Life, Down Under. The digital diary of Vera & Alex Olah: Post #225 8 Jun 2020

Gentlefolk,

I am doing a summary of issues relating to Covid-19 (CV19) every 10 days. This is the seventh post in the sequence and covers the period 30 May to 8 June 2020.

Timeline #1: first 100 days, 1 January – 9 April 2020 (Post #219).

Timeline #2: ten days, 10 – 19 April 2020 (Post #220).

Timeline #3: ten days 20 – 29 April 2020 (Post #221).
Timeline #4: ten days 30 April to 9 May 2020 (Post #222)
Timeline #5: ten days 10 - 19 May 2020 (post #223).
Timeline #6: ten days 20 - 29 May 2020 (post #224).
Timeline #7: ten days 30 May - 8 June 2020 (post #225 - this one)

I hope that breaking it down into 10 day segments will help make more sense of the medical & economic tsunami which has hit the world.

(1) First, let's have a look at what the statistics show over the 67 day period 3 April - 8 June 2020 ten days is too short to appreciate trends, so the start date is 3 April when I began keeping track of cumulative statistics.

These figures show cumulative cases and deaths at the beginning and end of the 67 day period 3 April to 8 June. They give us a sense of the magnitude of this pandemic. I have included the figures for 5 May, which is the half-way point in this period, to show how the numbers moved during this time.

Countries in Latin America, such as Brazil (672K), Peru (196K cases) and Mexico (117K cases), continue to surge; India (246K) is growing; Saudi Arabia has passed 100,000 cases, and Pakistan is not far behind.

Date 2020	Global		Australia
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	1,002.159	51,485	5,116	24
5 May	3,583,983	250,291	6,847	96
8 June	6,913,735	400,384	7,259	102

Date	USA		Italy		Spain
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	236,339	5,648	115,242	13,915	110,238	10,096
5 May	1,180,332	68,920	211,038	29,079	218,011	25,428
8 June	1,928,594	110,047	234,998	33,899	241,550	27,136

Date	Iran		India		Indonesia
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	50,468	3,160	2,356	72	1,790	170
8 May	103,135	6,486	52,987	8,339	12,776	930
8 June	171,789	8,281	246,622	6,946	31,186	1,851

Date	Brazil		Russia		Nigeria
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	7,910	299	3,548	30
5 May	107,844	7,328	145,268	1,356	2,802	93
8 June	672,846	35,930	467,073	5,851	12,233	342

To get a feel for what is actually happening today it is better to look at "Active Cases" and especially "Serious/Critical Cases" (which have the biggest impact on a country's medical services). The following table shows Selected Countries ranked by the number of Serious/Critical Cases.

Covid-19 Selected countries by ‘Active Cases’ and ‘Serious/Critical Cases’ on 19 May and 8 June 2020 (twenty days).

(I started showing these figures on 19 May)

Country	Active Cases		Serious/critical cases
	As at 19 May	As at 8 June	As at 19 May	As at 8 June
Global	2,662,707	3,219,927	44,752	53,752
USA	1,102,647	1,133,272	16,852	16,923
India	57,951	126,431	n/a	8,944
Brazil	136,969	352,566	8,318	8,318
Iran	19,774	29,159	2,294	2,596
Russia	217,747	235,083	2,300	2,300
France	89,960	53,980	1,998	1,053
Spain	53,521	n/a	1,152	617
UK	n/a	n/a	1,559	604
Germany	14,566	7,993	1,133	568
Italy	66,553	35,262	749	287
Indonesia	12,495	18,837	n/a	n/a
Nigeria	4,183	8,173	7	7
Australia	569	455	12	3
China	82	65	8	1

Source: worldometers.info/coronavirus/ accessed 8 June 2020.

I saw this table on the SCMP website this morning:

Virus	Cases	Deaths	Fatality rate
CV19 Dec 2019 – present	6.913,735	400,384	5.8%
USA seasonal flu Annual	13 million	10,000	0.07%
SARS 2003	8,437	813	9.6%
MERS 2012 – 2020	2,494	858	34.4%
Ebola 2018-19	34,453	15,158	43.9%
Mexican / Swine Flu H1N1 2009-10	1,632,258	284,500	12.4%

(2) So, what's been happening in the last 10 days? The following is a short list of Events & Announcements in the period 30 May to 8 June 2020.

Covid-19 Timeline #7: 29 May to 8 June 2020 (days 151 – 160 since 1 January 2020)

Events and Announcements which caught my eye during this period (with a focus on the USA, which attracts most media coverage).

(Compiled by Alex Olah from various media sources, including The New York Times, CNN, BBC, SCMP, Australian Broadcasting Corporation ABC, The New Daily)

(Note: $ = US dollars unless otherwise stated)

Day	Date	Event / Announcement
151	30 May 2020	USA: Trump says HK is “no longer independent” and announces that its special trade status will be removed. He also announced additional restrictions on China, including limiting Chinese researchers working in the USA. Washington State to end stay-at-home orders tomorrow, after 3 months. Boston Marathon was moved from April to September, now cancelled; fist time in 124 years the event will not run. France: Renault to cut 14,600 jobs ( of a global workforce of 180K). UK: Premier League soccer will re-start on 17 June (Manchester City to play Arsenal). Brazil: GDP in Q1 2020 contracted by 1.5% (but -10% predicted for Q2). South Korea: Schools had re-opened, but now closed again as fear of second wave. Australia: Alan Jones, super shock-jock of commercial radio, ended his 35 year career.
152	31 May	USA: President Trump said the USA will leave the WHO; he accused it of being dominated by China and ineffective. Much condemnation of his action in the middle of a pandemic. Widespread protests against police treatment of George Floyd (he neck was kneeled on and died); some violent demonstrations including burning and looting. Elon Musk’s Spaceex and NASA launched astronauts Doug Hurley and Bob Behnken to the International Space Station; first launch in USA since 2011 (they have been using other country’s rockets). India: Easing of restrictions on movement except in ‘hot zones’; Curfew shortened to 9pm to 7am; internal flights permitted.
153	1 June	USA: President Trump postponed the G7 meeting from June until September (some members such as Angela Merkel would not commit to a personal meeting at this time). He said the old membership is “outdated” and will invite new blood such as Russia, Australia, South Korea and India. Protests re police brutality with George Floyd are continuing with more than 4,000 arrests; 40 cities have curfews; 15 States have activated their National Guard. EU: Forecast that the EU economy will shrink by 7.7% in 2020.
154	2 June	USA: April trade figures for goods (excluding services): Exports $95.4B (down 25% from March), Imports $165B (down 14%). Some Facebook staff expressed disappointment at Mark Zuckerberg’s decision not to qualify Trump’s posts (as Twitter has started to do). Unemployment was 4.4% in January, 14.5% in April, and is predicted to be 20% in May. South Korea: Economy shrank by 1.3% in Q1 2020, Central Bank estimates it will go down another 2% in Q2. China: Marriott Group (brands include Marriott, Sheraton, etc) has 350 properties in China, occupancy rate was down to 7% in January, now back to 40% as Chinese economy picks up (Marriott occupancy in USA currently 20%). Australia: Govt allowed people to access up to $10K from Superannuation; 13,000 have withdrawn about A$15B; estimated 60% not spent on essentials. Rugby Union Australia (RA) has cut over 30% of staff.
155	3 June	WHO: 133 potential vaccines are under development in many countries, of which 10 are already in clinical trials in USA, UK, and China. USA: New York State reported only 54 deaths yesterday and 58 today. Concern that the anti-racism (George Floyd) protests may result in more infections. Spain: Second day with no deaths from CV19. Italy: Mandatory temperature testing introduced for all rail passengers. Iran: More that 3,000 new cases, highest in 2 months. Indonesia: Annual pilgrimage to Mecca cancelled for this year.
156	4 June	USA: Stock market good gains this week despite CV19 and growing George Floyd anti-racism demonstrations. California will send mail-in ballots to all registered voters (against Trump’s wishes). China: Wuhan tested 9.9m residents between 14 May and 1 June at a cost of $126m; no new cases found. Australia: National Accounts figures showed GDP shrank by 0.3% in Q1 2020; Treasurer predicted a fall of 8.5% in the current Quarter (Q2) and said that Australia is in recession (two consecutive quarters of negative growth), first recession in 29 years. Govt announced A$860m HomeBuilder program to support building industry; provides A$25K for eligible new homes and renovations.
157	5 June	Global: The Virtual Vaccine Summit hosted by UK raised $8.8B for the global vaccine alliance (GAVI) which promotes vaccines for the poorest countries. USA: 1.9m applied for unemployment last week, bringing the total to 42.6m. The NBA hopes to re-start their season by end-July. New York City will start gradual re-opening on 8 June. Germany: Stimulus package of $146B will give families $400 per child, the VAT will be reduced from 19% to 16%, and subsidy of $7,000 for buyers of electric vehicles. UK: 20,000 new cars were registered in May, 89% less than May 2019. Spain: Study found that 5.2% of the population has CV19 antibodies; significant regional variations.
160	8 June	Global Protests: Demonstrations continue in many countries in support of the “Black Lives Matter” movement against racism and police brutality following the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis on 25 May. 8pm Curfew in New York City lifted. President Trump withdrew National Guard troops from Washington DC, he said the situation is now “perfectly under control”. In Bristol UK, crowd toppled statue of slave trader Edward Colson. USA: CV19 deaths have averaged 1,000 per day in June, half the number in April. China: ‘White Paper’ on medical emergencies identified 5 areas for improvement, including better warning systems. UK: 2 weeks mandatory quarantine started for all arrivals (except Ireland), visitors with no home address will be put into hotels at their own expense.

Three big events of note during the last 10 days:

The on-going "Black Lives Matter" demonstrations in the USA and many other countries in response to the death of George Floyd. Violence and looting in some places - many US cities introduced curfews. Now more peaceful.
The decision by President Trump to leave the World Health Organisation - in the middle of a pandemic!!!
Twitter started to 'fact-check' President Trump's tweets - he was enraged.

...

Stock markets continue to recover, which is surprising given the coronavirus is still rampant (although many countries have started to relax restrictions), and the widespread "Black Lives Matter" demonstrations around the world. Almost all countries are in recession (Q1 and Q2 2020 will show negative growth) so why have share markets regained half their losses and continue to edge up ....???

The Aussie dollar is back up, yesterday close to US$0.68, .... why???

	Australia All Ords	USA Dow DJI	$A/$US
High point 20/2/20	7255	29423	0.672
Bottom point 24/3/20	4564	18591	0.552
Percentage fall to bottom	(37%)	(36.8%)	(21.7%)
Value on 29 May 2020	5957	25548	0.659
Percentage rise since bottom	30.5%	37.4%	19.3%
Percentage fall from top to 29 May 2020	(17.8%)	(13.1%)	(1.9%)

...

Many of us retired folk will relate to this tale of difficulty of surviving the CV19 restrictions; having to make all those decisions every day - it's a tough life!!!

Surviving Covid-19

We are bored here to the extent that I spent most of yesterday conducting a formal Cost Benefit Analysis into a vexing problem, namely, whether to mow our grass or possibly leave it for another day. I identified all sorts of issues including the problem of using up precious fuel that would eventually oblige me to slip out of our safe refuge and go to the petrol station where there is a chance of germs lurking on the fuel nozzle. Even driving to the station for more mower fuel would in itself mean using even more fuel for our car (come to think about it, I had best do a separate Cost Benefit Analysis on that activity too).

A logical extension of the topic of fuel was obviously an assessment of the impact on the environment caused by the mower's exhaust. I sure would not want to be thought of as a person wantonly contributing towards accelerating climate change.

Then there is the question of wear and tear on the motor in my lawn mower, not to mention the wear on the mower blades, and even on the rubber wheels. And I then had to evaluate all of these concerns in a similiar fashion for my accompanying use of my edge trimmer and leaf blower.

Wrestling with all of the above got me through to lunchtime, so I took a well earned break while I mulled it all over.

After lunch naturally I considered the "good neighbour" principle with regard to all the mower noise, and the high pitched whine of the trimmer and leaf blower. I decided that I had better not start anything at that stage because some neighbors might be having a post-lunch nap and I was loathe to disturb them.

But fear not! That period of enforced inactivity was not wasted as it gave me a valuable opportunity to ponder the critical aspects of the effects on wildlife in my lawn. On the one hand, I felt virtuous when I remembered all the birds who rapidly descend on our freshly cut lawn to seek out juicy worms revealed in the shorter grass. But my euphoria soon dissipated when I thought about the poor worms. Then I recalled that our grass is inhabited by huge numbers of moths at the moment, and cutting the grass would deprive them of comfy homes. But the birds would love getting stuck into the clouds of moths, and be grateful for a change of diet. This in turn would increase the well being of the birdlife and enhance their degree of happiness which would encourage them to sing more. The sound of birds singing would make ourselves and the neighbors more relaxed and in tune with nature during these challenging times.

And last but certainly not least, was the critical issue of whether or not I actually like mowing the grass. It did not take me long to decide that I didn't.

By this time, it was afternoon tea. So I set the Cost Benefit Analysis aside for a while as all of these considerations were very troublesome and I was becoming weary.

Then before I knew it, the sun was getting low in the sky, and I was alarmed to think that I would not have time to mow the grass anyway. The days are becoming shorter, and the birds and lawn grubs and moths all go home sooner around here because we don't have daylight saving in Queensland.

So I made an executive decision to postpone my mowing for another day.

Thank goodness that my wise decision yesterday to not do the mowing will now give me something to do today, ie to conduct a Cost Benefit Analysis as to whether or not to mow the grass today.

Wow. Sure am pleased that we are in lockdown so that I have sufficient time to think these important things through properly.

...

Here are some photos of things we have been doing in the last 10 days:

Off to see Andrew & family in Sydney 29 May to 3 June. Our first time out of Canberra since our retrun from India on 16 March 2020.

Goulburn Railway Station is pretty typical country station for NSW Railways.

The countryside is fairly green, but we need more rain.

This forest near Picton was burnt in January 2020 - now reviving.

Andrew practising tennis with the kids in Prince Alfred Park, opposite their apartment.

Some girls were playing skate-hockey nearby. The Council removed the basketball rings to stop groups from using these courts during CV19.

Eddie following dance moves on Tik Tok; he loves dancing!

Eddie getting ready for soccer.

Advice from the coaches before the soccer game.

Playing soccer. His skills have really improved since we saw him in February.

We spent the weekend at Paul & Niniek's place - we helped Paul put up his new 75 inch TV - wonderful picture!

Caz, Andrew, Jay & Eddie relaxing at Paul & Niniek's place.

Jay-jay - uber cute.

The kids helped Paul pick madarines off their tree.

Bush walk.

Eddie & Jay.

Customers lining up at popular Burke Street Bakery near Eddie's school. They practice social-distancing.

Grandkids & us.

Our friend Bron Hensley compiled a photo-book of our India trip and we were able to order a copy. Thanks for the great memories, Bron!

Howard Eakins, his partner Angie and our mutual friend Charles visited us for the long weekend 6 - 8 June. Here Howard is giving Charles some golfing tips. We played twice: at Capital Golf Club, and RMC Golf Club.

We found a big mob of kangaroos in Weston Park, in the middle of Canberra. From left: me, Angie, Howard, Vera. It was a cold morning, around 6C, so we were rugged up. Vera & I met Howard in Jakarta in 1972, 48 years ago.