Post #235 31 December 2020

Gentlefolk 

 This post describes our activities during December 2020.

The contents are in the following sequence:

• Photos of our activities;
• Graphs related to international trade;
• Brexit;
• USA election aftermath;
• Covid-19;

Photos of some of our activities during December 2020.

Our grandson Sid Roberts receiving the Award as Best Boy Sportsman at Hilder Road Primary School graduation ceremony on 3 December 2020. He will join his brothers at Marist College Ashgrove next year.

Paul Barratt contributed an essay for new book "A Secret Australia". I attended the book launch at Paperchain, Manuka, and then drove Paul to Canberra Airport for his return to Armidale. He is an outstanding Australian!

Xmas get-together of the Australia Indonesia Families Association (AIFA) of the ACT; always lots of great food and camaraderie.

Father Xmas entertaining AIFA kids.

Xmas lunch with ex-Austraders, from left: Paul Worsley, Les Boag, Geoff McKie, Peter Kane, John Twohill, John Bush, Ian Ffrench, Jim Enright, and me.

Stephen Wise was in charge of repairing the water leak in our building.

Apparently "The Wharf Revue" has been a popular satirical performance for several years.  I went on 14 December and enjoyed the skits immensely - very clever take on current issues and politicians - presented by a small cast of just 5 talented actors. 

The Wharf Review was held in The Playhouse, adjacent to the Canberra Theatre. I hadn't been here for years - it is a good venue.

19 December New Vogue dancing Xmas Social organised by Audrey and Rob at Belconnen Seniors; a most enjoyable night.

A Covid cluster was found on Sydney's northern beaches; the NSW Govt labeled Greater Sydney (from Gosford to Wollongong) as a hot-spot. Suddenly everyone was on alert -  desperate to avoid another Victoria-type lock-down. Thousands of people got tested, with only a handful 'positive' each day - although the number of positives cases jumped to 18 yesterday! The Canberra Government decreed that anyone returning from Sydney had to self-isolate for 14 days - our planned trip to Gosford over New Year went up in smoke!!!

20 December: to get into Xmas spirit, we took Andrew & family to Christmas Carols run by the Baptist Church of Kingston. Beautiful setting under huge gum trees in Telopea Park.  Luckily they arrived in Canberra a few hours before the self-isolation requirement was introduced.

At Carols-in-the-Park.

We visited "Cockington Green" miniature village at Gold Creek, Canberra, from left: Caroline, Eddie, Andrew, & JJ.

Lovely gardens and displays at Cockington Green.

Caz and Andrew took the kids on the miniature train around Cockington Green.

On 22 December we took Eddie to a Big Bash League (BBL) cricket game at Manuka Oval; Sydney Thunder played Perth Scorchers - the Thunder chased 152 and won in the last over. In BBL each side faces 20 overs (6 balls an over), so it is quick and action-packed. This game lasted 3.5 hours.

Manuka Oval is a good venue for cricket; it is about 1km from our apartment.

Three generations enjoying BBL cricket. It was quite a cold night - hence the jackets we were wearing - Canberra often cools down at night, even in summer.

Eddie practicing soccer skills; he loves soccer and tennis - his eye-hand coordination is getting good.

Jay and I found a mob of kangaroos at Weston Park; always amazing to see wild animals in the middle of our city.

Family Xmas-Eve dinner on 24 December (German-tradition) at Southern Cross Club, Jamison. We had dinner here last year, amidst the choking smoke, and it worked well, so here we are again. Britt organised the table decorations and the Xmas tree, and Sasha arranged the food (but Sasha, Davide, Bonnie and Oscar couldn't join us because of the Covid situation in Sydney).

After a delicious dinner it was time to exchange presents. Nouvie, Eddie and Jay handed them out. From left: Tuey, Lani, Britt, Nouvie, Jay, Andrew, and Caz.

From left: Angie, Michael, Peter, Adrienne, and Aniko. It was an enjoyable night. We got home about 10pm and fell into bed. The following morning (Xmas Day) Eddie and Jay got more presents, then we had breakfast before they all left for Sydney.

Morning of Xmas Day, 25 December, we had to evacuate the building due to a fire alarm. Fortunately it was a false alarm; the kids were excited to see a real fire engine up close.

Vera & I saying goodbye to Eddie and Jay after breakfast; Andrew & family drove to Sydney to celebrate Xmas Day with Caz's parents, Niniek and Paul.

Sad news on Xmas Eve that our good friend John Holmes OAM had passed away. It was not unexpected; John was almost 96 and had not eaten solid food for several months. We visited him regularly in the Nursing Home, and watched him fade away.  We will attend the funeral on 31/12.

John was my boss when I worked in the Trade Section of the Australian Embassy, Bangkok. Here we are in February 1974 escorting Prime Minister Gough Whitlam to lunch with the Australian Business Community in Bangkok. John was a great boss, a thoroughly decent person, and we established an enduring friendship.

John Holmes leading a staff sing-a-long in Bangkok.

John and Elise Holmes hosted a welcome reception for my successor Peter Jamvold, Bangkok, June 1974.

A photo of Vera & me in Bangkok, June 1974. Happy days!!!

With John's daughter, Lucie Holmes Alexander. Lucie flew from Perth 10 days ago as John's condition weakened. This photo was taken on 19 December during our last visit with John; he was in a semi-conscious state.  

We attended John's funeral on 31 December. Other ex-Trade colleagues who were there: Brian and Geoff Hill, Gerald Lynch, John Smith, Bruce Kentwell.
John had a varied and interesting life. His passions were Family, Classical Music, International Trade, and Rugby.  On retirement he devoted much time teaching and writing about classical music, and was awarded an OAM for that contribution.
A very special person. Rest in Peace, John.

Lucie giving the eulogy at John's funeral this morning.

On 26 December I went to another BBL game at Manuka Oval. This time Sydney Thunder played Melbourne Renegades.  Thunder batted first and made a (record) 209 runs (20 year old Ollie Davies top scored with 48, which included 4 consecutive sixes).  Then they bowled the Renegades out for just 80 runs! 

At the BBL game, from left: Jeffrey Evans, David Evans, Noel Cock, and me. From not being at Manuka Oval for many years, I was there twice in less than a week....

Garbage truck drivers held a strike for more pay. Ridiculous - they are already very well paid (highest in Australia!), and it is also during an economic recession when wages are, if anything, going down.  They didn't get the 12% over 3 years they wanted, but still ended up with 10.2%. Salaries and wages in Canberra are crazy - far too high.  

Price of fuel at Costco (cheapest in Canberra) on 20 December 2020. Prices have been pretty steady this month - international crude oil prices have risen but the Aussie dollar has also appreciated (why, I don't know?).

This month I read about Australia's agricultural development. The author (Emeritus Professor Craig Pearson, worked in Australia and Canada) calls the period 1950 - 2000 the "golden age" of plant innovation.  New, adapted legumes that fixed their own nitrogen made farming more sustainable and profitable.
The academic at the forefront of these developments was Professor John Gladstones of the University of Western Australia. He bred new varieties of pasture legume, including the first narrow-leaf grain lupin, and contributed significantly to grape-growing and wine.

...

International Trade

My 30 year career as an Australian Trade Commissioner has given me an interest in matters related to international trade.  I subscribe to Bloomberg's excellent daily newsletter "Supply Lines - tracking Covid-19's impact on trade" (former title 'Trade Matters').  

The coronavirus pandemic has had a big impact on countries' economies and on international trade.  

Here are some of the more interesting graphs in the Bloomberg newsletter during December 2020; they are largely self-explanatory.

Demand has soared, leading to increases in freight charges.

Many economies are "bouncing back", which is putting pressure on container shipping.

The USA traditionally has a large deficit in merchandise (goods) trade, and a big surplus on services trade; but this year that surplus has been reduced due to falls in tourism (and likely lower numbers of international students).

Despite much talk of 'decoupling', foreign companies are investing a record amount in China.

...

Brexit

I was disappointed when, 4 years ago, the UK voted 52% - 48% to leave the European Union; after all the wars and conflict of past centuries I felt that increased unity would enhance the likelihood of peace in Europe.  

The following poll was published in The Economist on 10 December 2020. Public opinion has changed significantly since the Referendum was held in 2016 - the result would be very different now!

But it's all too late - after 47 years in the EU, the UK formally exited in January. A last-minute trade deal was finally reached last week which avoided a "hard exit" when the trade-transition period expired today.

...

USA politics

The election was held on 3 November 2020. The Democrats narrowly retained the House of Representatives; the Senate is very close again, with the two Georgia Senate seats to be determined in a run-off in early January. Despite Joe Biden (Dem) winning the Electoral College 306 - 232, President Trump alleged widespread fraud and has still not conceded (there is no evidence of widespread electoral fraud, even the Department of Homeland Security said it was "the most secure election in American history").

It is so sad to see America being subjected to this torture, because of one man's vanity.  At the end of the day, Biden will be inaugurated as the next President of the USA on 20 January 2021, but in the meantime the mess continues - so unnecessary and undignified.

Goodbye, President Trump.

Please stop whining and please don't give Joe Biden a hard time.  

The Washington Post tracker has identified over 26,000 false or misleading statements made by President Trump during the past 4 years.

The USA has a new economic stimulus package worth US$900 billion (the EU has a new package worth 750 billion euros).

Biden nominated Katherine Tai, 46, as his new US Trade Representative.

...

Covid-19

Covid-19: Global and top ten countries as at 30 December 2020 by Cumulative Cases and Cumulative Deaths; 91 days from 30 September to 30 December 2020.

M = million, K = thousands. Figures have been rounded. NA = not immediately available (ie I don't have those figures to hand).

	30 Sept 2020	26 Oct 2020	31 Nov 2020	30 Dec 2020
Global	33M / 1M	43.4M / 1.2M	63M / 1.5M	82.3M / 1.8M
1. USA	7.2M / 205K	8.9M / 231K	13.6M / 273K	20M / 347K
2. India	6M / 96K	7.9M / 119K	9.4M / 137K	10.3M / 148K
3. Brazil	4.8M / 142K	5.4M / 157K	6.3M / 173K	7.6M / 193K
4. Russia	1.1M / 20K	1.5M / 1.1K	2.3M / 40K	3.1M / 56K
5. France	NA	1.1M / 35K	2.2M / 52K	2.6M / 64K
6. UK	NA	NA	1.6M / 58K	2.4M / 72K
7. Turkey	NA	NA	NA	2.2M / 20K
8. Italy	NA	526K / 37K	1.6M / 55K	2.1M / 73K
9. Spain	716K / 31K	1.1M / 35K	1.7M / 45K	1.9M / 50K
10. Germany	NA	NA	1.1M / 17K	1.7M / 32K

Source: www.worldometer.info/coronavirus accessed 30 December 2020.

In 91 days the number of global cumulative cases has gone from 33 million to more than 82 million. A new, more infectious, strain has been found in the UK, and is spreading globally. 

The USA and many European countries are experiencing "second waves" - yesterday there were over 50,000 new cases of Covid in the UK, and the Government has responded with more lock-down measures.

Anti-Covid vaccines made by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna are being produced and distributed as quickly as possible; the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is close to being approved, and the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is close too.

In Australia the number of cases is still small, but the Federal and State governments are vigilant because numbers can increase so quickly.  Today there were 10 new cases reported in NSW and 3 new cases in Victoria (the first in Victoria for 2 months!).

...

John le Carre, master spy-novelist, died on 12 December 2020 aged 89.

...

That's it for this post, and for this year.

Wouldn't that be nice!

Our very best wishes for 2021, stay healthy and keep smiling.

Vera & Alex Olah

Canberra, Australia

Thursday 31 December 2020.