Post #229 19 July 2020

Gentlefolk,


I have been doing a summary of issues relating to the Covid-19 (CV19) pandemic every 10 days.  This is the eleventh post in the sequence and covers the period 9 to 18 July 2020. Breaking it down into 10 day segments helps me make sense of the medical & economic tsunami which has hit the world.

This will be my final post on CV19 - it completes the second 100 days since the CV19 pandemic started (I'm taking 1 January 2020 as the start date although I know that China claims the first cases were detected in mid-December; there were 27 known cases on 31 December 2019 when China officially notified the WHO of this mysterious new virus).

Timeline #1: first 100 days, 1 January – 9 April 2020 (Post #219).

Timeline #2: ten days, 10 – 19 April 2020 (Post #220).

Timeline #3: ten days 20 – 29 April 2020 (Post #221).
Timeline #4: ten days 30 April to 9 May 2020 (Post #222).
Timeline #5: ten days 10 - 19 May 2020 (post #223).
Timeline #6: ten days 20 - 29 May 2020 (post #224).
Timeline #7: ten days 30 May - 8 June 2020 (post #225).
Timeline #8: ten days 9 - 18 June 2020 (post #226).
Timeline #9: ten days 19 - 28 June 2020 (post #227).
Timeline #10: ten days 29 June - 8 July 2020 (post #228).
Timeline #11: ten days 9 - 18 July 2020 (post #229 - this one).

First (1) statistics, then (2) a summary of recent events.

(1) First, let's have a look at what the statistics show over  the 107 day period 3 April - 18 July 2020 (using a start date of 3 April when I began keeping track of cumulative statistics).

These figures show CUMULATIVE cases and deaths at the beginning and end of the 107 day period 3 April to 18 July. They give us a sense of the magnitude of this pandemic.  I have included the figures for 26 May, which is the half-way point in this period, to show how the numbers moved during this 107 day period.

Table 1: Cumulative cases and deaths, Global and Selected Countries.

Source: John Hopkins University / World Health Organisation (from SCMP) 

Date 2020	Global		Australia
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	1,002.159	51,485	5,116	24
26 May	5,467,945	344,731	7,118	102
18 July	14,041,992	596,374	11,441	118

Date	USA		Italy		Spain
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	236,339	5,648	115,242	13,915	110,238	10,096
26 May	1,657,441	98,034	230,158	32,877	235,400	26,834
18 July	3,647,715	139,255	243,967	35,028	260,255	28,420

Date	Iran		India		Indonesia
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	50,468	3,160	2,356	72	1,790	170
26 May	137,724	7,451	144,941	4,172	22,750	1,301
18 July	269,440	13,791	1,039,084	26,273	83,130	3,957

Date	Brazil		Russia		Nigeria
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	7,910	299	3,548	30
26 May	363,211	22,666	353,427	3,633	7,639	226
18 July	2,046,328	77,851	758,001	12,106	35,454	772

As at 18 July 2020 the top 10 countries by cumulative CV19 cases were: USA 3.7M; Brazil 2.1M; India 1.0M; Russia 758K; Peru 346K; Mexico 331K; Chile 326K; South Africa 324K; UK 295K; Iran 269K.  Now the USA and Latin America each represent close to 25% of total global cumulative cases.


To get a feel for what is actually happening TODAY it is better to look at "Active Cases" and especially "Serious/Critical Cases" (which have the biggest impact on a country's medical services). The following table shows Selected Countries ranked by the number of Serious/Critical Cases.

Table 2: Covid-19 Selected countries by ‘Active Cases’ and ‘Serious/Critical Cases’ on 19 May and 18 July 2020 (period of sixty days) (ranked by the number of Serious/Critical cases on 18 July 2020).

(I started noting these figures on 19 May 2020)

Country	Active Cases		Serious/critical cases
	On 19 May	On 18 July	On 19 May	On 18 July
Global	2,662,707	5,124,881	44,752	59,857
USA	1,102,647	1,886,675	16,852	16,660
India	57,951	360,460	n/a	8,944
Brazil	136,969	603,990	8,318	n/a
Iran	19,774	22,776	2,294	3,509
Russia	217,747	207,707	2,300	n/a
Spain	53,521	n/a	1,152	617
France	89,960	65,289	1,998	477
Germany	14,566	5,685	1,133	249
UK	n/a	n/a	1,559	142
Italy	66,553	12,456	749	50
Indonesia	12,495	37,339	n/a	n/a
Australia	569	3,162	12	26
Nigeria	4,183	20,049	7	n/a
China	82	252	8	3

Source: worldometers.info/coronavirus/   accessed 18 July 2020.  n/a = not available

Another milestone yesterday when global cumulative cases passed 14 million, with almost 600K deaths.  Table 3 (below) shows how Covid-19 has moved in millions of cumulative cases from the start when the first case was identified in Wuhan on 15 December 2019 to the present.

The spread of this virus is accelerating: by my calculation it took 110 days to reach the first 1 Million cumulative cases, then 13 days to reach the second Million, and only 4 days for the most recent Million (news reports said the latest 1 million took just 100 hours!).

Interesting that the increase in the number of cumulative deaths from previous Million cases fell significantly in about mid-May. That could reflect the USA and European countries getting on top of the pandemic at that time.

Table 3: Cumulative cases and deaths, by incremental-increases of one million cases

Date	No. of cumulative cases passed Million	Days from previous Million	Cumulative Deaths on that date	Increase in no. cumulative deaths from previous M
3 April 2020	1 million	110 (from 15 Dec 2019=zero)	51,485
16 April	2 million	13	127,792	76,307
28 April	3 million	12	208,292	80,500
11 May	4 million	13	280,912	72,620
22 May	5 million	11	330,054	49,142
1 June	6 million	10	370,074	40,020
9 June	7 million	9	403,486	33,412
17 June	8 million	8	438,689	35,203
24 June	9 million	7	473,454	34,765
29 June	10 million	6	500,108	26,654
5 July	11 million	6	525,578	25,470
10 July	12 million	5	554,925	29,347
15 July	13 million	5	574,114	19,189
18 July	14 million	4	596,374	22,260

Source: JHU/WHO (from SCMP)

Table 4 (below) shows cumulative cases and deaths per million population and also the Mortality Rate (ie the proportion who die of those infected).

Some of the statistics are puzzling: for example, why are the figures for Belgium so much higher than for neighbouring Netherlands and Germany? And why are deaths per population so much lower in Asian countries (such as China, Japan and South Korea) than elsewhere? And why does the Mortality Rate vary so much?

No doubt these questions, and others, will be answered when the WHO does its review of the pandemic.

Table 4: Cumulative Cases and Deaths per 1 million of population and Mortality Rate, top 10 countries by cumulative cases, and other selected countries.

Source: www.worldometers.info/coronavirus accessed 19 July 2020

Country	Total cumulative cases of CV19 per Million population	Total cumulative deaths from CV19 per Million population	Mortality rate % (cumulative deaths divided by cumulative cases)
Global	1,848	78	4.25
USA	11,573	431	3.82
Brazil	9,759	370	3.80
India	781	19	2.53
Russia	5,245	84	1.59
South Africa	5,913	83	1.44
Peru	12,998	394	3.70
Mexico	2,568	297	11.56
Chile	17,195	442	2.56
Spain	6,573	608	10.92
UK	4,331	667	15.37
Belgium	5,478	845	15.43
Netherlands	3,010	358	11.89
Germany	2,417	109	4.52
Sweden	7,650	556	7.27
Norway	1,665	47	2.83
Denmark	2,274	105	4.64
China	58	3	5.54
Japan	191	8	4.08
South Korea	267	6	2.15
Australia	448	5	1.03

Mortality rate = how many of those who get infected with CV19 die, calculated by cumulative deaths divided by cumulative cases).

My first post in this series was Post #219 which covered the first 100 days of this pandemic (1 January - 9 April 2020). At the end of that post I posed the question "What will the second 100 days be like?" Well, now we know.

On 9 April 2020 Global cumulative cases totalled 1.5M (now 14M), the USA was at 423K (now 3.7M), Brazil was 14,347 (now 2.1M), and India had less than 6,000 cases (now 1M).  The epicenter of the pandemic shifted from China, on to Europe (Italy, Spain, France and the UK), then to the USA, and now to Latin America. I suspect that India and neighbouring countries may be next in line, perhaps followed by Africa.

Sadly, after 200 days CV19 is still active and indeed is accelerating globally. It appears under control in East Asia (China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Thailand, Vietnam), Australasia (Australia, New Zealand, Pacific Islands) and most of Europe, but is spreading fast in the USA and Latin America, in India and Pakistan, and in parts of Africa.

There is a frantic search for a vaccine, but that is still months away.

In the meantime, the world economy has been smashed with most countries in recession as demand plummeted. Tens of millions of jobs have been lost, especially in industries related to tourism, travel, hospitality and retail.  The full negative effects have been cushioned by the massive stimulus packages rolled out, but the day of reckoning can't be far off for many economies. This is certainly the most dire economic time since the Great Depression of the 1930s and the effects will be felt for years to come.

The American election is 100 days away - the world is watching, fascinated, all eyes on Trump (and Biden).

We live in interesting times!

(2) So, what's been happening around the world in the last 10 days?  

Events and Announcements which caught my eye during the 10 day period 9 - 18 July 2020 (with a focus on the USA, which attracts most media coverage).

(Compiled by Alex Olah from various media sources, including The New York Times, CNN, BBC, SCMP, Australian Broadcasting Corporation ABC, The New Daily)

 (Note: $ = US dollars unless otherwise stated)

Day	Date	Event / Announcement
191	9 July  2020	USA: Another tragic milestone: cumulative cases passed 3M today, and 132K deaths; new daily record of 59K cases. Fortunately the mortality rate is down from almost 3,000 per day in April/May to about 600 now. Positivity rates (% of those tested who are +ve) are high in some States: eg Arizona 25%, Texas 20%, Florida 16% (Miami-Dade County 33%). WHO says a rate of less than 5% for two weeks shows the virus is under control. 35 States plus Washington DC and Puerto Rico have some form of mask requirement. United Airlines said it may furlough 36K staff (40% of total) when govt wage assistance ceases end-September. Brooks Brothers, the oldest clothing store in the USA (founded 1818), filed for bankruptcy. Ivy League Universities announced the suspension of all competitive sports until the end of 2020.
192	10 July	China: Banned imports from 23 meat processing companies in the US, Brazil, Germany and UK which have recorded outbreaks of CV19. India: Cumulative 794K cases, 22K deaths; 27K yesterday – new daily record. Mexico: Cumulative cases 282K, deaths 34K; yesterday new daily record of 7,280. Norway: From 15 July will ease travel restrictions to/from 20 European countries. Hong Kong: Reported 42 new CV19 cases (of which 34 were locally transmitted) yesterday, they’re calling it a 3rd Wave; all schools will be closed from Monday. Brazil: As internal demand shrinks, imports are falling faster than exports – predictions of a $50B trade surplus this year. Australia: Victoria yesterday 288 new cases – a record.  Melbourne locked-down for 6 weeks. The Prime Minister announced that returning residents will be limited to 4,000 a week (down from 7K); returnees will have to pay for A$3,000 for their 14 day supervised hotel quarantine. Queensland opened its borders to people from other States, except Victoria.
193	11 July	USA: New daily record with 63,643; Nine States have recorded new daily records. Belgium: Has made wearing masks mandatory in indoor settings. France: Legislation on the “Health Emergency” has expired. UK: Will introduce a $3B Green Home Program, the main component is a home insulation package. Singapore: Despite a $67B stimulus package, the PAP’s vote in the general election fell by 8% to 61% - still won a big majority.. Airlines: IATA estimates that global airlines will lose $84B this year, and shed 1M jobs. Emirates said it will reduce staff by 9K (on top of the 6K already).
194	12 July	USA: Number of cases rising in 40 States; California, Texas, Florida and Arizona are epicentres; Florida new daily record 15,300. CDC said that 40% of cases are asymptomatic (show no symptoms). India: Super-star actor Amitabh Bachchan tested positive, as did his son. Australia: 273 new cases in Victoria. New cluster in Sydney.
196	14 July	USA: White House seems to be discrediting Dr Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute for Infectious Diseases who has been the key expert on the Advisory Panel. Trump said Fauci has "made many mistakes”. California back-tracks and orders indoor restaurants, bars, gyms to close; schools opening will be postponed (Trump is pushing for all schools in the US to open by early September). South Africa: 12,000 new cases per day; Govt is re-imposing a curfew and the ban on alcohol sales. UK: Will make wearing of masks in shops mandatory.
197	15 July	USA: Decision to expel foreign students who only have on-line classes was reversed following court appeal by 30 States and Universities. There are an estimated 1 million foreign students in USA (including 360K from China). 67,492 new cases in US, new daily record. 14 day change of cases up 51%, of deaths up 29%. Venezuela: Caracas locked down again after spike in cases. Mexico: Ban on non-essential travel to USA extended by a month to 21 August.
200	18 July	Global: New milestones: 14 million cumulative cases (the latest 1 million took just 100 hours). 260K new cases yesterday, a new daily record (biggest increases in USA, Brazil, India and South Africa). USA now 3.7M cumulative cases, Brazil passed 2M cases and India passed 1M cases. Cumulative global deaths rose by 7,360, highest since 10 May. USA: 77K new cases yesterday, new daily record. The 14 day change trend: cases up 39%, deaths up 47%. Big increases in Florida, Texas and Arizona. President Trump considering banning visits by members of the Communist Party of China (92M members, including many high-profile business executives).  USA removed Hong Kong’s preferential trade status (as punishment for new National Security Law imposed by Beijing). Debate on mandatory wearing of masks becoming politicised. President Trump has started “Tele-Rallies” (instead of in-person rallies). California announced that schools in most counties (representing 80% of State’s school population) will not re-open in September. The CEO of Microsoft (which owns Linkedin) said that over 200 million people will lose their jobs world-wide and need re-training. China: China’s economy grew 3.2% in Q2 (after contracting by 6.8% in Q1). Spain: Surge in cases in Catalonia region, Barcelona locked-down. Australia: Unemployment rate officially 7.8%, but ‘real rate’ probably twice that number. Federal Govt announced “JobTrainer” program, $2B for 340K trainees and 190K apprentices. In response to spike in cases in Melbourne and Sydney, Federal Parliament will reconvene on 24 August (instead of 4 August).

So, that's 200 days since the pandemic took off on 1 January 2020.  It's been a wild ride.

Wonder what the 3rd 100 days will bring?  Most likely more misery and trauma. Day 300 of 2020 will be Monday 26 October 2020 (just a week before the USA election) - let's do a review at that time.

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A couple of charts caught my eye.

The Tik Tok short-video app has taken off during CV19 lock-downs. But, like ZOOM, it is being targeted by anti-Chinese sentiment. For example, India recently banned Tik Tok in response to border clashes with China. But as you can see this app has been very popular in India - wonder how the Govt ban will work there???

This graph of Chinese imports and exports, shows exports are picking up again after a dramatic fall in Q1 2020 when CV19 was at its worst in China. Much to Trump's chagrin, China is still recording huge trade surpluses because imports have fallen more than exports (India is experiencing the same).  

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Herewith photos of some of the activities in which we were involved during the 10 day period 9 - 18 July 2020.


Andrew, Caroline, Eddie & Jay visited us from Sydney for 3 days (Eddie was on NSW school holidays).

We visited the National Arboretum; great views of Canberra from up there. From left: me, Eddie (6 years old), Caroline, Vera, Jay (3) carried by Andrew.

Vera & Caz inside the Visitors Centre at the Arboretum - impressive building, lots of wood.

We did a walk through the Jerrabomberra Wetlands, not far from our apartment. Saw a mob of kangaroos (the two on the left were 'fighting').

A visit to the National Gallery, just 5 minutes drive from our apartment.

One of the Gallery's treasures Jackson Pollock's "Blue Poles".  When Prime Minister Whitlam authorised its purchase for $1.3m in 1974 he was widely condemned, but it is priceless now.  

In the National Gallery. 

Kids jumping in front of the National Portrait Gallery. 

Coffee time, Andrew & Vera.

Jay and Eddie engrossed in mobiles.

It was great to see our grandkids again, Jay is 3 and a little darling, Eddie is 6 and seems so mature.

We drove to Narooma at the South Coast to visit my sister; stopped at the Eurobodalla Botanic Garden near Bateman's Bay to meet Barbara Roberts.

Vera with Barbara Roberts at the Botanic Gardens, where Barb is a volunteer. The Gardens were smashed during the bushfires. 

Re-growth taking place in the Botanic Gardens - it is quite extraordinary how Eucalypts survive and respond to fire. This region (including the nearby village of Mogo) was very badly damaged by fire last December.

Vera with Angie at her cozy home in Narooma. 

Angie showed us the local Community Garden where she is a member.

We did a nice walk along the coast from Kianga to Dalmeny; one beautiful beach after another. We were blessed with good weather, sunny days but still quite cool (max 16C).

Local artists 'decorated' this public toilet block. 

Vera & Angie picking lemons in Angie's garden. 

We had lunch with Bernie Ryan at the Catalina Country Club in Bateman's Bay.  Bernie and Jen were our neighbours when we lived in Waramanga 35 years ago.  They moved to the coast in 2006 and we visited them in their lovely home near Malua Bay - but it was totally destroyed by fire on 31 December 2019. Tough to start again at our age!

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That's it for this post.

As mentioned, this is the last post with a special focus on the CV19 pandemic.  It's been interesting following CV19 developments closely over the last few weeks, but now things are getting back to normal (at least in our region of Australia) and my focus will return to our daily lives.

Of course, with the recent spike in CV19 cases in Melbourne (around 300 per day - still small numbers, but we have seen how rapidly this virus can spread if not contained) and now in Sydney, the situation can change quickly.

We are hoping to drive up to Brisbane in August to see Jen & Tom & boys and other friends, but will have to see how things develop in the next two weeks.

...

Best wishes, stay healthy and keep smiling.

Vera & Alex Olah
Canberra, Australia
Sunday, 19 July 2020