Post #226 18 June 2020

Gentlefolk,

I am doing a summary of issues relating to Covid-19 (CV19) every 10 days.  This is the eighth post in the sequence and covers the period 9 - 18 June 2020.

Timeline #1: first 100 days, 1 January – 9 April 2020 (Post #219).

Timeline #2: ten days, 10 – 19 April 2020 (Post #220).

Timeline #3: ten days 20 – 29 April 2020 (Post #221).
Timeline #4: ten days 30 April to 9 May 2020 (Post #222)
Timeline #5: ten days 10 - 19 May 2020 (post #223).
Timeline #6: ten days 20 - 29 May 2020 (post #224).
Timeline #7: ten days 30 May - 8 June 2020 (post #225)
Timeline #8: ten days 9 - 18 June 2020 (post #226 - this one)

I hope that breaking it down into 10 day segments will help me make more sense of the medical & economic tsunami which has hit the world.

(1) First, let's have a look at what the statistics show over  the 77 day period 3 April - 18 June 2020 I am using a start date of 3 April when I began keeping track of cumulative statistics.

These figures show cumulative cases and deaths at the beginning and end of the 77 day period 3 April to 18 June. They give us a sense of the magnitude of this pandemic.  I have included the figures for 11 May, which is the half-way point in this period, to show how the numbers moved during this 77 day period.

While the USA still represents about 25% of total cumulative cases, Latin America is now about 21% and continues to surge: Brazil now 923K cases, Peru 237K, Chile 184K and Mexico 154K cases; South Asia is also growing fast: India 354K; Pakistan 154K and Bangladesh 94K cases; Saudi Arabia is now up to 136K cases.

Table 1: Cumulative cases and deaths, selected countries.

Source: JHU/WHO (from SCMP)

Date 2020	Global		Australia
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	1,002.159	51,485	5,116	24
11 May	4,064,491	280,912	6,939	97
18 June	8,202,629	444,766	7,370	102

Date	USA		Italy		Spain
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	236,339	5,648	115,242	13,915	110,238	10,096
11 May	1,326,138	79,384	219,070	30,560	224,350	26,261
18 June	2,153,203	117,423	237,828	34,448	244,683	27,136

Date	Iran		India		Indonesia
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	50,468	3,160	2,356	72	1,790	170
11 May	107,603	6,640	62,808	2,101	14,032	959
18 June	195,051	9,185	354,065	11,903	39,294	2,198

Date	Brazil		Russia		Nigeria
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	7,910	299	3,548	30
11 May	156,862	10,739	209,688	1,915	4,151	128
18 June	923,189	45,241	552,549	7,468	17,148	455

Another milestone yesterday when global cumulative cases passed 8 million, with 444K deaths.  The following table shows how Covid-19 has moved in millions of cumulative cases from the start when the first case was identified in Wuhan on 15 December 2019 to the present.

Interesting that the number of deaths per million cases dropped significantly in May. That could reflect the USA and European countries getting on top of the pandemic (as they showed much higher death rates than other regions). It is one of the puzzling things about this coronavirus: why it seems to hit some people/countries much harder than others???

Table 2: Cumulative cases and deaths, by incremental-increases of one million cases

Date	No. of cases passed Million	Days from previous Million	Deaths on that date	Increase in no. deaths from previous Million
3 April 2020	1 million	110 (from 15 Dec 2019=zero)	51,485
16 April	2 million	13	127,792	76,307
28 April	3 million	12	208,292	80,500
11 May	4 million	13	280,912	72,620
22 May	5 million	11	330,054	49,142
1 June	6 million	10	370,074	40,020
9 June	7 million	9	403,486	33,412
17 June	8 million	8	438,689	35,203

Source: JHU/WHO (from SCMP)

To get a feel for what is actually happening today it is better to look at "Active Cases" and especially "Serious/Critical Cases" (which have the biggest impact on a country's medical services). The following table shows Selected Countries ranked by the number of Serious/Critical Cases.

Table 3: Covid-19 Selected countries by ‘Active Cases’ and ‘Serious/Critical Cases’ on 19 May and 18 June 2020 (thirty days).

(I started showing these figures on 19 May)

Country	Active Cases		Serious/critical cases
	As at 19 May	As at 18 June	As at 19 May	As at 18 June
Global	2,662,707	3,560,553	44,752	54,449
USA	1,102,647	1,200,893	16,852	16,653
India	57,951	160,564	n/a	8,944
Brazil	136,969	436,280	8,318	8,318
Iran	19,774	31,054	2,294	2,789
Russia	217,747	241,481	2,300	2,300
France	89,960	54,932	1,998	772
Spain	53,521	n/a	1,152	617
Germany	14,566	7,652	1,133	406
UK	n/a	n/a	1,559	379
Italy	66,553	23,925	749	163
Indonesia	12,495	22,912	n/a	n/a
Nigeria	4,183	11,299	7	7
China	82	252	8	5
Australia	569	409	12	3

Source: worldometers.info/coronavirus/   accessed 18 June 2020.

(2) So, what's been happening in the last 10 days?  The following is a short list of Events & Announcements in the period 9 - 18 June 2020.

Table 4: Covid-19 Timeline #8: 9 - 18 June 2020 (days 161 – 170 since 1 January 2020)

Events and Announcements which caught my eye during this period (with a focus on the USA, which attracts most media coverage).

(Compiled by Alex Olah from various media sources, including The New York Times, CNN, BBC, SCMP, Australian Broadcasting Corporation ABC, The New Daily)

 (Note: $ = US dollars unless otherwise stated)

Day	Date	Event / Announcement
161	9 June  2020	Global: Milestone: 7M cases, 403K deaths. It took 8 days to increase from 6M to 7M cases. WHO said the pandemic is lessening in Europe, but increasing elsewhere, especially Latin America and South Asia; there have been over 100K new cases in 9 of the last 10 days, yesterday 136,000 new cases. Europe: Modelling by the Imperial College London of 11 European countries showed that lock-down restrictions probably prevented 3M deaths. The 11 countries had a cumulative total of about 11M cases which represented about 4% of the total population (but that varied widely with Germany 1% and Belgium 8%). World Bank: Economic update predicted global economy would shrink by 5.2% in 2020, the biggest fall in 70 years. Singapore: Health Dept said about 50% of CV19 cases did not show symptoms.
162	10 June	USA: 450 deaths – lowest number in 2 months. April international trade of goods & services: Exports $151B (down 21% from March); Imports $201B (down 14% from March). George Floyd’s funeral in Houston.  The policeman who knelt on his neck for almost 10 minutes, Derek Chauvin, and 3 other policemen facing murder / accessory charges. Democrats in House of Representatives propose new legislation re lynching, suing police, banning chokeholds, and making body cameras mandatory for police. New Zealand: Govt declared NZ “CV19 free” – all domestic restrictions lifted; border still closed. Hong Kong: Govt will take 6% share for $5B bailout of Cathay Pacific (the Chairman said that without this support the company would be facing bankruptcy).. Russia: People can move freely around Moscow (Russia still 2,000 new cases/d). UK: Some primary schools re-opened, but secondary schools expected to re-open in September after the summer holidays. France: The Eiffel Tower will re-open to visitors on 25 June; masks mandatory. Australia: Since March the JobKeeper wage subsidy program has paid A$13B to 872,000 business to help keep 3.3M workers on staff.
163	11 June	USA: The Consumer Price Index (the measure of core inflation) has fallen for the last 3 months as prices stabilise or fall with little demand. Germany: Will lift border controls with neighbouring countries on 15 June; Govt still advises against non-essential travel outside Europe.
164	12 June	Global: Big falls on stock markets, following 6.9% drop in the DJI biggest fall since 16 March (markets over-priced, fears of a second wave???). Latin America: Increasing numbers: Brazil close to 800K cases & 45K deaths; Peru 208K & 6K; Chile 148K & 3K; Mexico 129K & 15K. USA: President Trump to start campaign rallies again, 19 June in Oklahoma.
165	13 June	USA: California re-opens cinemas, gyms & bars, etc; masks recommended. NYC first jurisdiction to change police protocols (eg stop chock-hold) as a result of the Black Lives Matter movement. UK: Economy shrank by 20.4% in April; Exports -15%, Imports -22%. France: Will lift restrictions on visitors from EU countries on 15 June.
167	15 June	EU: Said it would not pick sides between USA and China, but work with both. USA: Cases increasing in 18 States, steady in 13, falling in 17. Several, including South Carolina, Alabama, Oklahoma, Oregon and Nevada, have seen number of cases increase by 50% in last week over previous week; New York State only 23 deaths yesterday, with 1,657 cases still in hospital. Jerome Powell, Chair of Federal Reserve, predicted the economy would take years to recover and unemployment would be 9.3% at end of 2020; the Federal Reserve has spent $3T buying debt securities, double during GFC. African-American Rayshard Brooks shot and killed by police in Atlanta, Georgia; Wendy’s Restaurant where it happened was burnt down. China: New outbreak with 57 cases in Beijing most linked to Xinfadi Wholesale Food Market; lock-down of surrounding districts. Iran: Spike in daily deaths yesterday 107, highest in 2 months. Australia: The State of Queensland now allows 100 to attend funerals and wakes, still only 20 for weddings. Hopes to open its internal border on 10 July.
169	17 June	Global: Number of cumulative cases passes 8M (USA is about 25% of total, Latin America 21%), cumulative deaths 437K (doubled in 7 weeks). USA: President Trump executive order outlined acceptable police behaviour. US Supreme Court supported gay job rights. FDA withdrew permit for emergency use of Hydroxychloroquin (no evidence that it works for CV19); Trump took it for 2 weeks. Hollywood Oscars moved from February to April 2021. US Tennis Open will go ahead 31 Aug – 13 Sept, but without spectators. Airlines will enforce the wearing of masks for passengers. Texas new daily record of 2,627 cases of CV19. US/Canada and US/Mexico borders will stay closed to non-essential travel until 21 July. UK: Researchers found that steroid drug Dexamethasone can help very sick CV19 patients. Imperial College London started human trials on its Vaccine; Oxford University started human trials on its vaccine in May.
170	18 June	USA: Florida (2,800), Texas (2,793), and Arizona (2,392) all had record number of daily cases yesterday. Retail sales jumped 18% in May (over April). President Trump will hold a campaign rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma this Saturday; an inside stadium, 20,000 expected; experts warn of CV19 risk. Governor of New York State, Andrew Cuomo, will stop daily CV19 briefings – as required in future - only 17 deaths yesterday. China: Beijing cluster growing – now 137 cases – related cases found in Hebei, Liaoning, and Sichuan. Beijing in partial lock-down. Germany: New cluster of 400 cases at a meatworks in Rheda-Wiedenbrueck.

...

Photos of some things we did in the last 10 days:

Niniek and Paul Milton came for the weekend, their first trip outside Sydney in over 3 months. We had dinner at Sammy's Chinese Kitchen at the Kingston Foreshore (our first time in a restaurant since March). Paul and I played some golf. We also met up with Reno and Heath McMichael, mutual friends.

I often go for a walk around the Jerrabomberra Wetlands near Kingston in Canberra. The circuit from home takes about an hour of fast walking.

A trail near the Wetlands.

Weird eucalyptus tree shedding bark - there are many dozens of different types of eucalypts.

A lake in the Wetlands - beautiful sunset looking back towards Black Mountain. There were many ducks and other birds on the lake.

The "Wednesday Lunch Club" met at our place yesterday: Noel Cock, David Evans, Neale Emanuel, and Paul Flint. We have been meeting every week for 15 years, fun trying different restaurants around town. Christine and Vera were welcome ring-ins on this occasion. It was a nice day so we sat on the balcony (later became cloudy and cool - it is, after all, winter here).

My brother Andy Olah and his grandson Etu. They live in Rarotonga, Cook Islands, lucky sods!.

...

That's it for this post.

Life is slowly getting back to normal. Our gym will re-open this weekend, also more restaurants/clubs and museums/galleries. Super Rugby (Aussie teams) starts 4 July and U3A classes maybe in the next few weeks.

We've noticed that traffic is building up as more people go back to their offices.

Only 3 days till "the shortest day" - yes, it's winter here in the Southern Hemisphere - Sunrise/Sunset are currently 7am and 5pm in Canberra. It's been a fairly mild winter so far, but the coldest months, July and August, are yet to come.

Best wishes, stay healthy and keep smiling!

Vera & Alex Olah
Canberra, Australia
Thursday 18 June 2020.