23 March 2014

23 March 2014

The mystery of the missing plane

It is now 15 days since the disappearance of MH370 on the morning of 8 March 2014.

Everyone was buoyed by Prime Minister Tony Abbott's announcement on Thursday that two large pieces of debris ('a solid lead') had been spotted by a satellite more than 2,000 km south-west of Perth, in the vast Southern Indian Ocean. Could this, at last, be a clue to the whereabouts of the missing plane?  Although excited by the news, I said to Vera that I hoped he hadn't "jumped the gun"; shouldn't he have waited until the evidence was more solid?

Sure enough, by the next day Mr Abbott was backtracking and qualifying his remarks.

I just  hope they find something down there.  The families of passengers have been through so many highs and lows.  I guess politicians can't resist the limelight, but they really need to constrain their impulses and wait until solid evidence is available before raising expectations.

I am starting to feel sorry for Malaysian Airlines staff.  They did the right thing by quickly arranging for relatives of the 154 missing Chinese passengers to stay at the Lido Hotel near Beijing International Airport. A few days later some of the relatives took up the offer to fly to Kuala Lumpur to be closer to the search & rescue headquarters.  But no one expected this drama to drag on so long -  the interminable waiting is taking its toll - turning into a nightmare for everyone concerned.

What did you think of the spokesman for the Thai military who said that their radar had tracked the plane as it changed course and flew back across the Peninsular and into the Straits of Melaka?  When asked why it took them 12 days to provide that information, he said "We were not asked."  Unbelievable.

Puzzle: with so many satellites up in space, don't you think it strange that none of them 'saw' where that plane flew and what happened to it?

Another question: why do we still rely on the 'black box'?  Surely in this day and age they could design a system whereby a plane's details are relayed to the company's computers continuously, in real time.

Girl power

It took a special event to knock MH370 off the front page.

China's First Lady, Peng Li Yuan hosted a 7 day visit to China by US First Lady Michelle Obama accompanied by her two daughters Malia and Sasha and her mother Marian Robinson.  They will spend time in Beijing, Xian and Chengdu.

The media has called it "First Lady Diplomacy".  Last year the two Presidents spent quality time getting to know each other and now it's the wives' turn.  I think it is terrific that the families are getting to know each other - can only enhance understanding.

The Obama girls arriving in Beijing, 20 March 2014

Meeting with President Xi Jin Ping and his wife Peng Li Yuan

Calligraphy lesson followed by ....

.... a table tennis lesson.

Since becoming China's First Lady a year ago, Peng Li Yuan has impressed with her poise and charm

...

Our wonderful grandkids

Eddie one week old, already looking very much at home. Like father like son.

21 March Eddie's cousins Kurt, Nate and Sid off to first rugby training.  They play for GPS Ashgrove.  

Now four family members with birthdays in March: Eddie (14th), Nate (16th), Vera (21st), Caroline (25th).

...

Most expensive cities

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) rated 131 cities around the world based on the cost of a basket of 160 items (New York City was taken as the 'base' against which the other cities were rated).

According to this report the 10 most expensive cities in the world are:

1. Singapore
2. Paris
3. Oslo
4. Zurich
5. Sydney
6. Caracas
7. Geneva
8. Melbourne
9. Tokyo
10. Copenhagen

New York City was ranked No. 22.

Two Australian cities, Sydney and Melbourne, are in the top ten - a dubious honour.  Twenty years ago Australia had a relatively reasonable cost of living, but that has changed dramatically.   Many costs, such as housing, transport, power and food, have gone through the roof.  Why?  Some commentators say "privatisation" has back-fired, but can that be the whole story?

It seems crazy that Sydney and Melbourne are so much more expensive than a big international metropolis like New York.  What's the answer?

World's largest economies

For my Western Culture class last week I researched the world's largest economies.  See table below.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 2013 estimates

Top 10 economies, by GDP/PPP, US $ trillions

Country	GDP/PPP (US$ trillion)	GDP/OER (US$ trillion)
1. USA	16.72	16.72
2. China	13.37	8.94
3. India	4.96	1.76
4. Japan	4.73	5.01
5. Germany	3.23	3.59
6. Russia	2.55	2.11
7. Brazil	2.42	2.19
8. United Kingdom	2.38	2.49
9. France	2.27	2.74
10. Mexico	1.85	1.33
18. Australia	1.0	1.49

Source:  CIA Wrold Factbook www.cia.gov accessed 22 March 2014.

Notes:

GDP = Gross Domestic Product.  This is a way to measure the size of a country’s economy, by adding together all the products and services produced in a country.

PPP = Purchasing Power Parity.  The World Bank calculates GDP/PPP by allowing for different cost of living in countries.  It tries to calculate what a US dollar will purchase in each country.  This is now accepted as the best measure by which to compare the real size of economies.

OER = Official Exchange Rate.  Each country calculates its GDP and then converts to US$ using the country's official exchange rate.  Different domestic cost structures are not taken into account and exchange rates can skew the final result - that's why people prefer using the GDP/PPP measure these days.

Note the big gap between the first two economies and the rest of the world.  The US and China are in a class or their own, and I can't see any other countries catching them, can you?

On GDP/PPP basis China's economy is now 80% of USA's.  If China keeps growing as it has been, it could overtake the USA by 2020 and become the world's #1 economy.  America's GDP grew by about 2% in 2013, while China's grew 7.6%.  China's target for 2014 is 7.5%.

Doctor - patient stress in China

Following a number of physical assaults by dissatisfied patients and families against doctors and nurses, many hospitals in China now employ security guards.

Traditionally doctors were greatly admired and regarded as "Angels in white" (because of their white coats). So why have doctor - patient relationships deteriorated to the extent that many doctors and nurses now fear for their safety and hospitals have to employ security personnel?

A recent survey found that 70% of patients distrusted doctors. Patients are unhappy with the brief consultations, and the subsequent prescription of expensive tests and medicines.  On the other hand, 71% of doctors said that they regretted choosing this career as it was a stressful and low-paying job.

Cartoon of an unhappy patient assaulting his doctor

Graphic showing doctors salaries and satisfaction - both low

I made this topic the theme of my Oral English classes this week.  I introduced the subject and then asked each student for their comments.  Some students spoke for 2 or 3 minutes, while others spoke longer.  Health issues are of universal interest.  They all had an opinion and seemed to enjoy the opportunity to express their views on what they see as an important social issue.

There were many interesting comments.  Here are three.

One of the girls tried to put the issue into a historical perspective.  100 years ago, even 50 years ago, about 85% of Chinese were farmers living in the countryside.  If they got sick they tried traditional remedies, which may or may not have worked.  In any case, they had no one to blame if their health didn't improve.  Life expectancy was only about 35 years, and dying early was not exceptional.  But now medical services are available to most of the population - expectations are much higher - and they have someone (the doctor) to blame if their ailments don't improve.

Another girl described her experience last year.  She became ill and went to a private clinic near her home.  The doctor said she had a serious problem and recommended immediate (and expensive) surgery.  Luckily she sought a second opinion at a large public hospital, and there she was diagnosed with a relatively minor complaint which was easily fixed.

A third girl spoke about her parents, who are both doctors back in her home town.  They work very hard and come home exhausted every night.  They did not want her to do medicine (she is doing computer science).  In a recent survey 77% of doctors said they would not recommend medicine as a career to their son or daughter.

It's a complex issue.  Several students said that it is an "open secret" that pharmaceutical companies pay kick-backs to hospitals; and there is a general perception that patients are expected to give doctors a "red envelope" (tip) to ensure their full attention.  Many people are now suspicious of doctors' motives.  On the other hand, doctors complain of long hours and aggressive patients.

There seems to be a growing dis-connect between the expectations of both sides.

I suspect that medical services have not kept pace with the tremendous development which has taken place in China in the last 30 years, and that has created stresses: growing demand, not enough supply.  According to the CIA website, in 2011 China allocated 5.2% of its budget to 'health expenditures', while the figure for the UK was 9.3%, Australia 9% , Germany 11.1%.

Incidentally, China's life expectancy is now 75 years.  A remarkable change in just 50 years.  So while there are obviously problems at the micro level, on a macro level there has been much progress in health care.

It was a good, high-energy discussion and I learnt a lot too.

Crisis in the Ukraine

Events moved very quickly this week.  When I wrote my post last Sunday, the citizens of Crimea were voting in a referendum.  The vote was overwhelmingly (97%) in favour of joining Russia.  Ukraine and 'the West' (USA and EU) rejected the result, but President Putin quickly welcomed Crimea as new member of the Russian Federation.  The West imposed sanctions and Russia reciprocated.

The incorporation of Crimea by Russia seems a 'fait accompli'.

There are strong feelings on both sides.  Some commentators think it might be the start of another "Cold War".  I hope not, but I suspect there will be a lot of huffing and puffing to go, before things settle down.

China found itself in a difficult position.  It has always been a strong advocate of "non-interference" and supported the Russian stance on Syria. In the Security Council debate last week China obviously couldn't support Russia (which was 'interfering'), but didn't want to openly criticise its new buddy.  So it called for negotiations to settle the dispute, and abstained in the final vote.

Could this be the start of Spring?

The weather this week has suddenly warmed up: daily maximums around 14 to 17 C; nights are still cold, with minimums around 0 to 5 C.  But the days have been nice and I've started cycling.  We are so lucky to be across the road from a nice bay which is a good place to bike.  The magnolia trees are blossoming and others can't be too far behind.

The university turned off the central heating in the residential buildings on Friday night, so I guess they think the warmer weather is here to stay.  Let's hope so.

Well, folks, that's it for another week. Keep well, and keep smiling.

Alex & Vera Olah (in Qingdao, China)
Sunday 22 March 2014.