Tuesday, 27 February 2024

Post #275 27 February 2024

 

Gentlefolk,


This post describes some of our activities during the period 1 - 27 February 2024 (we will visit Adelaide for a few days, hence the earlier date of this post).


The contents of this post are in the following sequence:

Photos of our activities during 1 - 27 February 2024.

News items which caught my eye in period 1 - 27 February 2024.

International Trade.

A bit of fun.



Herewith photos of our activities in February:



Yuni Ryan's 60th birthday party was great fun. I met Peter when we both worked at the Australian Embassy in Jakarta in 1988-91. He was in the Defence Section, while I was in theTrade Section. 
 


Some of the guests wore fancy dress.


A group of musicians entertained with Indonesian songs.


Vera & Ketut Nanik at Yuni's birthday bash.




Fun concert by Shortis & Simpson, with Nigel and Beth (owner managers of Smith's Alternative Cafe).
Wonderful entertainers, we are S&S groupies!





I attended Thomas McCoy's U3A creative computing training course on Scratch 3, used to teach kids coding and software. Will it help me communicate with grandkids Eddie and Jay?



Tending my parent's graves at Gunghalin Cemetery.



U3A Australian History course started again; organiser Judy Bentley.



This month several activities related to Chinese New Year on 10 February; welcome the Year of the Dragon.  


Chinese New Year celebrations at Dickson.



The ACFS's Carol and Angela selling lanterns at Dickson.



President of ACFS Carol Keil welcomed guests at the lunch for CNY.



Indonesian music group performed at Canberra's Multicultural Festival; Vera played ukulele.



Musicians Yetty, Marcia, Betsy, Marioleyn, and Vera




Indonesian dance group Borobudur Dancers at the Multicultural Festival.


Indonesian dancer at Multicultural Festival.



Lunch with Jim O'Callaghan and Patrick O'Hara.



We had 46 participants at the Lantern-making Workshop this year (21 adults and 25 children).










Vera & Jean at the Lantern-making Workshop. Jean is the main organiser and does a great job.






Lunch with former AUSTRADE colleagues: Jim Enright, Pat Stortz, Geoff McKie, Pater Kane, me, Brendan Dyson, and Ian Ffrench.






The Lantern Festival is held 2 weeks after Chinese New Year and marks the end of these celebrations. It is the main public activity organised by the Australia China Friendship Society (acfs.org.au) every year. There is a lot of organising involved. Carol Keil does an amazing job, assisted by, among others, Jean Norman, Brian Keil, Neil Birch, Vincent Wong, and Tanja Naeher & Michael.







A good crowd, estimated at 600+ people, attended the Lantern Festival.  It was entertaining watching all the performances of Chinese music and dancing. The highlight was the Lion Dance followed by the lantern parade around the Beijing Garden.  We were blessed with nice weather this year.




Cost of fuel has increased since last month. Costco is usually the cheapest in Canberra.




......

 

News items which caught my eye 1 - 27 February 2024.

($ are US dollars unless otherwise shown)

Global

 

Lunar New Year (Feb 10) was celebrated in many Asian countries.

USA struck dozens of Iran-associated targets in Syria and Iraq, in retaliation for attack on Tower 22 US military base in Syria.

USA & UK continued attacks on Houthi sites in Yemen.

Farmer protests in several EU countries and India.

Shell reported a profit in 2023 of $28B (down from $40B in 2022); paid UK tax of $1.1B.

Michelle O’Neill (Sinn Fein) inaugurated as First Minister of the Northern Ireland Assembly, following end of a boycott by DUP of the May 2022 election.

F1: Lewis Hamilton (39) will join Ferrari after 11 years with Mercedes.

Extensive wildfires in Chile, 130+ dead.

Pakistan elections: although he was locked up, Imran Khan’s party PTI won 93 seats (of 336).

Buckingham Palace announced that King Charles is being treated for cancer.

Ukrainian born Karolina Shiino (26) controversially crowned Miss Japan (she lived there since 5); but later resigned following revelations of an affair with a married man.

Current world record Marathoner Kelvin Kiptum (24) 2 hours 35 seconds died in a car crash in Kenya.

Indonesian election was won by Prabowo Subianto (72) and running mate Gibran (36) (Gerindra Party) with 58% of vote. They will be inaugurated in October.  

Japan and UK economies both entered technical recessions with two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

Putin’s main political rival, Alexei Navalny (47) died in a Siberian prison. 

The German Parliament (407-226) passed a law decriminalizing the personal use of cannabis.

Sweden will become the 32nd member of NATO (Hungary & Turkey dropped opposition). Finland joined a year ago.

 

Israel – Hamas (Gaza)

Israel – Hamas/Gaza: Now an estimated 30,000 Palestinians have died in Gaza, majority women and children; another 70,000 injured (with little medical help available, many will die). UN repeated warnings of widespread hunger./disease.

Several countries (incl US) expressed concern at plans by Israel to attack Rafah which houses around 2M Palestinians (many fled from the north).

USA sanctioned 4 Israeli Settlers for violence n the West Bank.

USA vetoed a resolution in the Security Council calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza (13 members supported the motion, UK abstained).

800+ serving officials in the USA and Europe signed petitions calling for more balanced policies related to Gaza.

A Dutch court halted the export of F35 jet parts to Israel.

Big demonstrations in several cities around the world calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.

Brazilian President Lula accused Israel of genocide in Gaza.

WFP stopped deliveries of food aid to Gaza due to chaotic situation.

 

Russian invasion of Ukraine

24 February 2nd anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Russia – Ukraine prisoner swap, 195 each.

EU leaders agreed on non-military aid package to support Ukraine’s budget: $33B loans and $17B grants.

Ukraine sea-drones attacked ships in Russia’s Black Sea fleet (estimated 20% of the fleet has been destroyed or damaged).

Ukrainian missiles shot down a Russian A-50 surveillance plane (the second).

Military chief General Zaluzhnyi was replaced by General Oleksandr Syrskyi.

Ukrainian troops pulled out of Avdiivka, Dontesk.

President Zelensky said that Ukraine had lost 31,000 military since the Russian invasion (US intelligence agencies put the figure much higher).

 

USA

 

Federal Appeals Court (3 judges, unanimous) rejected Trump’s claims of total immunity – they said that he can be prosecuted on charges of plotting to overturn the 2020 election.

Trump won the South Carolina Primary for GOP presidential nominee (beat Nikki Haley by 20 points)

The HoR voted 214-213 to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas (first Cabinet Secretary to be impeached since 1876).

NYC Judge Arthur Engoron fined Trump $355M for fraudulently inflating the value of his properties - he is appealing, but in the meantime interest charges are accuring. Trump was also fined $83M for defaming the reputation of E Jean Carroll. 

On Trump’s instructions Republicans blocked the bipartisan Border deal, and the foreign aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.

Trump expressed anger that only 11 (of 31) NATO members have reached the target of 2% of GDP spending on defence (Poland 3.9%, USA 3.5%).

Trump launched sneakers and cologne made under license using his name.

Democrat Tom Suozzi won the NYC HoR seat vacated by George Santos.

A US drone killed leader of Kataib Hezbollah in Baghdad.

NFL 58th Super Bowl played in Las Vegas on Sunday 11/2 was watched by an average of 123M. San Fran 49ers were leading at half time, then KC Chiefs came back to tie the score, taking the game into overtime. Chief’s quarterback Mahomes threw a touchdown with 3 seconds to go to win the game 25-22. Singer Usher starred in the half-time show. There was a shooting during the victory street parade in Kansas City (1 dead 30 injured).

US inflation rate was 3.1% (down from 3.4%).

20th anniversary of founding of Facebook. Meta (FB, Instagram, WhatsApp, Oculus) reported Q4 2023 revenue of $40B and profit of $14B.

Elon Musk announced that his company Neuralink has completed the first implant of a wireless chip in a human brain.

Trainers worn by Michael Jordan during his 6 NBA Championship wins sold for $8M.

A 500km-wide “atmospheric river” hit California, caused widespread damage (strong winds, mud slides, flooding).

Jennifer Crumbley (45) mother of school shooter Ethan (he killed 4, wounded 7 at Oxford High School, Michigan), found guilty of 4 counts of involuntary manslaughter (“gross negligence”). Ethan’s father James will face trial in March.

American TV host Tucker Carlson interviewed Pres Putin in Moscow.

The FCC banned AI generated scam robo calls.

The Supreme Court of Alabama’s decision that frozen embryos are children is expected to have a huge negative impact on IVF treatment.

American company Intuitive Machines successfully landed a spacecraft on the moon, the first by a commercial firm, but it tipped over on touchdown.

Valuation of Silicon Valley chip-maker Nvidia passed $2T (behind Microsoft, Apple, and Saudi Aramco).

 

Australia

Prime Minister Albanese (60) and partner Jodie Haydon (45) announced their engagement.

Australian citizen Dr Yang Heng jailed in China in 2019 given death sentence for spying (but can be commuted). He decided not to appeal.

Construction giant St Hilliers in receivership.

Indigenous activist Dr Lowitja O’Donoghue, died aged 91; she was “Australian of the Year” in 1984.

Brumby rugby player Rob Valetini won the John Eales Medal for Best Player.

Govt’s industrial relations changes were approved by Parliament; minimum standards for gig workers; right to disconnect without prejudice.

Report by former ACCC head Alan Fels uncovered price gouging by big business (banks, supermarkets, airlines, energy companies).

The Aust Parliament voted 86-42 to call for Julian Assange’s return home (his final appeal against extradition from the UK to the US is imminent).

American singer Taylor Swift played to huge sell-out crowds in Melbourne and Sydney.

39 illegal immigrants from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh were apprehended in the far north of Western Australia and sent to detention camp on Nauru.

Australian Navy (above water) to get $11B increased funding over ten years.

The price of nickel has fallen sharply in the last year, putting in doubt the future of mines and BHP's nickel smelter in Kalgoorlie. 

 

 

 ......



INTERNATIONAL TRADE

My 30 year career as an Australian Trade Commissioner gave me an interest in matters related to international trade.  I subscribe to Bloomberg's excellent daily newsletter "Supply Lines - tracking Covid-19's impact on trade" (former title 'Trade Matters').  

Here are some of the more interesting graphs in the Bloomberg newsletter during February 2024; they are largely self-explanatory.


























































......


A bit of fun:














If only it were that simple....




Barnaby Joyce (National Party MP) was found in this state last week.




......





That's if for this post.

Canberra weather has been great this month: warm days and cool nights. Long may it last!


Best wishes, stay healthy and keep smiling.

Vera & Alex Olah
Canberra, Australia
Tuesday 27 February 2024










































Wednesday, 31 January 2024

Post #274 31 January 2024

 Gentlefolk,


This post describes our main activities during the month of January 2024.


The contents of this post are in the following sequence:

Photos of our activities during 1 - 31 January 2024.

News items which caught my eye in January 2024.

International Trade.


First, photos of our activities in January:



We spent two days at the Canberra International Tennis Tournament at the ACT Tennis Centre in Lyneham; prize money this year was US$320K. Many of the participants went on to try their luck in the Australian Open in Melbourne.


Harriet Dart (England) in the Women's Singles final.


Here is Dominik Koepfer (29, German) accepting the Men's Singles trophy. He beat Jakub Mensik (19, Czech Rep) in the final. Age & experience versus youth and strength. 
In the Women's Singles, Nurid Parrizas Diaz (Spain) beat Harriet Dart (Englsnd).
The beauty of this tournament is that the spectators are just 20 m from the court. Lots of great tennis.



I met Paul Flint way back in 1965, and we had a lot of good times since. Paul (78) died from cancer just before Xmas. He had a private family funeral; we attended the wake.  RIP Paul!



We visited Lanyon Homestead with Sue and Frank. It is just south of the Tuggeranong Valley - in fact you can see some homes in the distance.  John Lanyon and James Wright bought leases in 1834; Lanyon returned to England two years later to see his ailing father and stayed, In 1849 Wright sold to Andrew Cunningham who built the current Homestead. In 1926 his descendants sold to the Osbourne family; the Field family owned it from 1930 to 1971. It is now a museum managed by the ACT Govt.
 







Lanyon Homestead as it is today, an important part of Canberra's history.





George Sanderson was a classmate at Monaro High School in Cooma.  He later settled in Canada. Interestingly we ended up having parallel careers, George as a Canadian Trade Commissioner and me as an Australian Trade Commissioner. George's son Michael spent 2023 travelling and working around Australia. He visited us in Canberra before his return to Calgary. A very nice young man; we actually had a lot in common as Michael spent some years teaching English in South Korea and Vietnam. 




We took Michael to various places in Canberra: Mt Ainslie and Red Hill lookouts; Old and New Parliament House; the ANU (where his father studied); the National Botanical Gardens, and the Australian War Memorial. I hate to admit that the best museum in Canberra is a museum to the horrors/glories of war. The AWM is currently undergoing a $550M upgrade.  



We always think of the ill-fated Gallipoli (Turkey) campaign of 1915 as "Australia and New Zealand", but actually there were many more British and French (not to mention Turkish) casualties. 


Our guide explaining the Wall of Honour at the AWM.


We found an incredible lego model of Parliament House on display at the Australian Parliament House which was inaugurated in 1988. An impressive building. 


Our guide at the National Botanical Garden.


Vera & I went to Sydney for a few days. Eddie's team won a soccer tournament played at Woollahra Oval (where Andrew played rugby union for Eastern Suburbs 30 years ago). 



Eddie was named Most Valuable Player, a great achievement. Well done, Eddie!!!




I did the Bronte to Bondi coastal walk, one of my favorites. A view of Bondi Beach.


The Icebergs Club and sea pool at the southern end of Bondi Beach.


Back in Canberra, we went the Canberra United v Melbourne Victory women's soccer game at McKellar Park. Victory scored in the last minute to win 3-2. It was an entertaining game. lots of good skills on both sides.



Canberra United fans filled the stands. 



To commemorate the 100th anniversary (1921 - 2020) of the Archibald, the Art Gallery of NSW chose 100 paintings which had competed for the Archibald Prize - 80 finalists and 20 winners.  Noel and I had a look at the Archie 100 at National Portrait Gallery in Canberra on 21 January.



Our guide of the Archies 100 Exhibition.








A portrait of JF Archibald whose bequest in 1920 founded the Archbald Prize.



The first winner of the Archibald Prize, in 1921, was a portrait of architect Harold Desbrowe-Annear.











The 1956 winner was a portrait of renowned Indigenous painter Albert Namatjira. 






Winner of the 1996 Archibald Prize was this self portrait by Wendy Sharpe.








Vincent Namatjira, great-grandson of Albert, submitted this entry in 2018. The three men in the painting are, from left: Chuck Berry (American musician), Albert Namatjira (driving the ute), and Vencent Namatjira. 








This 2001 painting featuring beloved comedians Roy & HG was the "People's Choice " and the "Packer's Choice", but it did not win the Big Prize.  








A "drone show" (comprising 600 drones) was the highlight of the Australia Day celebrations.





Big crowd on the shores of Lake Burley Griffin to watch the drone show.




The Australia Indonesia Association hosted a BBQ lunch by the Lake on Australia Day.






Dinner with friends at Yowani Golf Club: Neil, Nadia, Helen, John, Dominic, me, Michael, Vera, Donna, and Geoff.


I visited this exhibition with Noel and Tien. 

















The cost of petrol at Costco, end January 2024. 





Books I read in January




I was excited when Eddie Jones was appointed coach of Australia's Rugby Union team, the Wallabies, in early 2023. But in the Rugby World Cup in France we did not advance, for the first time, from the 'group stage'. Eddie resigned shortly afterwards, and became coach of the Japanese Rugby Team. This book, written in 2021 when Eddie was still coach of England, provides an  interesting insight into his coaching philosophy and approach.
But, somehow, his strategy did not work with the Wallabies in 2023???





A good read. Sarah is perceptive and a fine writer. Highly recommended.
The family now lives on Sydney's northern beaches.









We saw 4 films this month
(My ratings: Napoleon 3 stars, Ferrari 3.5 stars, Priscilla 2.5 stars, Anatomy 4 stars)




This movie didn't quite do it for me: my rating 3 stars. The battle scenes were impressive but I would have liked more development  of Napoleon's character and more on the complex relationship between Napoleon and Josephine.


Good acting, but Penelope Cruz wasn't convincing. Better than Napoleon, 3.5 stars.





Priscilla was a 14 year old schoolgirl when she met Elvis (24, already a star). She lived in a "gilded cage", totally dominated by Elvis, his surroundings and his friends. She left after 6 years. 2.5 stars.





Did he fall or was he pushed? Great dialogue and acting. 4 stars!!!








......
......


News items which caught my eye in January 2024.

($ are US dollars unless otherwise shown)

Global

 

Denmark: Queen Margrethe of Denmark announced her abdication; her son became King Frederik 10th.

Japan: A 7.6 magnitude earthquake off Japan caused serious damage. A giant Bluefin Tuna fetched $788,000 at Tokyo’s largest fish market. Japan’s spacecraft “Moon Sniper” successfully landed on the moon.

Israel: The Supreme Court ruled the new judicial reforms limiting the power of courts were unconstitutional. Israeli strikes killed Hamas and Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon. IDF withdrew the 36th Division from Gaza, after 80 days. Intense fighting around Khan Younis. Israel accused UNRWA staff of assisting Hamas in the 7 October attack; 12 staff suspended pending investigation; donor countries USA, UK, Australia, Canada etc 'paused' donations to UNRWA.

International Court of Justice: South Africa accused Israel of genocide; the Court noted the humanitarian crisis and ordered Israel to reduce civilian casualties and to facilitate aid.

Gaza: The UN said thousands of Palestinians are starving in Gaza. The UN Sec Gen called for a 2 State solution, but rejected by Israel. Israeli tanks attacked a UN Shelter in Gaza with 12+ killed, 75 injured.

Electric Vehicles: in Q4 2023 BYD (526K) passed Tesla (485K) to become the biggest producer of EVs.

Iran: ISIS claimed responsibility for twin blasts in Kerman which killed 103 and injured 284. Iran attacked targets in Iraq, Syria and Pakistan (Pakistan retaliated).

Jordan: An American military base was attacked by a drone, 3 killed 30+ injured. Biden blamed Iran, promised retaliation.

Darts: the World Dart Championship was won by Luke Humphries who beat 16yo Luke Littler in the final. Ten days later, Littler beat world #2 Michael van Gerwen to win the Bahrain Masters, his first senior championship.

South Africa: After serving 11 years for killing Reeva Steenkamp, Oscar Pistorius was released on parole.

Germany: Soccer legend Franz Beckenbauer died aged 78; his team won the World Cup as a player in 1974, and as a manager in 1990.

France: Macron appointed Gabriel Attal (34) as Prime Minister.

Norway: Govt approved commercial-scale deep sea mining.

PNG: Rioting and looting in Port Moresby, 15 dead; Govt declared a state of emergency.

Taiwan: The DPP’s William Tai Ching Te won the Presidency with 40% of the vote (his predecessor got 50% last election). But the DPP lost its majority in Congress. The KMT top scored with 158 seats.

Houthi in Yemen: The US and UK bombed Houthi sites in response to continued attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea.

Brazil: the rate of de-afforestation halved in 2023 to 5,153 sq km.

Smart phones: Apple (234M phones) 20% passed Samsung 19% of sales; Xiaomi was third.

India: PM Modi inaugurated a controversial new Hindu Temple in Ayodhya, built on the site of an old Mosque destroyed by Hindu extremists in 1992.

Canada: capped intake of foreign students to 360K pa.

Cameroon: started world-first mass vaccination program for Malaria.

Soccer: Australia beat Indonesia 4-0 to advance to the Quarterfinals of the Asian Cup in Qatar.

 

Russian invasion of Ukraine

UAE negotiated a prisoner swap between Russia and Ukraine.

UK PM Sunak pledged $3B in military aid to Ukraine for this year (missiles, artillery shells, and drones).

Ukraine claimed to have shot down a Russia A50 reconnaissance plane.

Ukrainian drones struck a food market in Donetsk (27+ dead) and a gas export terminal near St Petersburg.

Ukraine missiles downed a Russian military plane near Belgorod; all 74 passengers died (Russia said 65 were Ukrainian POWs to be exchanged).

Ukraine announced investigation into corruption charges in procurement of military supplies.

 

USA

 

Congress passed a short-term funding bill to avoid Fed Govt shutdown.

Economy: US GDP increased 2.5% in 2023 (1.9% in 2022). Inflation 3.4%.

In the Georgia case, Trump’s lawyers argued that he had Presidential Immunity while trying to overturn the 2020 election result.

The US Supreme Court agreed to hear arguments on Colorado’s decision to exclude Trump from the GOP primary, on the grounds that he had breached the 14th Amendment which forbids insurrectionists from holding office.

Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis participated in the GOP presidential hopefuls debate on 11 January just before the Iowa primary (Chris Christie had pulled out of the contest). Trump boycotted the debate again.

Iowa GOP primary caucuses: Trump 51%, DeSantis 21%, Haley 19%. Ramaswamy got 8% and announced his departure from the race; some days later Ron DeSantis also withdrew from the contest. Only 110K Iowans participated, down 40% from 2016.  

New Hampshire GOP primary: Trump 55%, Haley 43%.

Claudine Gay, President of Harvard, resigned following allegations of plagiarism and criticism by major donors that she did not take antisemitism seriously enough.

Trump was ordered to pay the NYT’s legal costs of $382K for his failed defamation case related to the Times publishing his tax records in 2018. Separately, Trump was ordered to pay $83M to Jean Caroll for defaming her.

Sec of State Antony Blinken toured the Middle East to stop a wider conflict.

The USA added 2.7M jobs in 2023; av hourly earnings rose 4.1%.

NYC sued 17 charter bus companies for transporting asylum seekers from Texas without authorisation.

The FAA grounded 171 Boeing 737 Max 9 after an Alaskan Airlines plane lost a piece of fuselage during a flight.

NFL: After 24 seasons, coach of the New England Patriots, Bill Belichick (71), resigned. He chose Tom Brady in the 2000 draft and they formed a winning combination.  Belichick had 24 seasons with the Patriots, during which they won 6 Super Bowls.

NFL: the Detroit Lions beat the LA Rams 24-23. The Lions first playoffs since 1992. Tickets for the Lions v Buccaneers game averaged a record $1,097 per seat (standing tickets were $700).

NFL Divisional Playoffs: SF 49ers beat Detroit Lions 34-31 (Lions led 17-0 at half time); KC Chiefs beat Baltimore Ravens 17-10.  So the 49ers will play the Chiefs in the Super Bowl in Las Vegas in 2 weeks.

Tiger Woods and Nike parted ways after 27 years.

US moon mission spacecraft ‘Peregrine’ suffered a fuel leak, attempt failed.

In 2023 the USA experienced 28 extreme weather events, each of which resulted in damage of over $1B and 492 deaths. Icy Winter storms affected much of the USA in mid-January 2024, causing widespread disruption and 90+ deaths.

DoJ report on the Uvalde school shooting identified many shortcomings.

 Drone attack on an American base in Jordan killed 3 soldiers and injured 35 (the US has 3,000 military in Jordan, 2,500 in Iraq, and 900 in Syria).

Charles Littlejohn, an IRS contractor, was sentenced to 5 years jail for leaking Trump's tax returns to the New York Times in 2020. 


Australia

Controversial Aussie journalist and film maker John Pilger died aged 89.

Heavy rain caused severe flooding along much of the East Coast.

Alex de Minaur beat Novak Djokovic in the semi-final of the Tennis United Cup, ending Djoko’s run of 43 consecutive wins in Australia.

David Warner retired from Test Cricket; he played 112 Test Matches, scored 8,786 runs (av 44.6), including 26 centuries and 37 half-centuries.

Captain of Australia’s Women’s Soccer team, Sam Kerr, suffered an ACL injury; she will probably miss the Paris Olympics.

Welshman Stephen Williams won the cycling Tour Down Under in Adelaide.

Australia’s population passed 27 million.

Australian Open Tennis Championship: Women’s Singles Aryna Sabalenka beat Zheng Qin Wen 6-3, 6-2. Men’s Singles Jannik Sinner (22) beat Daniil Medvedev (27) in 5 sets (an amazing game, Medvedev won the first 2 sets, but Sinner fought back). He is the second Italian to ever win a Grand Slam tournament.

 

China

Admiral Dong Jun was announced as China’s Minister for Defence.

In 2023 China’s shipbuilding output rose 12% to 42M DWT (about 50% of world output). China’s first built cruise ship started sea trails.

Major “Shadow Bank” ZEG filed for bankruptcy (assets $38B, debts $64B).

China’s exports estimated at $3.3T in 2023 of which main destinations ASEAN $524B, USA $500B, EU $500B. Vehicle exports totaled 4.9M units (up 58%).

Population: fell by 2M to 1,409M; Labour force (16 – 59yo) fell 11M; % of population over 65 rose to 20% (297M).

Economy: GDP grew by an estimated 5.2% in 2023, up from 3.3% in 2022. Investment in property dropped 9.6% in 2023 with home sales down 8.5% on sq m basis.

A judge in Hong Kong ordered property developer Evergrande to go into liquidation; unclear what effect this will have on Evergrande's projects in China.

 

 

 

 

Road to the White House 2024: upcoming State caucuses and primaries. 

15 January 2024

Iowa Republican presidential caucuses.

 

23 Jan

New Hampshire Presidential primary.


3 February

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary

 

6 Feb

Nevada Democratic Presidential Primary

 

8 Feb

Nevada Republican Presidential Caucuses

 

24 Feb

South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary

 

2 March

Idaho and Missouri Republican Caucuses

 

3 Mar

Washington DC Republican Presidential Primary

 

4 Mar

North Dakota Republican Presidential

 

5 Mar “Super Tues”

Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, primaries.

At this early stage it looks like a repeat Biden-Trump contest in November 2024.  


......



INTERNATIONAL TRADE

My 30 year career as an Australian Trade Commissioner gave me an interest in matters related to international trade.  I subscribe to Bloomberg's excellent daily newsletter "Supply Lines - tracking Covid-19's impact on trade" (former title 'Trade Matters').  

Here are some of the more interesting graphs in the Bloomberg newsletter during January 2024; they are largely self-explanatory.


























......



Jen's birthday is late-January. This photo of Jen & Tom was taken at her 21st birthday party in 1997 (the fun party was at our place in Curtin). They live in Brisbane and have 3 great sons. The eldest, Kurt (18), has just started an electrical apprenticeship. How the years have flown!



My sister Angie is an active member of the Rotary Club of Narooma.  Here she is dressed as "Mother Duckie" at the launch of the annual rubber duck race on the river.


My brother Andy with his son & family participated in the Open Day to celebrate 50 years of  Rarotonga Airport. 


That's it for this post. The first month of 2024 has passed already - all in a flash.  Summer in Canberra has been mild so far; we haven't used airconditioning yet, but there is still a month to go.

On a personal note, we finalised the contract to buy into the Halcyon Nirimba "Over 55s Lifestyle Village" (near Caloundra, Sunshine Coast Qld) and expect to re-locate there in about August 2024. Alex agonised over the decision to move (Vera more sanguine) - big change at our age, need to get it right.  But having made the decision, we are looking forward to an exciting new challenge.


Best wishes, stay healthy and keep smiling.

Vera & Alex Olah

Canberra, Australia

Wednesday 31 January 2024