Post #233 31 October 2020

 Gentlefolk,

This post describes some of our activities during the month of October 2020.

It is a longer post than usual - a busy month so lots of photos - and I've included a section marking 300 Days of Covid-19 (the 300th day was 26 October 2020). 

Covid-19

Amazing how this little virus turned the world upside-down this year; the health and economic effects of this pandemic will be felt for years to come.

There are now 46 million cumulative cases around the world, and 1.2 million deaths. A second wave is engulfing the USA and many European countries (France had almost 50K new cases yesterday), and experts are predicting more bad news over the coming winter.

A detailed analysis of Covid-19 follows the photo section (below).

ACT Election

Elections for the ACT Legislative Assembly (Canberra's local govt) are held every 4 years. This year election day was Saturday 17 October, but the govt decided to have 3 weeks of "early voting".  Fifteen Early Voting Centres operated around Canberra and I was employed at the Dickson EVC from 28 Sept to 16 Oct.

My main motivation was to boost my Superannuation, but as it turned out that was not possible - I'll have to spend the money instead - new golf clubs??? Anyway, the experience was interesting: having a regular (if temporary) job again, and being an active participant in the democratic process.

Result: the Labor Party got 38% of the vote and 10 seats, the Liberal Party (conservative) got 34% and 9 seats, the Greens got 14% and 6 seats, and 'Others' got 14% and no seats. A Labor + Greens Coalition will govern for the next 4 years.

USA Election

All eyes are on the US Election which will be held on 3 November.  Joe Biden is ahead in the polls, but President Trump is campaigning hard. Trump pulled off a miracle in 2016 - can he do it again???

Herewith photos of some of our activities during October.

Around Canberra

Visit to Canberra by old friends Carole and Rob Hodge from Sydney.  We first met them in 1984 during our time at the Australian Embassy in Beijing. Rob was one of the first Aussie businessmen to establish a joint venture in China. 

We showed them beautiful flowers, especially tulips, at the Kingston shops.

We did a quick tour of Old Parliament House - the House of Reps Courtyard had some beautiful flowers.

Rob taking a photo of a field of yellow flowers at Weston Park, Yarralumla. They are "Cape Dandelions" (also known as 'cape weed') which are everywhere in Canberra this spring.  They are originally from around Cape Town, South Africa; Aussie troops returning from the Boer War brought them to Australia. I've never seen such a proliferation - apparently the climatic conditions this Spring are ideal for this plant.

First function of the Australia-Indonesia Families Association (AIFA) in about 6 months; a picnic lunch at NARA Park.

Exhibition on the Jennings Germans

The German Embassy was one of the sponsors of an exhibition about the "Jennings Germans".  In 1951 builder AV Jennings won a contract to build 1,850 homes in Canberra to house public servants whose Departments were transferred from Melbourne.  But Jennings had difficulty finding tradesmen, so went to Germany and recruited 150 carpenters on two year contracts. Many decided to stay in Canberra. This exhibition tells their story.

A  publicity poster from the 1950s proclaimed "Australia - land of tomorrow".

The Germans at work (above) and at play (below).

Some brought girlfriends out from Germany, others met and married local girls. Many ended up staying on in Canberra and became successful builders and contractors; later they helped establish the Harmonie German Club which has been the focal point for German culture, food and beer for more than 50 years.

ACT Election

Elections for the ACT Legislative Assembly (Canberra's local government) take place in October every 4 years; this one was held on Saturday 17 October 2020.  Because of Covid-19 the ACT Govt decided to have an "election period" (rather than just the traditional Election Day) extending over 3 weeks, from 28 Sept to 17 Oct.  They established 15 Early Voting Centres around Canberra and I got a job in the Dickson EVC.
The two main protagonists were Andrew Barr, leader of the Labor Party (and current Chief Minister), and Alistair Coe, leader of the Liberal Party. Labor won the most seats, so in coalition with the Greens, will form the new government.  

Voting is compulsory in Australia. An estimated 92% of electors voted at this election - others refuse or are unable to vote (and pay a small fine).
Canberra has 302,000 people on the Electoral Roll (Australian citizens, over 18, and resident in the ACT). About 200,000 cast 'early votes' with another 10,000 doing postal votes; about 60,000 voted on Election Day 17 October.
Electors had a choice of electronic voting or filling in a traditional paper ballot; over 80% chose to do their vote electronically.  

In my 'work gear' at Dickson EVC.

I took public transport to work: first a bus from Kingston to Civic, then the Tram from Civic to Dickson.  A one way journey door-to-door usually took about 40 minutes, quite quick and comfortable (and free - public transport is free for Over 70s).

Wedding anniversary

Celebrating 47 years of married bliss - marrying Vera was the best decision I ever made!!!

Trip to Bathurst and Windeyer (near Mudgee)

We drove from Canberra to Mudgee (about 380km) to visit friends Katie & Emil de Graaff. We stopped in Bathurst to say hello to Diane & Angus Ogilvy. The countryside is so green at the moment, following lots of rain.

Memorial to the Boer War in the centre of Bathurst. About 50 locals enlisted to fight for Britain in South Africa.

Katie and Emil live in Sydney and have a 'hobby farm' called 'Riverview' - 16 hectares near the village of Windeyer, about 35km south-west of Mudgee. This is their drive-way: it is 750 metres from the road to their accommodation/railway carriage. Their land is pretty flat, but with nice hills in the distance. Everything was green.

They live in a renovated railway carriage. Electricity from solar, and also a back-up generator; toilets (septic tank) and showers.  They added comfortable bedrooms at either end.

The 'Living Room' in the railway carriage.

Vera, Katie and Emil on their verandah (where we had our meals). We first met them Brazil in 1979, and have stayed in touch ever since.

 

There was an old homestead on the property.

The original homestead is now a wreck and uninhabitable.

A view of Meroo Creek which forms the border of their property. This time last year, during the drought, it was just a series of water-holes. We saw three large fish, probably carp, swimming on the surface.

It was fun riding Emil's postie bike which he uses to get around the farm.

Emil barbequed meat on a rotisserie - Brazilian style - delicious!!!

There was lots of grass to mow.

Mudgee is famous for its vineyards and wines.  Pieter van Gent was one of the pioneers in the 1960s. We bought a couple of bottles there.

From left: Emil, Vera, Katie, and me. These seats were made in 1888 for a Catholic chapel. Note the huge oak barrels behind, used to store/age wine.

We had lunch at the di Lusso winery. 

The di Lusso Winery had a nice garden & lake. Thanks Katie and Emil for a memorable stay with you!!!

A road-side library in the countryside, in old refrigerators. It works on an honor basis - you take a book, and donate a replacement. 

Little Hartley (near Lithgow)

From Mudgee we drove to Little Hartley (near Lithgow) to see Mary Ann and Bill Torok, and then on the Sydney.

Mary Ann, Bill, and Vera. Bill's father, Bela Torok, was a good friend of my father - the Hungarian connection. He has two brothers, Les and Andrew. I first met the family in early 1951 when we all stayed at Scheyville Migrant Camp near Sydney. After our move to  Cooma NSW we seldom saw them. I hadn't seen Bill for two decades or more - luckily his email address was still the same and we were able to arrange this catch-up.

The original owner created a large dam & lake which gives a very nice outlook from their house. Here Mary Ann and Vera are walking along the dam wall; their house is in the background.

Surry Hills, Sydney

Jay-jay having a swimming lesson at the pool in Prince Albert Park, opposite Andrew & Caroline's apartment.  Eddie would normally also have a lesson, but he has a cast on his left arm at present.

A view of Andrew's living room from the bedroom upstairs. Jay-Jay is pretending to dunk the basketball.  Note Eddie's left arm is in a cast - he broke it 2 weeks ago, fell off a swing at school.

Jay with her Ballet teacher. The class is held on Saturday mornings at Burke Street Primary School (Eddie's school).

JJ is uber-cute in her ballet outfit and her new, short, haircut.

Caz and Andrew have decided to demolish the house at Queens Park, and rebuild. It has been a huge project: selecting an architect, drawing up plans, getting Council approval. It sounds simple, but wasn't. Poor Caz, all the bureaucracy drove her nuts. Finally, demolition started last week; we had a last look at the old house before it is gone. 

The backyard is a mess. The builder has estimated a year, so with a bit of luck they will be in their new home by this time next year.

On Sunday we walked down to Chinatown for Yum Cha. It was drizzling.

Yum Cha at famous Marigold Restaurant.

David Everingham (and kids Bea and Miles) and Paul Milton joined us for lunch.

Chicken feet - my favorite - yummy!!!

Caroline (Caz) and Andrew.

Ice cream - best way to finish a meal!

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Covid-19: the first 300 days (1 January – 26 October 2020)

I thought it would be appropriate to mark 300 days of Covid-19 (on 26 October 2020) by looking back at what was happening on Day 100 (9 April 2020) and Day 200 (18 July 2020) as well as on Day 300 (26 October).

First, a review of major events on those three days, followed by a statistical overview.

 

Table 1: Events and Announcements which caught my eye on Day 100 (9 April 2020), Day 200 (18 July 2020), and Day 300 (26 October 2020).

(Note: $ = US dollars unless otherwise stated)

Day	Date	Event / Announcement
Day 100	9 April   2020	Global: A study found mortality rates of 4 Western countries (USA, UK, Spain & Italy) averaged 6.3%, and six Asian countries (China, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, HK, and Taiwan) averaged 3.7%. UK: Boris Johnson 3rd day in ICU. 932 new cases in UK. USA: USA deaths 1,858 in one day. Three tigers in Bronx Zoo tested positive (assumed transmitted by one of their handlers who tested positive to CV19). President Trump accused WHO of incompetence and “favoring China”; threatened to cut funding. China: 32 new cases and no deaths for 4 days; cumulative totals now 81,740 cases and 3,331 deaths. Wuhan lock-down ended after 76 days; yesterday more than 55,000 people exited the city in which they had been stranded. Australia: Australia introduced third stimulus package (‘Job Keeper’) A$130 billion.
Day 200	18 July   2020	Global: New milestones: 14 million cumulative cases (the latest 1 million took just 100 hours). 260,000 new cases yesterday, a new daily record (biggest increases in USA, Brazil, India and South Africa). USA now has 3.7M cumulative cases, Brazil passed 2M cases and India passed 1M cases. Global deaths rose by 7,360, highest since 10 May. USA: 77,000 new cases yesterday, a daily record. The 14 day change trend: cases up 39%, deaths up 47%. Big increases in Florida, Texas, Arizona. President Trump considering banning visits by members of the Communist Party of China (92M members, including many high-profile business executives).  USA removed Hong Kong’s preferential trade status (as punishment for new National Security Law imposed by Beijing). Debate on mandatory wearing of masks becoming politicised. President Trump has started “Tele-Rallies” (instead of in-person rallies). California announced that schools in most counties (representing 80% of State’s school population) will not re-open in September. China: China’s economy grew 3.2% in Q2 (after contracting by -6.8% in Q1). Spain: Surge in cases in Catalonia region, Barcelona locked-down. Australia: Unemployment rate in May officially 7.8%, but ‘real rate’ probably twice that number. Federal Govt announced “JobTrainer” program, $2B for 340,000 trainees and 190,000 apprentices. A spike in cases in Melbourne and Sydney.
Day 300	26 October 2020	Global: Cumulative cases pass 43M and cumulative deaths 1.2M. WHO warns of second waves, and cases will increase as the northern winter starts. USA: New daily record of 90,000 cases (this week 27 States had new daily records); total of 450,000 in the last week. Despite this President Trump said at rallies “We’re rounding the corner”. Challenger Joe Biden accused Trump of “waving the white flag” on the pandemic. Wall Street jittery, election nerves? Five members of VP Pence’s staff tested positive for CV19 (President Trump, his wife and son tested positive 3 weeks ago, have recovered). Dr Anthony Fauci said that he is hopeful a vaccine may be proven by Xmas, but doses won’t be available until several months later. He says wearing masks should be mandatory. The USA / Canada border closure to non-essential travel has been extended for another  month. China: 138 cases found in Kashgar, Xinjiang, all asymptomatic; 3 million residents were  tested in 2 days. Spain: Over 20K new cases per day, cumulative cases now over 1 million; the Govt has announced a State of Emergency with travel restrictions and a national curfew imposed from 11pm to 6am. France: Cumulative cases passed 1 million. National curfew from 9pm to 6am. Australia: No new cases in Victoria for 2 days so lock-down eased after 112 days. Federal Govt hopeful that internal borders will be open before Xmas.

 

Statistical overview:

Cases: The first Million cumulative cases were reported on 3 April 2020; passed 2M on 16 April; 4M on 11 May; 8M on 17 June; 16M on 25 July; 32M on 24 September; 40M on 20 October 2020 (six days later, on 26 October the number of cumulative cases was 43.4M, today almost 46M).

Deaths: On 11 January 2020 China announced the first death, a 61 year old man in Wuhan; 28 January deaths passed 100; 10 February deaths passed 1,000 (two outside China, one in The Philippines and one in Hong Kong); 20 March deaths passed 10,000 (including 4,000 in Italy); 9 April deaths passed 100,000; on 26 October cumulative global deaths totaled 1.16 million.

 On 26 October 2020 the top 10 countries by cumulative cases (and deaths) were (numbers rounded):

#1 USA 8.9Million cumulative cases / 231,000 cumulative deaths; #2 India 7.9M / 119K; #3 Brazil 5.4M / 157K;  #4 Russia 1.5M /  26K; #5 France 1.1M / 35K; #6 Spain 1.1M / 35K; #7 Argentina 1.1M / 29K; #8 Colombia 1.0M / 30K; #9 Mexico 0.9M / 89K; #10 Peru 0.9M / 34K.

A “second wave” is engulfing many countries; the USA has had over 80,000 new daily cases for the past week, and France and Spain have recorded over 1 million cumulative cases (with the UK not far behind).

 

 Table 2: 100 days, 200 days, and 300 days of Covid-19: Cumulative Cases and Cumulative Deaths, Global and selected countries.

Source: www.worldometers.info/coronavirus accessed 26 October 2020

	100 days to 9 April 2020 Cases / Deaths	200 days to 18 July 2020 Cases / Deaths	300 days to 26 October  Cases / Deaths
Global	1,500,425 /  87,584	14,041,992 / 596,374	43,345,956 / 1,159,093
USA	423,135 / 14,390	3,647,715 / 139,255	8,889,179 / 230,510
India	5,749 / 178	1,039,084 / 26,273	7,909,959 / 119,030
Brazil	14,347 / 719	2,046,328 / 77,851	5,394,128 / 157,163
Russia	8,672 / 63	758,001 / 12,106	1,513,877 / 26,050
Spain	146,690 / 14,673	260,255 / 28,420	1,110,372 / 34,752
Iran	67,286 / 4,003	269,440 / 13,791	568,896 / 32,616
Italy	139,422 / 17,669	243,967 / 35,028	525,782 / 37,338
Indonesia	2,956 / 240	83,130 / 3,957	389,712 / 13,299
Nigeria	254 / 6	35,454 / 772	61,992 / 1,130
Australia	6,010 / 50	11,441 / 118	27,528 / 905

What a remarkable 300 days it has been, since the beginning of 2020.

To make country statistics more comparable, let’s look at the figures for cumulative cases and cumulative deaths based on 1 Million of population. Then dividing the number of deaths by the number of cases gives us an Estimated Mortality Rate (the percentage of cases who actually die).

Three months ago several European countries (particularly The UK, Belgium, The Netherlands and Spain) had very high mortality rates of over 10%, but they have all improved significantly. In fact, the mortality rate of most developed countries has improved with better equipment, care and experience.

 

Table 3: 300 days of Covid-19 (as at 26 October 2020): Cumulative cases and cumulative deaths per 1 million of population, top 10 countries (by cumulative cases), and other selected countries.

Source: www.worldometers.info/coronavirus accessed 26 October 2020

Country	Total cumulative cases of CV19 per Million population (number)	Total cumulative deaths from CV19 per Million population (number)	Est. Mortality rate (cumulative deaths divided by cumulative cases) (%, rounded)
Global	5,561	149	2.7
USA	26,805	695	2.6
Brazil	25,320	738	2.9
India	5,714	86	1.5
Russia	10,372	178	1.7
France	17,430	532	3.1
Spain	23,746	743	3.1
Argentina	24,060	637	2.7
Colombia	19,898	591	3.0
Mexico	6,889	687	10.0
Peru	26,836	1,031	3.8
Belgium	27,661	931	3.4
Netherlands	16,986	411	2.4
Germany	5,218	121	2.3
Sweden	10,929	586	5.4
Norway	3,295	51	1.6
Denmark	6,959	121	1.7
China	60	3	5.0
Japan	764	14	1.8
South Korea	506	9	1.8
Australia	1,076	35	3.3

Mortality rate = how many of those who get infected die.

 

To get a better feel of what is happening right now, rather than cumulative figures let’s look at Active Cases and Serious/Critical Cases (eg patients on ventilators) as reported on 26 October 2020 (Day 300). For comparison, the equivalent statistics are also shown for 18 July (Day 200).

 

Table 4: Covid-19 ‘Active Cases’ and ‘Serious/Critical Cases’ on 18 July and 26 October 2020 (period of 100 days) (ranked by the number of Serious/Critical cases as at 26 October 2020); Global and selected countries.

Source: www.worldometers.info/coronavirus accessed 26 October 2020

Country	Active Cases		Serious/critical cases
	On 18 July (Day 200)	On 26 Oct (Day 300)	On 18 July (Day 200)	On 26 Oct (Day 300)
Global	5,124,881	10,281,950	59,857	77,796
USA	1,886,675	2,886,171	16,660	16,377
India	360,460	653,701	8,944	n/a
Brazil	603,990	401,050	n/a	8,318
Iran	22,776	81,226	3,509	4,969
France	65,289	993,424	477	2,500
Russia	207,707	349,305	n/a	2,300
Spain	n/a	n/a	617	2,031
Germany	5,685	110,499	249	1,296
Italy	12,456	222,241	50	1,208
UK	n/a	n/a	142	743
Indonesia	37,339	62,649	n/a	n/a
Australia	3,162	1,424	26	n/a
Nigeria	20,049	3,397	n/a	7
China	252	265	3	4

Source: worldometers.info/coronavirus/   accessed 26 October 2020.  n/a = not available

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International Trade

My 30 year career as an Australian Trade Commissioner gave me an interest in matters related to international trade.  I subscribe to Bloomberg's excellent daily newsletter "Supply Lines - tracking Covid-19's impact on trade" (former title Trade Matters).  The coronavirus pandemic has had a huge impact on international trade.  

Here are some of the more interesting graphs in that newsletter during October 2020; they are self-explanatory.

Preliminary figures for US international goods trade (ie excluding 'services') for September 2020 showed monthly Imports down 0.2% to $201 billion and Exports up 2.7% to $122 billion, giving an estimated monthly deficit in goods trade of $79 billion.

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Other notable events during October:

Melbourne-born singer Helen Reddy ("I am woman") died aged 78. 

Amy Coney Barrett made Justice of the US Supreme Court.

Lewis Hamilton won the Portuguese F1 Grand Prix - his 92nd victory (passed Michael Schumacker's record!).

LA Lakers beat Miami Heat 4 - 2 to win NBA Championship. LeBron James MVP in the final game he got a 'triple-double' 28 points, 14 rebounds, 10 assists).

French Tennis Open: Iga Swiatek beat Sofia Kenin 6-4, 6-1. Rafa Nadal beat Novak Djokovic 6-0, 6-2, 7-5. It was Nadal's 13th Paris win and his 20th Grand Slam.

In Australia. Aussie Rules (AFL): Richmond Tigers beat Geelong Cats 81- 50; Rugby League (NRL): Melbourne Storm beat Penrith Panthers 26 - 20; Rugby Union: in New Zealand the Wallabies drew with the All Blacks 16 - all, but then lost the next game 27 - 7. The third game is tonight in Sydney.

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Price of petrol and diesel at Costco in Canberra, late October.

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My sister's birthday today - HAPPY BIRTHDAY, ANGIE!

That's it for this post.

Best wishes, stay healthy and keep smiling,

Vera & Alex Olah,                                                                                            Canberra, Australia                                                                                                      Saturday, 31 October 2020