of GDP in 2018/19, to 6.9% in 2019/20, and 9% in 2020/21.
145	24 May	USA: To mark 100,000 deaths from CV19 the New York Times published 1,000 death notices on their front page. New York State recorded 84 deaths, first time below 100 since March. Foreign professional athletes given permission to enter the USA. More than 300,000 people flew on Thursday (beginning of the Memorial Day long weekend, the first time in 8 weeks that the number of passengers has exceeded 10% of the same day last year. Brazil: Recorded over 20,000 new cases in a day; Brazil set to replace Russia with second highest number or cases. Argentina: The lock-down which commenced on 20 March has been extended to 7 June. Argentina now has 11,353 cases and 445 deaths.
146	25 May	Global: G7 leader’s meeting planned for late-June, in Washington DC. USA: Suspended: flights from Brazil and persons who have visited Brazil in the last 14 days. White House Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett predicts unemployment will be over 20% in each of May and June. UK: Schools to start re-opening from 1 June. Japan: Considering a second stimulus package, of $929B (on top of $1.1T). Spain: Beaches re-opening gradually. South Africa: Ban on sale of alcohol imposed 27 March to be lifted, but ban on sale of cigarettes will continue.
147	26 May	USA: Big crowds at beaches and parks for Memorial Day long weekend; little social-distancing or masks. Australia: US Embassy in Canberra apologised for implying that a report on Chinese involvement in CV19 was prepared by Five Eyes Intelligence Services (it was a State Department “non-report”). It was provided to Aust media. Germany: Govt takes 20% stake in Lufthansa for $9.8B. Spain: From 1 July visitors will not have to go into quarantine (effort to support tourist industry – normally Spain has 80m visitors pa). Greece: Inter-island ferry service have resumed; restaurants, cafes and bars now open, hotels from 15 June.
148	27 May	France: $9B support package for car industry with focus on electric vehicles. Germany: Federal Govt + the 16 States agree to extend some social-distancing measures until 29 June. Canada: Quebec Govt extends $200m loan to Cirque du Soleil. Brazil: CV19 deaths higher than in USA for last two days (Brazil 1039 & 807; USA 683 & 498). UK: Controversy over breaking of lock-down restrictions by PM’s senior adviser Dominic Cummings.
149	28 May	USA: Tragic milestone: Passed 100,000 deaths today (average 900 deaths per day since first death was recorded on 6 February). Number of cumulative cases 1.7m; the number of new cases is still rising in 14 States, steady in 17 States and falling in 19 States. Graph is flattening: change over last 14 days -8% new cases and -61% deaths. Twitter marked post by President Trump with a “fact check label”; he was furious, threatened action. Disney World in Florida will open 11 July. Boeing to cut 16,000 staff. European Union: Stimulus package of $825B proposed, but some members unhappy with high proportion of grants (prefer loans). Hong Kong: Demonstrations against proposed national security law, 360 arrested. Schools re-open. Australia: Prime Minister announced plan to overhaul industrial relations & training. News Corp to cut many regional and community newspapers. Universities cost-cutting following sharp decline in revenue from international (especially Chinese) students.
150	29 May	USA: President Trump notes “sad milestone of 100K deaths”. Following Twitter’s ‘fact-check flag on his twit yesterday, Trump issued an Executive Order to limit social media; will legislate. Joint statement by USA, UK, Canada and Australia that China’s new national security law for Hong Kong is contrary to the “one country two systems” agreement signed with UK. Widespread protests in several cities following death of African-American George Floyd by police in Minneapolis. France: Will lift the 100km limit; reopening parks and beaches. UK: Schools to reopen from next week; 6 people allowed to gather. Australia: The National Rugby League competition resumed last night, players temperature tested and no spectators; Aussie Rules will re-start in 2 weeks; Rugby Union expected to return early July.

A note about Hong Kong.  I saw this table (below) in the South China Morning Post which compares the impact of SARS in 2003 with CV19 in 2020. 

Hong Kong – impact of Covid-19

HK’s economy was already weakened by the prolonged protests / demonstrations which started mid-2019 and Covid-19 made things worse. The following table shows economic indicators compiled by the South China Morning Post comparing the impact of the SARS epidemic in 2003 to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, for the first 122 days of each.

 HK’s economy is being smashed by Covid-19 pandemic!

The HK Security Law was adopted yesterday by the National Peoples Congress in Beijing - there are fears of renewed protests, and Trump is also threatening sanctions, both of which would further exacerbate the economic situation and make life even more difficult for Hong Kong residents.

The HK Govt has announced a stimulus package worth $37B (which includes a cash payment of HK$10,000 (approx $1,300) to every permanent resident in July 2020).

Economic indicator	SARS 21 Feb – 21 June 2003   (first 122 days)	Covid-19 23 Jan – 23 May 2020     (first 122 days)
Hang Seng Stock Market	Up 5.2%	Down 19%
Average daily stock market turnover, year on year (yoy)	Down 2.4%	Up 14%
Average home price	Down 11%	Down 1%
Average pre-owned home price (yoy)	Down 31%	Down 18%
GDP yoy	Down 0.5% (Q2 2003)	Down 8.9% (Q1 2020)
Total Exports yoy	Up 14% (Q2 2003)	Down 10% (Q1 2020)
Increase in jobless	Up 21%	Up 63%
Retail sales yoy	Down 11% (May 2003)	Down 42% (March 2020)
Tourist arrivals yoy	Down 18%	Down 81%

 Source: SCMP 23 May 2020.

...

Our friend, Greg Mills, occasionally dabbles in 'bush poetry' and was moved to pen this doggerel (with apologies to Banjo Paterson) during the "toilet paper wars" at the beginning of the CV19 pandemic.

                                 THE BATTLE OF AISLE SEVEN

                                (G M Mills, Australia, March 2020)

There was movement down at Woollies with the first light of the day

Where a tribe of would-be hoarders stood gathered for the fray

It had been put about on Facebook that a tragedy was looming

A toilet paper shortage that would have our housewives swooning

And discerning folk around the place, it gave them quite a fright

Cos the stuff that comes up on your phone, of course it must be right

And right across the nation, all our sphincters clenched in fear

For the things that we most need in life are shit paper and beer

But one or two old codgers they opined in tones most gruff

Nah, we don’t need that tissue soft - we’re made of sterner stuff

You’re just a pack of wooses with your over-pampered bums

When we were young and had the pangs or suffered from the runs

We’d bolt out to the thunder box sat somewhere in the yard  

And clean up with the Form Guide - it’s not that bleedin hard

Now one was there, a wiry bloke – he looked a trifle stressed

He was Kev from Middle Pocket who was somewhat under-dressed

His Ugg boots had some gaping holes and his daks hung quite askew

And carried several toxic stains from last night’s Vindaloo

Kev knew he had to grab a lot – he knew that was his right

And for his precious stockpile, he was quite prepared to fight.

So when the doors were opened and the hordes they rushed inside  

He trampled others underfoot and held back that human tide

He commandeered three trolleys and commenced to pile them high

While all the time repelling those who sought to pass him by

He had to land some lusty blows on those who blocked his way

His blood was up and how he loved the frisson of the fray

Poor Gladys had the clean-up shift - she came in at eleven

But she’d never faced the carnage that she saw along  aisle seven

It wasn’t just the blood and sweat and tufts of ripped out hair,

There were beads and thongs and chillums and some dentures too were there

And zimmer frames in fractured bits lay scattered on the floor

The mob had clearly lost the plot in that toilet paper war

Kev jumped in his 4X4 – it was loaded to the max

The roof racks too were piled high with dunny paper stacks

He tied them down with fence wire that he’d found along the road  

He could barely squeeze into his seat so bulky was the load

Some watching folk were heard to say that the optics weren’t so classy

It looked akin one punter quipped to a bus from Varanasi

Now as he made his way back home Kev smiled with satisfaction

And listened to the news a while to catch up on the action

He heard some bloke from way down south - they say his name was Scott

He talked until Kev’s ears turned blue - by cripes he talked a lot

Said Scott was sounding quite upset that hoarding had occurred   

“You tell em, mate” responded Kev – “that behaviour’s quite absurd”

As he drove toward the valley steep, there came a mighty storm

The water fell in tanker loads – this wasn’t quite the norm

Now the thing with toilet paper when it cops a lot of rain

It gets too bleeding heavy so the ute was under strain

Kev raced towards a little ford – t’was most times clear and dry

But owing to the torrent, it was running two foot high

He hit the water at high speed and the ute began to plane

He hooted with excitement as it veered from lane to lane

But the thing was so top-heavy that it flipped upon its side

And down that raging torrent, poor Kev was seen to slide.

Now far downstream in Marshall’s Creek where the mangrove jack do play

And the ospreys soar upon the wind in search of piscine prey

They say Kev’s ghost is prone to roam on a dark and moonless night

And fisherfolk have lost their wits when they see that fearsome sight

He wraith-like moves along the bank – oft shouting in frustration

About the fact he’s missed some years of blissful defecation

                                                                       

So let this be a lesson to youse hoarders one and all

If you’re going to hoard shitpaper, don’t stack it up too tall

And if you’ve taken umbrage, at the content of my ditty

Well that’s OK  - it‘s quite alright to feel a little shitty.

Don't you love the imagery of " ... all our sphincters clenched in fear"???

Onya, Greg, keep up the good work!

...


Herewith photos of some of the things we have been doing:

Lunch with friends Sue & Frank Tavares at their lovely home in Jerrabomberra - our first "social gathering" in a few weeks - up to 5 people can visit private homes now.

Vera's typical 'uniform' when she goes for her morning walk every day: hat & face-mask. Winter is here (daily minimums near 0C, maximums 12 - 15C), so she normally wears a good jacket.

Lots of people walking along Lake Burley Griffin, especially on the weekends.

A view of the Lake.

Statues of Prime Minister John Curtin and his Treasurer Ben Chifley; they usually stayed at the Kurrajong Hotel and walked the 800m to Parliament House every day.  When Curtin died in 1945 Ben became leader of the Labor Party and Prime Minister.

Good friends Maria Helena and Paul Nicoll. Paul was a Senior Executive with the Australian National Audit Office, and is now in retirement an Adjunct Lecturer at the University of Canberra (UC). Maria Helena and Paul usually spend half of each year in Brazil, but not this year.

Vera & me in our apartment in Kingston, Canberra. I had a problem with my achilles tendon for 5 weeks - finally solved with acupuncture - so good to be active again. Vera is wearing a top she bought in India.

...

Best wishes, stay healthy and keep smiling.

Vera & Alex Olah
Canberra, Australia
Friday, 29 May 2020.