Post #223 19 May 2020

Gentlefolk,

I am doing a summary of issues relating to Covid-19 (CV19) every 10 days.  This is the fifth post in the sequence and covers the period 10 to 19 May 2020.

Timeline #1: first 100 days, 1 January – 9 April 2020 (Post #219).

Timeline #2: ten days, 10 – 19 April 2020 (Post #220).

Timeline #3: ten days 20 – 29 April 2020 (Post #221).
Timeline #4: ten days 30 April to 9 May 2020 (Post #222)
Timeline #5: ten days 10 - 19 May 2020 (post #223 - this one).

I am hoping that by breaking it down into 10 day segments we can make more sense of the medical & economic tsunami which has hit the world.

(1) First, let's have a look at what the statistics show over  the 47 day period 3 April - 19 May 2020 (ten days is too short to appreciate trends, so the start is 3 April when I began keeping track of cumulative statistics).

Date 2020	Global		Australia
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	1,002.159	51,485	5,116	24
26 April	2,875,593	201,728	6,677	80
19 May	4,745.570	316,429	7,054	99

Date	USA		Italy		Spain
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	236,339	5,648	115,242	13,915	110,238	10,096
26 April	926,442	53,184	195,351	26,384	223,759	22,902
19 May	1,496,509	89,874	225.886	32,007	231,606	27,709

Date	Iran		India		Indonesia
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	50,468	3,160	2,356	72	1,790	170
26 April	89,328	5,650	26,283	780	8,607	720
19 May	122,492	7,057	95,698	3,025	18,010	1,191

Date	Brazil		Russia		Nigeria
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	7,910	299	3,548	30
26 April	57,382	3,918	74,588	681	1,095	32
19 May	245,595	16,370	290,678	2,722	5,959	182

The above figures show cumulative cases and deaths at the beginning and end of the 47 day period 3 April to 19 May. They give us a sense of the magnitude of this pandemic.  I have included the figures for 26 April, which is the half-way point in this period to give an indication of how the numbers moved during this time.

Overall, the curve seems to be flattening for developed countries such as the USA, Italy and Spain, but is increasing exponentially for Russia, Brazil and now India.

To get a feel for what is actually happening today it is better to look at "Active Cases" and especially "Serious/Critical Cases" (which have the biggest impact on a country's medical services). The following table shows Selected Countries ranked by the number of Serious/Critical Cases.

Covid-19 Selected countries by ‘Active Cases’ and ‘Serious/Critical Cases’ on 19 May 2020.

Country	Active Cases as at 19 May 2020	Serious/critical Cases as at 19 May 2020
Global	2,662,707	44,752
USA	1,102,647	16,852
Brazil	136,969	8,318
Russia	217,747	2,300
Iran	19,774	2,294
France	89,960	1,998
UK	?	1,559
Spain	53,521	1,152
Germany	14,566	1,133
Italy	66,553	749
India	57,951	?
Indonesia	12,495	?
Australia	569	12
China	82	8
Nigeria	4,183	7

Source: worldometers.info/coronavirus/  accessed 19 May 2020.

(2) So, what's been happening in the last 10 days?  The following is a short list of Events & Announcements in the period 10 May to 19 May 2020.

Covid-19 Timeline #5: 10 May to 19 May 2020                                            (days 131 – 140, since 1 January 2020)

Events and Announcements which caught my eye during this period (with a focus on the USA, which attracts most media coverage).

(Compiled from various media sources by Alex Olah)

 (Note: $ = US dollars unless otherwise stated)

Day	Date	Event / Announcement
131	10 May  2020	Global: Number of confirmed cases pass 4m; 280K deaths. USA: 20.5m jobs lost in April (highest monthly loss ever); unemployment now 14.7%. Govt buying agricultural products to support farmers and supply food banks. Former President Obama called Trump’s response to CV19 ‘chaotic’. More than 50% of deaths have been in nursing homes. Canada: Unemployment rose 5% in April, for a total of 13%. France: Extended ‘national emergency’ to 10 July. Recorded 80 deaths yesterday, the lowest in a month. UK: Tracing app launched.
132	11 May	UK: Foreign arrivals will have to self-isolate for 14 days (except France and Ireland). South Korea: Spike of  over 100 new cases linked to a man who visited several nightclubs. India: Railways to gradually restart services from tomorrow. Colombia: AVIANCA Airlines, Latin America’s 2nd largest, files for bankruptcy. Australia: 100 demonstrators in Melbourne against restrictions, tracing app, and 5G; 10 arrested.
133	12 May	Mortality rates: So far: Belgium 16%; France 15%; UK 14.5%; USA 6%; Germany 4.4%. China: Six new cases in Wuhan, the first for a month; Wuhan City Govt announced plans to test 11 million inhabitants over next ten days. USA: White House staff ordered to wear face masks (but not Trump or Pence). New York State to begin phased reopening on 15 May. Elon Musk re-started the Tesla factory against advice from Alameda County officials. UK: Richard Branson selling part of his space company to generate funds for Virgin Pacific. Ghana: A worker in a fish processing factory infected 533 others. Saudi Arabia: Following $9B budget deficit in Q1, Govt announced VAT will be increased from 5% to 15%, and Cost of Living subsidy for Public Servants ($267/month) will cease. France: Residents can now travel up to 100 km without a permit; primary schools reopened yesterday, high schools will open on 18 May. Germany: Bundesliga soccer will resume 16 May but without spectators; big events like festivals banned until end of August. Russia: Almost 11,000 new cases yesterday; now second highest cases after USA. Spain: From 15 May, foreign arrivals will have to self-isolate for 14 days. Australia: The Treasurer predicted the economy will contract by 10% in the June Quarter  (April-May-June), and unemployment will rise to 10%.
134	13 May	USA: Dr Anthony Fauci warned a Senate Committee that premature opening could have “serious consequences”; President Trump said Fauci’s comments were unacceptable. Dr Robert Redfield, Director of CDC, said that he had contact with Chinese counterparts on 2 and 3 January 2020, following China’s advice to the WHO on 31 December of “a cluster of cases of pneumonia”. Senator Lindsey Graham (R) of South Carolina introduced legislation titled “The Covid-19 Accountability Act” which would enable the President to impose punitive measures if China refused an open inquiry. The USA Supreme Court commenced hearings on whether President Trump’s tax returns can be made public. Facebook removed 2.5m posts selling CV19 materials. China: Published a detailed report “Reality check of US allegations against China on Covid-19”, refuting various theories. Imports from the US fell by 86% in March and 11% in April; President Trump said that he expected China to honour the Phase 1 Trade Deal which took effect on 15 February 2020. India: Govt announced a $270 billion stimulus package. France: Passed Spain for number of deaths; now 4th behind USA, UK, and Italy.
135	14 May	USA: The Dow Jones Index fell 2% on pessimistic comments by Dr Fauci and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. To punish China for the CV19 pandemic there was talk of the USA not honouring $1T in US Govt Securities held by China, but the idea was shelved (the USA has never before defaulted on debt). Russia: Over 10,000 new cases of CV19 for 11 consecutive days. Italy: Top soccer clubs resume training 18 May; competition to start 13 June. UK: Economy contracted by 2% in Q1; worse to come in Q2. Sweden: Govt advised against non-essential travel until 15 July. Belgium: Schools to gradually re-open from 18 May.
136	15 May	USA: Dr Rick Bright, senior official of Dept of Health, told a House Committee “there is no overall CV19 plan” and warned of a possibly terrible coming winter of combined flu and CV19. Trump dismissed his concerns. Last week 3 million new applications for jobless benefits; total filings for unemployment now 36.5m since mid-March. Administration said China “likely hacking virus vaccine research”. Cook County (Chicago, 58K) overtook Queens County with most cases. Italy: 150K to be tested in 2,000 towns & cities to check extent of CV19.
137	16 May	USA: “Operation Warp Speed” launched, to develop a vaccine by year’s end. Department Store J.C. Penny, 118 years old, filed for bankruptcy. Italy: Will permit free movement within Italy from 3 June. Spain: All arrivals must self-isolate for 14 days. Brazil: Health Minister Nelson Teich resigned after one month.
138	17 May	USA: House of Representatives passed a new $3 trillion stimulus package mainly for States and Local Govt; but Senate said 'too  soon'. California announced a budget deficit of $54B, blamed CV19. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) looking at installing temperature-monitoring equipment at 12 airports. Germany: Small anti-lockdown demonstrations in several cities. Thailand: Extended the ban on international flights until 30 June; some easing internally as new cases have averaged less than 10 in May.
139	18 May	USA: War of words developing between Trump and Obama. Testing in New York now 40,000 per day. UAE: Emirates Airlines cut 30,000 staff (30% of total). Japan: Economy contracted by 0.9% in Q1 2020, the second consecutive quarter of negative growth. Much bigger fall expected in Q2. India: Lock-down extended until 31 May. UK: Latest poll shows 39% approve of the Govt’s handling of CV19, 42% disapprove. Russia: Woman with CV19 gave birth to baby who tested positive (second such case after one in Peru).
140	19 May	WHO: World Health Assembly virtual meeting addressed by President Xi Jin Ping of China. Pledged $2B to WHO over next two years; Xi said a comprehensive review should be undertaken when the pandemic has been curtailed. 130 countries backed an independent and transparent investigation. USA: Early trials of vaccine by Moderna showed promise. Wall Street bounced back after a bad week; Dow Jones Index up 4% to 24,595. Preliminary analysis of CV19 deaths in NYC by racial groups: Afro-Americans 265 per 100,000, Hispanics 259, Whites 130, Asians 122. Similar findings in Los Angeles. EU: Germany and France pledge Euro500B for an EU Recovery Fund.

Many governments, especially USA led by President Trump, are saying the Covid-19 pandemic has transitioned from a medical crisis to an economic crisis; big push to re-open and re-start economies. Let's hope it is not too fast ......

Trump is desperate to get the economy up and running again as soon as possible - the election is less than 6 months away! He keeps deflecting blame, firstly criticising the WHO for incompetence, then saying China should have stopped the coronavirus before it spread, even his own CDC is being blamed for reacting too slowly. Trump and Pompeo both said the virus started in a Chinese laboratory, but refused to provide any proof.

'Teflon Trump' - he makes outrageous statements and claims but nothing sticks to him, he just goes his merry way. It is fascinating to follow American politics - never a dull moment - but it's also sad to see how divided the country is.

After more than three years of being attacked and belittled by Trump, former President Obama is now entering the fray.

...

The NAB Australian Business Conditions Index plunged to minus 22 in March 2020 and further to minus 34 in April 2020. The economy was in free-fall. It has all happened so quickly ...

Australia's unemployment rate shot up due to CV19; would have been much worse but for wage support by the govt to help companies keep staff on their books.  The travel, hospitality, tourism and higher education sectors have all been hit hard.

The Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg announcing the latest dismal economic figures. Scott Morrison narrowly won the "miracle election" a year ago, on 18 May 2019.  His popularity plunged during the Bush Fires late last year, but his quick actions to counter the Pandemic with massive support packages, and a willingness to listen to medical experts, have won widespread praise.

...

Some photos of things we have been involved in.

Vera had the cataract in her right eye done this morning, 19 May. Here she is with nurse Krista when I picked her up. It will take a few weeks for her eyes to settle down and then we'll see about new glasses (if required). Vera had her left eye done 2 weeks ago, the traffic this morning was noticeably busier  - people getting back to work ...

My mother's birthday was yesterday, 18 May, she would have been 100 years old. Dad's birthday was today, 19 May. He was 8 years older than Mom.  Thanks Aniko for the nice flowers at their graves!!!

My mother in 1940, aged 20. She was a very special lady.

Dad and Mom, about 1989.

Andrew, Caz and kids Eddie & Jay visited us from Sydney - because to the Covid-19 lockdown we hadn't seen them since February. Great to catch up. It's amazing how much kids change even in such a short time.

The Edmund Barton Building which used to house the Department of Trade and where I worked in 1983 before our posting to China. It is now occupied by the Australian Federal Police (AFP).

A statue of Edmund Barton who was Australia's first Prime Minister (1901 - 03). 

The Avenue of Flags down by Lake Burley Griffin.  We often walk here.

A new cafe has opened at Bowen Park near us.

The Kingston Foreshore is usually bustling with people, but now very quiet. Cafes have re-opened, which will bring activity back. Restaurants next month?

Our favourite restaurant at Kingston Foreshore - usually packed - now open for "take away" only. 

Autumn colours around Kingston, our suburb in Canberra.

This purple van and motor-bike caught my eye.

The van and bike are owned by Gray (Graeme) Herman who lives in Queanbeyan. He has fitted out the back of the van for camping - bed, kitchen, toilet.

 ...

That's it for this post.

Best wishes, stay healthy and keep smiling.

Vera & Alex Olah
Canberra, Australia
Tuesday 19 May 2020.