Post #230 1 August 2020

Gentlefolk,

This post covers the period 19 - 31 July 2020.

I will revert to my previous format (before the 11 Posts focussed on CV19): show our photos first, then add bits and pieces on other matters.

Here are photos of some of the things we were involved with during the second half of July 2020.

John Holmes was the Senior Trade Commissioner when I worked in the Australian Embassy in Bangkok 45 years ago. Vera and I were a young married couple and John and his wife Elise kindly took us under their wings.  They were a terrific couple, and John was a marvellous boss. John is now 95 years old; he has stopped eating ("food revolts me!") and he is losing condition fast.

Ten days after the above photo was taken we again called on John Holmes at his Nursing Home. He had perked up and was more like his old self.   

We caught up with old friends Jan and Chris Creswell.

I had lunch at the Australian War Memorial with three girls from High School days (maiden names): Jenny Parris, Virginia Wheeler and Ros Bennett. Poppies Cafe at AWM is not recommended - very limited menu. Anyway, it was good to catch up with them, and reminisce about years gone by.  Afterwards I had a quick walk around the AWM.
The AWM has announced plans for a $500 million upgrade; lots of criticism and negative comment - it is already an impressive Museum (the last extension was less than 20 years ago).  Australia'a best Museum is a War Museum, not a Peace Museum???!!!

The AWM holds a "Last Post" ceremony every evening, at which a fallen soldier is remembered.  One of Virginia's relatives was being honoured that day.

Vera has decided to take Ukulele lessons, and bought a ukulele. She is enjoying learning about this new instrument.

Our good friend Ian Loiterton passed away last December. His grave is in Gungahlin Cemetery, where my mother and father are also buried.  So we 'say hello' to Ian when we visit that cemetery. Here is Vera placing some roses at his head-stone. 

A couple of weeks later we participated in a walk of the Black Mountain bushland which has been dedicated to Ian Loiterton. Ian was an active member of the Aranda Landcare Group which looks after this area.
 It was a cold and rainy day.  I wore my Canberra Raiders cap (Ian was a strong supporter).

Along the Ian Loiterton Track.

This huge gum tree - the guide said it was at least 300 years old!

Raden Dunbar's 74th birthday celebration.

On Monday 27 July we found water in a corner of our living room (an area of about 2 sq m was wet). There was a storm the previous night, and strong winds from the East.  Oh dear, this is exactly what happened 4 years ago, just before we moved into our apartment.  We quickly moved furniture away from the wet area.

NRMA Insurance sent two assessors to evaluate the situation. Unfortunately they found mold under the carpet and immediately cut the affected section 2.5m x 0.3m. We hoped it would just be a matter of drying the wet carpet, but now we will have to get it replaced - a much bigger job. They installed a big industrial-style fan and a de-humidifier which both operated for 48 hours to dry the carpet and wall.

Last week Kurt asked for some photos for a school project; I sent him the following photos:

April 1951, we had just arrived from Germany (note my 'Lederhosen'). I was then 4.5 years old, Angie was 3.5, and Andy was 2. Dad got a job in the Admin Office of Scheyville Migrant Camp and we ended up staying there 3 years before moving to Cooma.

1953, Exam result in Scheyville Primary School.

1962 I played for the school Rugby League team at Monaro High School, Cooma.

Made the School Basketball team too.

1963 School Captains, Vice-Captains and Prefects of Monaro High School, Cooma. 

1968 Graduated Bachelor of Economics, Australian National University.

1971, my first passport photo (I had hair then!)

1973 our wedding in Jakarta (the best commitment I ever made!).

With Prime Minister Gough Whitlam, Bangkok, 1974.

Organised the Australian Pavilion in a Mining Industry Trade Fair, Jakarta, 1989.

...

I read two books about the Rudd - Gillard - Rudd governments (2007 - 2013).  In November 2007 Kevin Rudd led the Labor Party to a big victory. But 3 years later, June 2010, the Deputy PM, Julia Gillard, staged a coup and replaced him. Labor lost ground in the subsequent election (August 2010) and Gillard was just able to cobble together a minority government. Gillard was not a success and in June 2013 a desperate Labor Caucus re-elected Rudd as their Leader and PM.

How did a small group of Rudd-haters manage to convince the majority of Caucus (85 in HoR + 32 in Senate = 117 Labor members of Parliament) to dump a first-term Prime Minister who still had a lot of popular support?  The Labor Party was traditionally organised around factions (based on Trade Union affiliations), but Rudd was an outsider who ignored the factions. Somehow the factional bosses convinced a big majority of Caucus that Rudd would lose the next election and the only solution was to change leaders. Gillard had her own ambitions (after the coup she was known as 'Lady Macbeth') and finally joined the plotters to ambush Rudd.

It was like a Greek tragedy: there were no winners, only losers. Two potentially outstanding leaders were ruined as the Labor Party tore itself apart. Almost all the participants in the 2010 coup admit, in the two books, that with hindsight the coup of June 2010 was a horrible mistake.

Paul Kelly is a veteran journalist - he had 45 years working for conservative News Corp (part of the Murdoch media empire). This book was published in 2014 about 9 months after Rudd lost the 2013 election to Abbott.
Kelly's book is based on interviews with the main protagonists of the 2007 - 2013 era. But it was too close to the event - emotions were still raw. Also, his bias against Labor comes through (for example, he spends many pages quoting Rudd's critics, and then half-a-page quoting his supporters). 

In 2015 the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) screened a three-part documentary series on the Rudd - Gillard - Rudd events of 2007 - 13. It was titled "The Killing Season" which refers to the last sitting week of Parliament, when sometimes leadership challenges occur (more in Opposition than Govt). This book, published in 2016, provides the background to the making of the series.
The book reveals more of the personal foibles of those involved in these events, particularly Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard. Sarah Ferguson concludes that "truth is in the eye of the beholder", as everyone had different versions of what took place. An interesting read.

...

Watched an interesting podcast of a discussion between Gareth Evans (former Foreign Minister of Australia) and Chris Paton (last British Governor of Hong Kong).

In response to a question "Who would Xi Jin Ping and Putin prefer to win the coming US election, Trump or Biden?" both Evans and Paton immediately replied "Trump"; they said that Trump's undermining of the international rules-based order, and his chaotic management style, play into the hands of opponents - they described Trump as 'the gift which keeps on giving'.

Evans expressed concern at the persistent anti-China commentary in the media (often unjustified) in the last 2 or 3 years, and worried that it will negatively impact on the large Australian-Chinese community (almost 1.5million, of a total population of 25m).

He is right to be concerned. The annual Lowy Institute Poll in late March 2020 interviewed 2,500 around Australia.  Peoples' 3 top worries were Covid-19 pandemic. economic recession, and drought. 80% of respondents said the USA was very or fairly important to Australia (33% trusted President Trump). Only 23% of respondents had a positive view of China (down sharply from 52% in 2018).

A recent Gallup Poll of 135 countries found leadership approval rates as follows: 33% for USA, 32% for China, 30% for Russia. The USA rate was down from 48% in 2016 before Trump took over.

...

On 24 July the Australian Treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, gave an economic update. The following graphics capture the essence of what he said.  It is not a pretty picture - the economy is on 'life-support' from Govt stimulus packages (both Federal and State).

The Treasurer said that Australian GDP is expected to fall by 3.75% in 2020, and another 2.5% in 2021.

To combat the CV19 economic downturn, Govt stimulus packages total A$289 Billion so far (almost 6 times what the Rudd Govt spent combating the GFC in 2008-09).

The conservative Liberal Party roundly criticised Labor's handling of the economy as shown by Govt Net Debt (the red bars in the graph), but Govt Net Debt is much worse now (blue bars).

...

I subscribe to Bloomberg's excellent daily newsletter "Supply Lines - tracking Covid-19's impact on trade".  The articles often feature very good graphics. Herewith graphs from editions in recent weeks:

This shows how important China is to the Australian economy: last year 39% of our exports went to China, and 26% of our imports come from China; China was also the biggest source of foreign students attending Australian schools and universities; and was the largest source of tourists.
I think such a degree of dependence on one country is not healthy, but how to change it???

Chinese imports from the USA have so far only realised 23% of the targets set in the Phase 1 Trade Agreement signed in January 2020.  Yesterday China announced its largest-ever purchase of American corn.

Global trade has plummeted in 2020 due to slowdowns caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.

USA's international trade (exports plus imports) crashed in Q2 2020.

This graph shows the effect of the CV19 recession on global demand for paper (printing & writing paper). Amazing, the whole world is reeling from the effects of this pandemic and the necessity to close borders and businesses. Wonder what the "new normal" will look like in a year or two??? 

...

Covid-19 pandemic.

Yesterday the world reached 17.3 million cases (cumulative) and 673,000 deaths (cumulative).

The top 10 countries yesterday by cumulative cases and deaths: USA 4.5M / 152K; Brazil 2.6M / 91K; India 1.6M / 36K; Russia 0.8M / 14K; South Africa 0.5M / 8K; Mexico 0.4M / 46K; Peru 0.4M / 19K; Chile 0.4M / 9K; UK 0.3M / 46K; Iran 0.3M / 17K.

The Australian State of Victoria in Australia has seen a "second wave" spike and Melbourne is in lock-down. As of yesterday Australia has recorded 17K cases and 196 deaths - still very low numbers, but increasing (10 days ago the numbers were 12K and 122).

The USA economy has been hit very hard by the CV19 pandemic. Q1 2020 GDP shrank by -5%, and the preliminary estimate for Q2, released a couple of days ago, was for another large fall of -9.5%. Ouch!!!

...

That's it for this post.

We are planning to drive to Brisbane to see our daughter and her family - fingers crossed it all comes about.

My next post will likely be at the end of August.

In the meantime, best wishes, stay healthy and keep smiling.

Vera & Alex Olah
Canberra, Australia
Saturday 1 August 2020