I am doing a summary of Covid-19 (CV19) every 10 days. This is the third post in the sequence and covers the period 20 - 29 April.
Timeline #1: first 100 days, 1 January – 9 April 2020 (Post #219).
Timeline #2: next ten days, 10 – 19 April 2020 (Post #220).
Timeline #3 (this one): ten days 20 – 29 April 2020 (Post #221).
I am hoping that by breaking it down into 10 day segments we can make more sense of this medical & economic tsunami which has hit the world.
First some raw numbers; frightening to see the progression in the USA; CV19 has taken off in Russia; is developing in Latin America, and parts of South Asia; just starting in Africa.
Covid-19 by the numbers, confirmed cases and deaths (cumulative), global and selected countries.
Source: John Hopkins University / World Health Organisation (from South China Morning Post)
Note 1: On 3 April I started noting daily figures; I chose 16 April as it is half-way through this 27 day period (3 – 29 April); by coincidence these dates were also when the Global number of confirmed cases went from 1 million to 2 m and then 3 m.
Note 2: Often country statistics have been revised upwards as officials catch up.
Date 2020
|
Global
|
Australia
| ||
Cases
|
Deaths
|
Cases
|
Deaths
| |
3 April
|
1,002.159
|
51,485
|
5,116
|
24
|
16 April
|
2,005,414
|
127,792
|
6,494
|
63
|
29 April
|
3,092,946
|
214,336
|
6,721
|
83
|
Date
|
USA
|
Italy
|
Spain
| |||
Cases
|
Deaths
|
Cases
|
Deaths
|
Cases
|
Deaths
| |
3 April
|
236,339
|
5,648
|
115,242
|
13,915
|
110,238
|
10,096
|
16 April
|
609,685
|
26,057
|
162,488
|
21,067
|
177,633
|
18,579
|
29 April
|
1,004,908
|
57,266
|
201,505
|
27,359
|
232,128
|
23,822
|
Date
|
Iran
|
India
|
Indonesia
| |||
Cases
|
Deaths
|
Cases
|
Deaths
|
Cases
|
Deaths
| |
3 April
|
50,468
|
3,160
|
2,356
|
72
|
1,790
|
170
|
16 April
|
76,389
|
4,777
|
11,555
|
396
|
5,136
|
469
|
29 April
|
92,584
|
5,877
|
29,451
|
939
|
9,511
|
773
|
Date
|
Brazil
|
Russia
|
Nigeria
| |||
Cases
|
Deaths
|
Cases
|
Deaths
|
Cases
|
Deaths
| |
3 April
|
7,910
|
299
|
3,548
|
30
| ||
16 April
|
25,262
|
1,532
|
24,490
|
198
|
343
|
10
|
29 April
|
71,886
|
5,107
|
93,558
|
867
|
1,337
|
40
|
Covid-19 pandemic Timeline #3:
20 - 29 April 2020 (days 111 – 120)
Events
and Announcements which caught my eye during this period.
(Compiled
from various media sources by Alex Olah)
(Note:
$ = US dollars unless otherwise stated)
|
Day
|
Date
|
Event / Announcement
|
|
111
|
20
April 2020
|
USA:
4,591
deaths in the last 24 hours. Total now over 41,000.
Global:
Lady
Gaga hosted “One World - Together at
Home” concert. Eight hours; 70 artists including Taylor Swift, Rolling
Stones, Stevie Wonder, Keith Urban. Raised $130 million of CV Relief Fund.
|
|
112
|
21
|
WHO
:
Director
General Tedros referring to Covid-19 in Africa, Latin America, said “The worst is still ahead of us.”
USA:
Texas
oil futures went negative (ie below $0/barrel) for a few hours. How was that
possible? Supply far exceeds demand,
and storage facilities are full. Previous minimum was $10/barrel in 1986.
Predictions of many bankruptcies in Texas.
President
Trump suspended arrivals of new ‘green card’ holders into the USA (459,000 green card holders entered the US in 2019). People on temporary visas, like
seasonal farm workers, still permitted entry.
14
States have said they will start easing restrictions (President Trump said he
disagreed with Georgia’s plan to reopen beauty salons, massage parlours, and
gyms).
Australia:
Local
Councils open some beaches in Sydney for exercise.
Elective
surgery will be permitted again from next week.
Virgin
Australia (our second biggest airline after Qantas) declared “voluntary
administration”.
Iran:
Started
relaxing some restrictions.
Singapore:
Extended
its partial lockdown until end of May.
|
|
113
|
22
|
USA:
Missouri
State lodged a lawsuit suing China for causing CV19.
Wall
Street fell as oil price crashed, Dow Jones Index down 3% to 23,018.
Volatile stock markets, down one day, up the next.
A
Pew poll of 1,000 Americans found 66% held unfavourable view of China (in
2006 the figure was 29%, in 2017 was 47%). Main concerns: China’s impact
on the environment; cyber attacks from China; trade deficits; job losses to
China; China’s military build-up; China’s human rights record.
Netherlands:
Extended
lock-down until 20 May, although will gradually open schools); large events
banned until 1 September.
|
|
114
|
23
|
USA:
Two
pet cats in NYC detected with CV19.
The
first death in the USA was thought to be a man in Washington State on 29
February. But autopsies showed two Californian deaths from CV19, a 57 year old
woman on 6 February and a 69 year old man on 17 February. That suggests
Covid-19 was more wide-spread earlier than suspected. Modelling indicates
that on 1 March, when the official count was just 23 cases, there could
already have been over 10,000 in each of California and New York.
Germany:
Wearing
of facemasks became mandatory on public transport throughout Germany, and
when shopping.
Singapore:
1,037
new cases, the 4th day more than 1,000 (mostly in migrant worker
hostels). Now total of 11,178 cases.
China:
10
new cases, no deaths. There are 959 in hospital, 63 serious. Total cases now
82,798, deaths 4,632.
Australia:
Urged
G20 to ban wildlife in wet markets.
|
|
115
|
24
|
USA:
New
stimulus package of $480 billion approved by Congress and signed by
President, mainly to support small business, hospitals and testing.
New
York City anti-body tests (21%) suggest a much higher incidence of infection
than previously thought. NY State cases total 263,460, deaths 15,740.
4.4
million applied for unemployment, bringing total to 26.5 million.
President
Trump suggested strong light and disinfectants as possible cures for CV19.
After ridicule by health professionals, he back-tracked.
Australia:
Cruise
ship Ruby Princess left Australian waters after arriving in Sydney on 19
March. At least 600 infections and 21 deaths linked to passengers. A police
inquiry is underway to determine why/how passengers were allowed to disembark
the Ruby Princess without testing.
|
|
116
|
25
|
Australia:
In
past month the number of confirmed cases has dropped from a peak of 460 per
day to 13/day; the curve has flattened. The Government is looking at easing
some internal restrictions, but ban on international travel expected to
remain much longer.
The
Australian Govt has introduced stimulus packages totalling A$320 billion. Now
looking at economic reforms for the future.
USA:
Number
of deaths pass 50,000 (has doubled in 10 days).
Governor
of New York State, Andrew Cuomo, said research showed that the NY virus came
from Europe, probably from Italy. He said it was good that flights from China
(the front door) were stopped on 31 January, but flights from Europe (the
back door) continued for another month. He said that by 1 March when the first
case was fund in NY there could already have been 10,000 cases; he locked
down NY State on 19 March. Cuomo warned of a “second wave” later in the year.
The
Republican National Committee suggested candidates blame China for CV19
devastation during the upcoming election campaign.
France:
Preparing
support packages for Air France ($7.5 billion) and Renault ($5.4 billion).
Indonesia:
Internal
travel banned until 31 May (Indonesia is the world’s largest Moslem country;
the fasting month of Ramadan started yesterday).
UK:
Oxford
University started first human trials on a potential vaccine.
|
|
117
|
26
|
Global:
Global
deaths have passed 200,000; have been increasing by 3% - 4% per day over past
10 days. Belgium has the highest fatalities per capita at 6 per 10,000, Spain
4.9 per 10,000, USA 1.6 per 10,000.
WHO:
Noted
there is no conclusive evidence yet that people who get CV19 will have
immunity.
China:
No
CV19 deaths for 11 days.
Australia:
A
voluntary national contact tracing app launched (COVIDsafe); Govt is
appealing for Australians to down-load the app, but many have privacy
concerns. One million signed up in the first 5 hours; needs about 10 million
to join to make it effective.
States
(Qld, WA) announced some easing of social distancing restrictions.
|
|
118
|
27
|
UK:
PM
Boris Johnson returned to work after recovering from CV19.
UK
deaths almost 21,000, but daily increase slowing.
China:
In
Wuhan the final twelve CV19 patients were released from hospital. The Wuhan
lock-down lasted from 23 January to 8 April 2020; total cases in Wuhan 50,333
(out of a country total of 83,851 cases and 4,633 deaths).
Italy:
The
govt has announced that manufacturing companies and construction can start
again next week.
Spain:
Children
allowed outside under supervision, first time in weeks.
|
|
119
|
28
|
Global:
Cases
pass 3 million, with almost 210,000 deaths.
USA:
White
House suspended CV19 daily briefing with Trump blaming hostile questioning by
media.
Bill
Gates warned against premature opening.
New
York’s Democratic Presidential Primary cancelled.
New
Zealand:
Lowered
restrictions from Level 4 to Level 3 as “CV19 eliminated”. Total 1,469 cases
and 19 deaths. NZ went early and hard: on 14 March with 6 cases all visitors
had to self-isolate; 20 March foreign visitors banned; 23 March Level 3
lockdown, raised to L4 on 25 March; 9 April mandatory, supervised isolation.
Germany:
The
economy shrank by 1.9% in the first Quarter of 2020. Forecasts of minus 12%
in Q2, and minus 6.6% for the year 2020.
UK:
BP
announced a loss of $4.4 billion in Q1 2020 (compared to a profit of $2.9
billion in the first Quarter of 2019).
Australia:
Govt
called for an independent review of origin of CV19; China called it “political
manoeuvring”.
|
|
120
|
29
|
USA:
Confirmed
cases of CV19 pass 1 million (doubled in 18 days), with 57,000 deaths (about
the same number of US deaths in the 8 year Vietnam War). About 30% of US cases
have been in New York State.
A
pet dog in North Carolina was detected with CV19.
President
Trump classified meat processing as an essential industry and ordered plants to
continue operating (several closed after outbreaks of CV19).
France:
Preliminary
research shows the CV19 virus did not come directly from China (New York
research indicated Europe as the source, Russia also indicated Europe,
Australia indicated USA). Confirms difficulty of tracing the source of coronavirus
outbreaks.
|
Although it may not seem like it, flu pandemics are not new - there have been 6 in the last 130 years. By far the biggest modern pandemic occurred 100 years ago, the so-called Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918 - 20. Estimates vary but there were at least 500 million cases around the world, and 50 million deaths (12 million in India alone).
The following table gives a summary of modern flu pandemics. I have included SARS and MERS in this table, although they had relatively limited impact and are not classified as pandemics.
Modern
influenza pandemics
(from
internet sources, including Wikipedia)
An influenza pandemic is an epidemic of an influenza
virus that spreads on a worldwide scale and infects a significant proportion of
the world’s population. In contrast to regular winter influenza epidemics, pandemics
occur irregularly – there have been six influenza pandemics during the last 130
years.
|
Years
|
Description
|
|
1889-90
Russian
Flu
H3N8
|
Known
as the Russian Flu.
First
detected in St Petersburg, Russia in May 1889.
Infected:
300 – 900 million.
Deaths:
1+ million.
|
|
1918-20
Spanish
Flu
H1N1
|
Known
as the Spanish Flu.
Origin
is disputed, most likely USA. The first case was detected on 4 March 1918
when Private Albert Gitchell a cook at Fort Riley, Kansas reported sick. It
quickly spread through military camps to Europe (the USA was sending more
than 100,000 troops to Europe every month). Then around the world.
Infected:
500+ million.
Deaths:
50+ million
Some
country death estimates: Australia 15,000; Spain 290,000; UK 320,000; France
360,000; Germany 580,000; USA 675,000; Indonesia 1+ million; India 12+
million.
Countries
involved in WW1 had censorship and did not report on the flu pandemic. Spain
was neutral; because Spanish media were the only ones reporting on the flu,
many believed it originated there and the name stuck.
|
|
1957-8
Asian
Flu
H2N2
|
Known
as the Asian Flu.
First
detected in Guizhou Province, China in February 1957.
Infected:
estimated up to 500 million
Deaths:
estimated 1 – 4 million (mainly in China; 70,000 in USA)
|
|
1968-69
Hong
Kong Flu
H3N2
|
Known
as the Hong Kong Flu.
First
detected in Hong Kong in July 1968.
Infected:
estimated up to 500 million
Deaths:
estimated 1 – 4 million (34,000 in USA).
|
|
2003
SARS
SARS-CoV-1
|
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).
Originated
in Yunnan Province, China (from civets possibly infected by bats).
Infected:
8,096 cases,
Deaths:
774 deaths (90% in China and HK).
|
|
2009
- 10
Mexican
Flu or Swine Flu
H1N1
|
Known
as the Mexican Flu or Swine Flu.
First
detected in Veracruz State, Mexico
Infected:
estimated 700+ million
Deaths:
estimated 150,000 – 575,000 (12,000 USA)
.
|
|
2012
– 20
MERS
or Camel Flu.
MERS-CoV
|
Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), also known as Camel Flu.
Originated
in Saudi Arabia (from camels, possibly infected by bats).
Infected:
2,519 cases
Deaths:
866 deaths (More than 50% in Saudi
Arabia, followed by South Korea and UAE).
|
|
2019
- 20
Covid-19
SARS–CoV-2
|
Covid-19
First
detected in Wuhan, China in December 2019 (from wildlife, possibly infected
by bats).
Infected:
3,092,946 confirmed cases as at 29
April 2020.
Deaths: 214,336 as at 29 April.
|
...
Some countries seem to have brought CV19 under control: China, New Zealand, Australia (but it's still early days and re-opening must be done carefully and gradually). Other countries still have a long way to go.
...
Most big countries (China is a notable exception) are federations, with political power shared between the Federal Government and State Governments.
It has been fascinating to watch the USA system trying to combat this "invisible enemy". Sadly, President Trump's leadership has been found wanting.
We've been luckier in Australia where a National Cabinet was quickly formed comprising the Prime Minister and the Premiers of the six States and Chief Ministers of the two Territories. But even here Premiers sometimes went their own way (especially in relation to schools). Four States (Tasmania, South Australia, Western Australia, and Queensland) actually closed their borders; visitors from other parts of Australia had to show good reason for visiting and anyone entering the State (even returning residents) had to self-isolate for 14 days.
...
One of the unfortunate effects of CV19 has been an increase in anti-Asian (particularly Chinese) sentiment. Leaders and people lashing out, wanting to blame someone, anyone, for this scourge.
This is not the time to allocate blame, we must work together to overcome the pandemic. This is the time to strengthen the WHO, make it stronger and more effective, not make it weaker.
 |
| As reported earlier, we were saddened at the passing of Richard Roberts, Jen's father-in-law. He was a remarkable man: public servant, oyster farmer, strong social conscience, and community involvement. A man for all seasons, a gentleman and a scholar. It was our great privilege to call him a friend. Taken too soon, may he Rest in Peace. |
 |
| Richard Copeland Roberts. Aged 75, he passed away suddenly on 13 April 2020 following a heart attack. Fiona, Tom and Marty immediately went to Broulee to support their wonderful mother, Barbara. Jen and boys followed later. The funeral was held on Tuesday 21 April. Only ten family could attend the service, but it was streamed on the internet where many of his friends could participate. The Order of Service: Welcome by Reverend Linda Chapman; Symbolic recognition (Barbara with Nate, Sid, and Isaac); Eulogy by Marty Roberts; Poems read by Fiona and Tom; Reflection by Rev Chapman; Tribute videos from Kurt (guitar), Brian Reader, Chris Long, Ros Griffin, Tod Hayward, and Francesca (violin). Following the service at St Peter's Anglican College, the funeral procession drove along the main street of Broulee. Many residents lined the street to bid their farewells to Richard. |
...
 |
| Vera and me in Aniko's front garden. |
 |
| Autumn colours in Canberra. |
 |
| My brother, Papa Andy, celebrated ANZAC Day 25 April in Rarotonga with his family. Here he is with son Alex and grandchildren Hinamoana, Etu, and Wenake (born 16 April 2020). |
