Gentlefolk,
This post describes some of the things we were involved in during April 2021.
The contents of this post are in the following sequence:
Photos of our activities during April 2021 (including Movies and Books).
Some noteworthy events in April 2021.
International trade.
Covid-19.
Property prices.
Let's start with photos of some of our activities in April 2021.
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| Old friends (lao pengyou) Carole and Rob Hodge visited from Sydney. We met them in Beijing in 1984 - Rob was a one of the first Australian businessmen to appreciate China's potential - he established a joint venture in Fujian Province making woolen products. Their son Alex Hodge is making a name for himself in Hollywood. |
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| Smith's Alternative Cafe hosted the Anti-Folk Festival over Easter and we spent an enjoyable afternoon and evening there. |
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| Some other performers at the Anti-Folk Festival. Unusual combination of instruments. The guitarist / vocalist was of Chinese descent. They played a number of Brazilian samba tunes to which we could relate. |
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| Another interesting group, two guitars and a vocalist. We were at Smith's from 2 - 7pm, then dinner at the Red Chilli Sichuan Restaurant (excellent!), before returning for a final act. |
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| On Easter Sunday we joined the extended family for a picnic lunch at Yerrabi Park. From left: Tuey (Britt's son), Vera, Davide (Sasha's husband), Michael (Adrienne's boyfriend), and Peter Carey. It was a perfect autumn day. |
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| The park had a 'flying fox'; from left: Angie, Bonnie and Nouvie, and Sasha (about to take off). |
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| From left: Sasha, Adrienne, and Aniko. |
| On 6 April Vera & I left Canberra for Brisbane, returning 20 April. In the two weeks we drove a total of 2,800 km, and used 170 liters of diesel at a cost of A$230. |
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| We stayed with Siri and Bob Morrison in Nambucca Heads for two nights. |
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| A view of one of the nice beaches in Nambucca. |
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| In Tweed Heads we called in to see Irene and Dennis Smith; they moved here from Canberra about 10 years ago. Dennis was manager of M C Computing and he employed Vera as a receptionist when we came to Canberra in 1996. She really enjoyed working there. |
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| We had 4 nights in Brisbane, house-sitting at The Gap while Jen, Tom & boys were at Lord Howe Island. We visited South Bank, one of our favourite places in Brisbane - lovely public swimming pools and gardens. |
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| I had a look at the Maritime Museum at the southern end of South Bank. |
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| Interesting map showing the many shipwrecks along the Queensland coast. |
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| The Museum had a number of 'retired' ships, including this frigate. |
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| We caught up with Michael Tjoeng; we were colleagues in the Trade office of the Australian Embassy in Beijing in 1986. |
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| Michael took us to Ginga in Fortitude Valley, his favourite Japanese restaurant. Beautifully presented sushi. Thanks, Michael, wonderful food! |
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| We joined Andrew, Caz & Eddie and Jay at the Currumbin Sands Resort for 3 nights. It was located at the end of Palm Beach, about 100m to the beach and 50m to the park alongside Currumbin Creek. |
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| The beach nearest our holiday apartment. |
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We were blessed with great weather. Sea temperature was 24C, quite comfortable once in.
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| We had dinner one night at Burleigh Heads (just north of Palm Beach) - this was the view at dusk looking up the coast towards Surfers Paradise. |
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| Caroline and Andrew. |
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| Jen and the boys came down from Brisbane - after surfing we all had lunch at the Currumbin Surf Life Saving Club which overlooks Currumbin Beach (see map above). After lunch we all drove back to Brisbane and stayed at The Gap with the Roberts family for 3 nights. |
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| Preparing for dinner at the Roberts home, from left: Andrew, Caz, Vera, and Tom. |
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| Dinner at The Gap. From left: Sid, Jay, Kurt, Nate. |
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| Jen made a cake for Sid's 12th birthday; Jay was fascinated. |
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| Jen passing a knife to Sid so that he can cut his birthday cake. |
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| Sid unwrapping birthday presents, watched closely by Eddie and Jay (and Vera behind). |
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| Watching rugby in the TV room, from left: Nate, Andrew, Eddie, and Tom. |
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| The view from their balcony. Great location - the house is next to a small public park, so they only have neighbors on one side. On Sunday 18 April Andrew & Caz & kids flew back to Sydney and Vera & I started our drive back to Canberra. |
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| We stopped at Gaven (near Helensvale) to see old friend Hugo Hofgartner. |
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| Then lunch with Shana and Greg Mills at Ocean Shores, before driving on the Nambucca Heads. We had two nights with Siri and Bob and then the long drive back to Canberra. |
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| Friday 23 April I went to my first game of Aussie Rules with Paul Milton and Heath McMichael. A big crowd watched Greater Western Sydney (GWS) play Western Bulldogs at Manuka Oval. It was a cold (5C, but 'real feel' was just 2C), clear night, luckily no wind. It was a close contest for 3 quarters but then the Bulldogs ran away with it in the 4th quarter. After 6 weeks, the Bulldogs and Demons are both 6 - 0 and on top of the AFL ladder. |
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| Part of the big crowd at Manuka Oval. |
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| We visited the National Portrait Gallery; from left Vera, Paul, and Niniek. The following are three portraits which caught my eye. |
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| Dinner at home; from left, Reno and Health McMichael, Vera, Niniek and Paul Milton. |
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| 25 April is ANZAC Day (our Memorial Day) when we honour people who have served in the Armed Forces. It commemorates the Gallipoli Campaign in WW1 when troops from Australia and New Zealand were part of an ill-fated attack on Turkey. |
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| A tradition on ANZAC Day is to play "two-up" which is a gambling game, which was apparently popular with soldiers. A 'spinner' throws up 3 coins and people bet that there will be two heads or two tails. I watched it for a while at a local pub, the Walter & Burley at Kingston Foreshore. In this photo the crowd is looking up at the coins which are spinning in the air. |
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| Lunch with Kay & Bob Stoddard and Nee & Eugen Braun, friends from the Canberra Old Time Dance Club. |
Movie
We saw one movie in April, recently-released The Courier.
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| The film stars Benedict Cumberbatch as Greville Wynne, a British businessman recruited by MI6 / CIA to liaise with dissident Oleg Penkovsky who provided information on the USSR's buildup of missiles on Cuba. Both were arrested by Soviet Intelligence: Penkovsky was executed and Wynne was jailed all the while protesting "I was just a courier". He was later exchanged for a Soviet spy and returned home to England. A good (but not great) film, I would give it 3.5 out of 5. Vera and Sue slept through most of it, but Frank and I enjoyed it. |
Books
I read two books in April: Tai-Pan by James Clavell and Agent Sonya by Ben Macintyre. Both are very well written and highly recommended.
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| I re-read this marvellous historical novel during April. James Clavell is a wonderful story-teller. This book describes the founding of British Hong Kong in 1841. The hero is Dirk Struan, a Scottish China-trader and founder/Tai-Pan of The Noble House (loosely based on Jardine Matheson & Co). Other characters are Dirk's sworn enemy Tyler Brock and his son Gorth; Dirk's son (and heir) Culum; and my favorite Dirk's mistress May-May. It all made for a romantic story, but the underlying reality was far more grim: greedy British Govt and Traders forced opium onto China (it was a banned narcotic in Britain!) and when the Chinese Qing Emperor resisted, they defeated China in two so-called Opium Wars between 1839 and 1860 (muskets against spears!). |
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| Charles (James) Clavell, born Sydney 1921, died Switzerland 1994, aged 72. He was a best-selling author, screen-writer, film director, and a soldier/prisoner of war during WW2. Spent most of his life in the USA (he became an American citizen in 1963). He was married and had three children. Clavell wrote 6 historical novels about Europeans in Asia which were collectively known as "The Asian Saga": King Rat (1962, set in Singapore in 1945); Tai Pan (1966, set in Hong Kong in 1841); Shogun (1975, set in Japan in 1600); Noble House (1981, set in Hong Kong in 1963); Whirlwind (1986, set in Iran in 1979); Gai-Jin (1993, set in Japan in 1862) |
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This is the remarkable story of German-born Ursula Kuczynski (1907 – 2000). As a teenager Ursula joined the Young Communists and was a believer all her life. She was recruited as a Soviet spy code-named Sonya and eventually attained the rank of Colonel in the Red Army. Her spying career included stints in: Shanghai, Mukden, Poland, Switzerland, and finally England (her third husband was English). Her biggest coup was as handler of physicist Klaus Fuchs who revealed details of the Atomic Bomb project, which enabled the Soviet Union to develop its own Bomb in 1949. When Fuchs was arrested by British
Intelligence in 1950, Ursula (with children and husband) fled to Communist East Germany where she lived
until her death. |
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| Author Ben Macintyre (born England 1963) is a marvellous story-teller. He does a tremendous amount of research and is able to bring his subjects 'to life'. A couple of years ago I read another of his books "A spy among friends - Kim Philby and the Great Betrayal" which was also first class. |
...
Some notable events in April 2021.
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UK |
Prince
Philip, Duke of Edinburgh, died aged 99. His death and funeral got heaps of
media coverage; perhaps not surprising given that he was the ‘consort’ of
Australia’s Head of State for 73 years.
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USA |
On
29 April President Biden addressed Congress to mark his first 100 days in
office. What a wonderful, calming
influence he has turned out to be after the tumultuous Trump years. Biden
listed a number of early initiatives, including: a remarkable 220 million
doses of Covid vaccine have been administered; the American Rescue stimulus
package to kick-start the economy; and the USA re-joined the Paris Climate Accord
and the World Health Organisation. Biden
also spoke of his Infrastructure Plan, his Jobs Plan, and his Families Plan (total
investment of about $6 trillion!). What a guy - he certainly is a big, positive
thinker!!! US
Department of Defence budget of $715 billion was passed (it is equivalent to
the next 9 countries combined!). At
the Academy Awards “Nomadland” cleaned up with Best Picture, Best Actress (Frances
McDormand) , and Best Director (Chloe Zhao). Anthony Hopkins got Best Actor
for “The Father”. The
2020 US Census was published: population now 331 million. On
24 April the Dow Jones Index broke through 34,000. Apple
announced a profit of $23 billion in Q1 2021. Minneapolis
Police Officer Derek Chauvin was found guilty of murdering George Floyd in
May 2020 by kneeling on his throat for almost 10 minutes.
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China |
GDP
increased by 18% in Q1 2021 (over same quarter last year).
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Australia |
Travel
bubble with New Zealand announced.
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...
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
My 30 year career as an Australian Trade Commissioner has given me an interest in matters related to international trade. I subscribe to Bloomberg's excellent daily newsletter "Supply Lines - tracking Covid-19's impact on trade" (former title 'Trade Matters').
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| Note: This graph from the WTO refers to "Merchandise Trade" - goods only, excluding services, whereas the IMF graph above covers total trade (ie goods and services). |
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| In March 2021the USA set a new record deficit for Merchandise Trade (ie, goods, excluding Services) of $90.6 billion (merchandise exports of $142B and merchandise imports of $232.6B). The US normally has a significant surplus on Services Trade, so the deficit in total trade (goods + services) would be less. |
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| China is still recording very healthy trade surpluses. |
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| Japan's exports were severely impacted by the Covid pandemic. |
...
Covid-19 pandemic
This graph was in The Economist on 27 April 2021.
Covid-19
Pandemic: cumulative cases and cumulative deaths as at 31 January and 30 April
2021 (how the numbers grew in just 3 months!!).
Source: www.worldometers.info/coronavirus
(accessed 30 April 2021) (numbers have been rounded)
|
Country (and ranking by Cumulative Cases as at
30 April) |
As at 31 January 2021 |
As at 30April 2021 |
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|
Cumulative
cases (Millions) |
Cumulative deaths (Thousands) |
Cumulative
cases (Millions) |
Cumulative deaths
(Thousands) |
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|
|
|
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Global
|
103.1 |
2.2M |
150.4 |
3.2M |
|
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|
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|
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1 USA
|
26.6 |
450 |
33.0 |
588 |
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2 India
|
10.8 |
154 |
18.4 |
205 |
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3 Brazil
|
9.2 |
224 |
14.5 |
398 |
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4 France
|
3.2 |
76 |
5.6 |
104 |
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5 Russia
|
3.8 |
73 |
4.8 |
110 |
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6 Turkey
|
2.5 |
26 |
4.8 |
39 |
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7 UK
|
3.8 |
106 |
4.4 |
128 |
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8 Italy
|
2.5 |
88 |
4.0 |
120 |
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9 Spain
|
2.8 |
58 |
3.5 |
78 |
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10 Germany
|
2.2 |
58 |
3.4 |
83 |
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14 Iran
|
1.4 |
58 |
2.5 |
71 |
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15 Mexico
|
1.8 |
157 |
2.3 |
216 |
|
18
Indonesia |
1.1 |
30 |
1.7 |
45
|
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20 South Africa
|
1.5 |
44 |
1.6 |
54 |
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119 Australia
|
29K |
1 |
30K |
1 |
...
Property prices are surging
When Covid hit Australia in March 2020, borders closed, society went into lock-down, and the economy stalled and went into recession. Federal and State Governments reacted with income support packages and later stimulus packages, and the Reserve Bank cut interest rates to almost zero %.
Many commentators said that the economy would take years to recover, and they forecast that property prices would likely fall 20 - 30%. Property prices did go down by a few percent, but after about 6 months they started rising again, slowly at first but then accelerated. Most areas are now experiencing a property boom, with auction clearance rates over 80%, and median prices rising by 10% or more in the first 4 months of 2021.
New Zealand property prices followed a similar trajectory, and 2 weeks ago the NZ Labour Government acted to dampen the market on concerns that young people and people on lower incomes would never be able to afford to buy a home. A number of tax benefits were removed to make property less attractive to investors.
There have been calls for the Australian Government to follow the NZ example, but the conservative government does not seem keen. I saw the following table recently which shows much more difficult it is to buy a home today compared to 50 years ago (and the surge in property prices in 2021 would have added to the woe).
How
many years of average income to buy a median-ranked house in the State capital
cities?
|
City & State |
1970 (Years of average
income) |
2020 (Years of average
Income)
|
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Sydney, NSW
|
4.5 |
12.2 |
|
Melbourne, Victoria
|
3.5 |
9.2 |
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Brisbane, Queensland
|
3.1 |
7.0 |
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Perth, Western Australia
|
3.2 |
6.2 |
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Adelaide, South Australia
|
2.9 |
6.3 |
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Darwin, Northern Territory
|
2.8 |
6.1 |
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Hobart, Tasmania
|
2.9 |
6.5 |
|
Canberra (National Capital)
|
3.5 |
9.7 |
...
That's it for this post.
Vera & I will have our first 'jab' tomorrow (AstraZeneka).
The ACT Brumbies meet the Western Australia Force tomorrow night; the winner to play the Queensland Reds in the Australian Rugby Grand Final the following Saturday. Go Brumbies!!!
Best wishes, stay healthy and keep smiling.
Vera & Alex Olah
Canberra, Australia
Friday 30 April 2021.
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