Post #228 9 July 2020

Gentlefolk,

I have been doing a summary of issues relating to Covid-19 (CV19) every 10 days.  This is the tenth post in the sequence and covers the period 29 June to 8 July 2020. Breaking it down into 10 day segments helps me make sense of this medical & economic tsunami which has hit the world.

I'm thinking that one more such post will do - that will complete the second 100 days since the CV19 pandemic started (I'm taking 1 January 2020 as the start date although I know that China claims the first cases were detected in mid-December; there were 27 known cases on 31 December 2019 when China officially notified the WHO of this mysterious new virus).

Timeline #1: first 100 days, 1 January – 9 April 2020 (Post #219).

Timeline #2: ten days, 10 – 19 April 2020 (Post #220).

Timeline #3: ten days 20 – 29 April 2020 (Post #221).
Timeline #4: ten days 30 April to 9 May 2020 (Post #222).
Timeline #5: ten days 10 - 19 May 2020 (post #223).
Timeline #6: ten days 20 - 29 May 2020 (post #224).
Timeline #7: ten days 30 May - 8 June 2020 (post #225).
Timeline #8: ten days 9 - 18 June 2020 (post #226).
Timeline #9: ten days 19 - 28 June 2020 (post #227).
Timeline #10: ten days 29 June - 8 July 2020 (post #228 - this one).

First (1) statistics, then (2) a summary of recent events.

(1) First, let's have a look at what the statistics show over  the 97 day period 3 April - 8 July 2020 (using a start date of 3 April when I began keeping track of cumulative statistics).

These figures show cumulative cases and deaths at the beginning and end of the 97 day period 3 April to 8 July. They give us a sense of the magnitude of this pandemic.  I have included the figures for 21 May, which is the half-way point in this period, to show how the numbers moved during this 97 day period.

Top 10 countries by cumulative CV19 cases as at 8 July 2020: USA 2.97M; Brazil 1.6M; India 720K; Russia 693K; Peru 306K; Chile 301K; UK 288K; Mexico 262K; Spain 252K; Iran 246K.  The USA and Latin America each represents close to 25% of total global cumulative cases.

Date 2020	Global		Australia
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	1,002.159	51,485	5,116	24
21 May	4,932,861	325,636	7,072	100
8 July	11,666,210	539,772	8,755	106

Date	USA		Italy		Spain
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	236,339	5,648	115,242	13,915	110,238	10,096
21 May	1,547,352	93,119	227,364	32,330	232,555	27,888
8 July	2,966,409	131,238	241,956	34,899	252,130	28,392

Date	Iran		India		Indonesia
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	50,468	3,160	2,356	72	1,790	170
21 May	126,949	7,183	106,475	3,302	19,189	1,242
8 July	245,688	11,931	719,664	20,159	66,226	3,309

Date	Brazil		Russia		Nigeria
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	7,910	299	3,548	30
21 May	271,628	17,971	308,705	2,972	6,401	192
8 July	1,623,284	65,487	693,215	10,478	29,286	654

To get a feel for what is actually happening TODAY it is better to look at "Active Cases" and especially "Serious/Critical Cases" (which have the biggest impact on a country's medical services). The following table shows Selected Countries ranked by the number of Serious/Critical Cases.

Covid-19 Selected countries by ‘Active Cases’ and ‘Serious/Critical Cases’ on 19 May and 8 July 2020 (period of fifty days) (ranked by the number of Serious/Critical cases on 8 July 2020).

(I started noting these figures on 19 May 2020)

Country	Active Cases		Serious/critical cases
	On 19 May	On 8 July	On 19 May	On 8 July
Global	2,662,707	4,552,355	44,752	58,075
USA	1,102,647	1,609,668	16,852	15,286
India	57,951	265,783	n/a	8,944
Brazil	136,969	535,558	8,318	n/a
Iran	19,774	26,757	2,294	3,270
Russia	217,747	219,856	2,300	n/a
Spain	53,521	n/a	1,152	617
France	89,960	61,222	1,998	538
Germany	14,566	6,552	1,133	298
UK	n/a	n/a	1,559	209
Italy	66,553	14,242	749	70
Indonesia	12,495	32,132	n/a	n/a
Australia	569	1,194	12	10
Nigeria	4,183	17,012	7	7
China	82	403	8	6

Source: worldometers.info/coronavirus/   accessed 8 July 2020.  n/a = not available

(2) So, what's been happening around the world in the last 10 days?  

Events and Announcements which caught my eye during the 10 day period 19 - 28 June 2020 (with a focus on the USA, which attracts most media coverage).

(Compiled by Alex Olah from various media sources, including The New York Times, CNN, BBC, SCMP, Australian Broadcasting Corporation ABC, The New Daily)

 (Note: $ = US dollars unless otherwise stated)

Day	Date	Event / Announcement
181	29 June  2020	Global: Milestone: 10M cases (189K yesterday, Brazil 47K, USA 44K, India 20K) and 500K deaths. USA and Latin America are both about 25% of total cases, Asia 11% and Middle East 9%. Virtual concert organised by Global Citizen and hosted by Dwayne Johnson raised $7B. USA: Director of CDC said actual cases may be ten times more than detected. VP Mike Pence urged wearing masks; Governor Cuomo asked President Trump to issue an Executive Order mandating the wearing of masks. New York State only had 5 deaths yesterday. China: 49M tourist trips undertaken during the Dragon Boat long weekend, down 50% from last year. 400K people locked down in Beijing and nearby Hebei; 300K tests per day.
182	30 June	WHO: Will send team to China to investigate how CV19 started. USA: House of Representatives will continue to use remote voting until 18 August. Broadway shows will not return this year. City of Houston positivity (infectious) rate up to 13% (it was 3% a month ago). China: The PLA Army will test a new vaccine. UK: The City of Leicester was locked down because of a spike in cases. Australia: Since 13 March 348K citizens and Permanent Residents (and special exemptions) have entered Australia.
183	1 July	USA: 47.3M have filed for unemployment since March. Q1 GDP fell by 4.8%. USA now 2.6M cases; it is 4% of the world’s population, but 25% of CV19 cases; average daily increase of over 1,000 (900 a month ago). 507K deaths is more than WW1 (117K) and more than 4 recent wars (VN 58K, Korea 37K, Iraq 4.4K, Afghanistan 2.5K). 80% f deaths are people over 65; 42% of deaths occurred in Nursing Homes; African Americans are 12% of population but 25% of deaths. Australia: 75 and 64 cases in Melbourne last 2 days. 36 suburbs in Melbourne have been locked-down. Queensland will open its borders on 10 July, but not to Victorians.
184	2 July
185	3 July	EU: Issued list of 15 countries whose citizens can visit the EU; excludes USA and Brazil. USA: President Trump said wearing a mask wasn’t too bad and that he “looked like the Lone Ranger”; but he still refused to wear a mask in public. But VP Pence now advocating the wearing of masks. As States opened up an estimated 4.8 Jobs were created during June, reducing the unemployment rate from 13.3% to 11.1%. The USA had 55,274 new cases yesterday – a new daily record; 37 States reported rising case numbers; several States are pausing reopening plans. UK: All schools will reopen in September, after summer break. Australia: Averaged 67 new daily cases over the last 7 days, mainly in Victoria.
186	4 July	USA: Some experts worry of a spike in CV19 cases following the Independence Day long weekend. President Trump said he might wear a mask “I look like the Lone Ranger”; VP Pence and Congressional Leaders and Governors are now recommending people wear masks outside.
188	6 July	Global: 239 Scientists signed a letter to the WHO urging more acknowledgment of the airborne threat of CV19.  Business: Air France will let 6,500 staff go, Lufthansa 22,000, and British Air 12,000. USA: President Trump said that “99% of CV19 cases are harmless”. Remdesivir (which can help with severe cases) is being distributed to USA hotspots. Florida reported 11,458 new cases yesterday, higher than the highest daily tally when New York State was the epicentre. Spain: Signs of new outbreaks in NW and NE of Spain. Australia: 127 new cases in Victoria; the border with NSW will be closed tomorrow.
190	8 July	USA: President Trump sent formal letter of exit to WHO (process will take a year). Dr Fauci said the USA is still in the 1st Wave – the recent jumps are not a 2nd Wave yet. Overseas students who only take online courses may be told to return to their home countries. 24 States have paused or rolled-back their reopening plans. Brazil: President Jair Bolsonaro has tested positive for CV19.

...

CV19 has hit international trade hard. This dramatic slump occured in April and I expect this downward trend continued in May and June.

Few European companies are planning to move from China, despite all the talk about vulnerable supply lines and increasingly negative views of China (often Trump-promoted).

...

I read a couple of interesting autobiographies by ex-politicians, Kevin Rudd who was prime Minister from 2007 - 2010 and Craig Emerson who was a Minister in the Rudd Government and also in the subsequent Gillard Government.

I was curious how Rudd's reaction to the Global Financial Crisis in 2008-09 compared with Morrison's approach to the CV19 pandemic now. It is difficult to get a macro handle on this but my impression is that Rudd spent about A$70B in economic stimulus to counter the GFC (included several infrastructure projects), while Morrison is spending about A$240B (so far, mainly direct wages/income assistance).

This time Australian States seem much more directly involved, with each State pursuing its own stimulus package.

Following the GFC it took 10 years to bring the Federal Budget back to surplus - wonder how long it will take to recover from the CV19 stimulus packages???

Rudd's autobiographical book, published in 2018, covers the period 2007 - 2013. As leader of the Australian Labor Party he became Prime Minister when the ALP won the Nov 2007 election.  In June 2010 Rudd's deputy PM, Julia Gillard, replaced him as leader and consequently as PM (Rudd became Foreign Minister). Three years later, in June 2013 the ALP reinstated Rudd as Leader and PM. Labor lost the next election, in September 2013, and Rudd resigned from Parliament in November that year.
This 600-page book is a scholarly work - contains 1,356 footnotes and references. Rudd comes across as a workaholic, totally obsessed with making Australia a better place. He was so engrossed in various policy initiatives that he didn't see the gathering storm, the coup which toppled him as leader of the Parliamentary Labor Party and PM.

Comments on Kevin Rudd by former US President Barack Obama. Rudd was very comfortable in international settings and became friendly with many country leaders, especially Asians.

For a boy who grew up in a dysfunctional family in remote little Baradine, Craig admits that he had a surprisingly successful career: PhD in economics; Adviser in Prime Minister’s Office; Director General of Environment for the Qld Govt; MP for Rankin and Minister in the Rudd and Gillard Governments. 

It is a far less serious book than Rudd's (not one footnote!), but nevertheless had interesting insights into Australian politics during that tumultuous era.

...

Herewith photos of some of the things we did during the last 10 days:

We took a drive to Burra, not far from Queanbeyan. There are many small 'hobby farms' in this area; people who enjoy country living have 2 to 10 hectares but are still only 30 minutes from urban centers.  This sign is promoting a new sub-division.

The Burra Road changed from bitumen to dirt. After about 20km we came to the village of Michalego and stopped for a coffee. Then back to Canberra via the Monaro Highway. It was a nice way to spend a winter's Sunday afternoon.

I had a colonoscopy at this private clinic.

Patients were prepared in alcoves behind the curtains and then wheeled into the operating theatre for the actual procedure.  I arrived at 8am and left at 11am; the colonoscopy itself took less than 30 minutes. This time the surgeon didn't find any polyps or other problems - gave me the 'all-clear' - he recommended I have another examination in 5 years. Good result. 

Dinner with friends, from left: Vera, Jill, Karin, Rae, Alex, Steve, Laurie, and me. We are starting to socialise again, now that restaurants are allowed to have more customers.

The big new AXIOS development, at the corner of Eyre & Jardine Streets, Kingston (5 minutes walk from our apartment) is taking shape. The Ground Floor will contain a large supermarket and a number of speciality shops, with apartments on higher floors. The exterior is almost completed, and the internal fit-out is taking place; might be operational by the end of this year.

Visit to Canberra by old friend Geoff Gray and his partner Albert. Geoff was a fellow-Trade Commissioner.  Excellent managerial skills coupled with strategic thinking meant Geoff had a stellar career. Definitely one of the Good Guys!!!

"Wide Brown Land" a sculpture featuring poet Dorothea Mackellar's hand-writing.

We took Geoff and Albert up to the National Arboretum - wonderful views. It was a cold, crisp winter's day (real temperature was about 7C), beautiful clear blue sky but not much warmth from the sun.

Sculpture of an Australian Wedge-tail eagle at the Arboretum.

Last Sunday we did a trip to Goulburn, about 100 km from Canberra, with friends Sue and Frank Tavares. Goulburn features the "Big Merino" as this area produces some of Australia's finest merino wool.

Inside the Big Merino is a small exhibition related to the wool industry. 

The exhibition included a wool press from 1888.

After lunch we visited the Rocky Hill War Memorial and Museum, which is located on a nearby hill overlooking Goulburn and the surrounding valley.

 In 1920 the citizens of Goulburn decided to build a Memorial to commemorate those who had died during World War 1; the land (hill) was donated by Mr W J Bartlett; a local architect designed the 20 metre-high tower which was officially opened in 1925 by the Governor of NSW.
The site also includes a good new Museum featuring WW1 memorabilia.

Vear and me in front of the Memorial Tower. It was a sunny day, but a cold wind was blowing.

A German 150mm howitzer captured in October 1918. It was 'spiked' by the retreating army so that it could not be used against them.

The Museum contained a number of interesting displays, including this photo of German soldiers wearing gas masks - and the horses were also fitted with gas masks!!! A couple of examples of horse gas-masks were on display.
It was a very good little Museum, well worth a visit.

A photo of wounded soldiers. It was a brutal war!

Surrendering German soldiers exiting a building.

Ever wonder where the expression "The Walking Wounded" came from?

We had dinner with good friends Donna Ledlie and John Bakker in our favorite restaurant Sammy's Chinese Kitchen (signature dish Shantung Chicken). John and I go to the same barber.

Papa Andy (my brother) with grandkids Etu and Hinamoana. They live in paradise (aka Rarotonga, the Cook Islands); shorts and T-shirts all year round!

...

The Australian Conference of Super Rugby started up last weekend, comprising 5 teams: The Canberra Brumbies, the NSW Waratahs, the Queensland Reds, the Melbourne Rebels, and the Western Force. The competition will last 10 weeks, followed by two weeks of finals (semis and then the grand final).

Last weekend the Reds beat the Waratahs, and the Brumbies beat the Rebels (the Force had a bye).

In view of CV19 restrictions only 1,500 spectators were permitted at the Brumbies - Rebels game at Canberra Stadium. But the ACT Govt has indicated that increased numbers will be permitted soon.

Go the Brumbies!!!
...

That's it for this post.

As mentioned, I intend to do one more post (in 10 days time, on 18 July 2020) with a focus on CV19. Life, at least in this region, is getting back to normal, so my blog posts will focus on our own activities again.

Best wishes, stay healthy and keep smiling.

Vera & Alex Olah
Canberra, Australia
Thursday 9 July 2020.