Post #227 28 June 2020

Gentlefolk,

I am doing a summary of issues relating to Covid-19 (CV19) every 10 days.  This is the eighth post in the sequence and covers the period 19 - 28 June 2020.

Timeline #1: first 100 days, 1 January – 9 April 2020 (Post #219).

Timeline #2: ten days, 10 – 19 April 2020 (Post #220).

Timeline #3: ten days 20 – 29 April 2020 (Post #221).
Timeline #4: ten days 30 April to 9 May 2020 (Post #222).
Timeline #5: ten days 10 - 19 May 2020 (post #223).
Timeline #6: ten days 20 - 29 May 2020 (post #224).
Timeline #7: ten days 30 May - 8 June 2020 (post #225).
Timeline #8: ten days 9 - 18 June 2020 (post #226).
Timeline #9: ten days 19 - 28 June 2020 (post #227 - this one).

I hope that breaking it down into 10 day segments will help me make more sense of the medical & economic tsunami which has hit the world.

(1) First, let's have a look at what the statistics show over  the 87 day period 3 April - 28 June 2020 (using a start date of 3 April when I began keeping track of cumulative statistics).

These figures show cumulative cases and deaths at the beginning and end of the 87 day period 3 April to 28 June. They give us a sense of the magnitude of this pandemic.  I have included the figures for 16 May, which is the half-way point in this period, to show how the numbers moved during this 87 day period.

Top 10 countries by cumulative CV19 cases as at 28 June 2020: USA 2.5M; Brazil 1.3M; Russia 627K; India 509K; Peru 272K; Chile 267K; Mexico 208K; Pakistan 199K; Turkey 196K; Saudi Arabia 175K.  The USA represents about 25% of total global cumulative cases, with Latin America about 22%.

Date 2020	Global		Australia
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	1,002.159	51,485	5,116	24
16 May	4,518,908	305,951	7,019	98
28 June	9,845,161	495,239	7,601	104

Date	USA		Italy		Spain
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	236,339	5,648	115,242	13,915	110,238	10,096
16 May	1,432,045	86,851	223,885	31,610	230,183	27,459
28 June	2,492,246	125,340	240,136	34,716	248,469	28,341

Date	Iran		India		Indonesia
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	50,468	3,160	2,356	72	1,790	170
16 May	146,457	6,902	81,997	2,649	16,496	1,076
28 June	220,180	10,364	508,953	15,685	52,812	2,720

Date	Brazil		Russia		Nigeria
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	7,910	299	3,548	30
16 May	212,198	14,455	262,843	2,418	5,162	167
28 June	1,274,974	55,961	626,779	8,958	23,247	410

To get a feel for what is actually happening today it is better to look at "Active Cases" and especially "Serious/Critical Cases" (which have the biggest impact on a country's medical services). The following table shows Selected Countries ranked by the number of Serious/Critical Cases.

Covid-19 Selected countries by ‘Active Cases’ and ‘Serious/Critical Cases’ on 19 May and 28 June 2020 (period of forty days) (ranked by the number of Serious/Critical cases as at 28 June 2020).

(I started noting these figures on 19 May)

Country	Active Cases		Serious/critical cases
	As at 19 May	As at 28 June	As at 19 May	As at 28 June
Global	2,662,707	4,114,154	44,752	57,707
USA	1,102,647	1,386,787	16,852	15,775
India	57,951	203,328	n/a	8,944
Brazil	136,969	540,692	8,318	8,318
Iran	19,774	29,155	2,294	2,928
Russia	217,747	225,325	2,300	2,300
France	89,960	57,509	1,998	634
Spain	53,521	n/a	1,152	617
Germany	14,566	8,116	1,133	364
UK	n/a	n/a	1,559	276
Italy	66,553	16,836	749	97
Indonesia	12,495	28,183	n/a	n/a
Nigeria	4,183	14,894	7	7
China	82	405	8	8
Australia	569	558	12	1

Source: worldometers.info/coronavirus/   accessed 28 June 2020.  n/a = not available

(2) So, what's been happening around the world in the last 10 days?  

Events and Announcements which caught my eye during the 10 day period 19 - 28 June 2020 (with a focus on the USA, which attracts most media coverage).

(Compiled by Alex Olah from various media sources, including The New York Times, CNN, BBC, SCMP, Australian Broadcasting Corporation ABC, The New Daily)

 (Note: $ = US dollars unless otherwise stated)

Day	Date	Event / Announcement
171	19 June  2020	Global: BBC Research believes global deaths are at least 130K more than official figures. USA: This week seven States set records of seven-day average of new CV19 cases: Alabama, NC, SC, Oklahoma, Oregon, Texas and Florida; yesterday Florida recorded 3,207 new cases, a daily record. Russia: 489 doctors have died from CV19 – not enough PPE. UK: The Bank of England to spend 100 billion pounds (200B announced in March) to buy bonds to keep interest rates low (currently 0.4%). Spain: The Govt announced a special stimulus package of $4,8B for the tourism industry (it represents 12% of the economy). From 1 July visitors to Spain will not need to go into quarantine. Australia: Qantas has cancelled international flights (except NZ) until end-October; will focus on domestic market (doubled last week to 65K passengers). 63K visitors have gone through mandatory 14 day quarantine in hotels at a cost of $118M. Although borders have been closed for months, there are still about 6,500 arrivals per week (citizens, permanent residents & special exemptions).
172	20 June	Global: 150K new cases in a day – new record; 50% in N & S America. Brazil: Approaching 1M cases; yesterday 55K new cases, a record. USA: Cases rising in 23 States (10 of which are recording daily records); Over 30K new cases yesterday, the most in 7 weeks. Italy: Traces  of CV19 found in wastewater dating back to December 2019 (first official case was in Feb 2020)??? China: 25 new cases yesterday; 360K people have been tested in Beijing. Australia: The State of Victoria recorded 18 new cases on Thursday, 13 on Friday and 25 on Saturday. Lifting of some restrictions has been postponed.
174	22 June	WHO: 183K new cases of global CV19 yesterday (biggest contributors: Brazil 58K, USA 37K, India 15K). The first 2 months produced 85K cases, the past 2 months 6M cases! USA: Tyson Foods tested 3,748 staff of which 481 were positive (95% asymptomatic); China has banned imports of frozen chicken from Tyson. Dubai: From 7 July tourists will be able to enter Dubai after testing at airport. Italy: 24 deaths yesterday, the lowest number since 2 March. India: Bloomberg predicts Indian GDP will contract by 10.6% this fiscal year.
175	23 June	USA: At Tulsa Rally President Trump said he asked that testing for CV19 slow down so fewer cases would be found; WH staff said he was just kidding. NYC Metro Transit Authority (Subway) said it was running out of funds due to lower usage (from about 8M passenger trips per day down to 2M). Florida passed 100K cases of CV19. Mayor of Miami City made wearing masks in public mandatory; several counties in Florida followed suit. Carnival Cruise Line suspended cruises until 30 Sept; loss of $4.4B predicted for Q2. LAX Airport will install thermal imaging scanners to check temperature. Germany: 1,550 workers at Toennies meat-processing plant in Rhine-Westphalia tested positive.
176	24 June	EU: Considering banning visitors from the USA as EU internal travel restrictions ease. UK: 175 workers at the 2 Sisters poultry processing plant in Wales tested positive. PM Johnson announced easing of some restrictions from 4 July (social distancing to halve to 1 metre, pubs, restaurants and cinemas to reopen). Serbia: Novak Djokovic and others tested positive following a charity tennis tournament (and partying afterwards). Saudi Arabia: Foreigners will be banned from the Haj Pilgrimage this year; only 1,000 locals will be admitted to the holy sites in Mecca and Medina.
177	25 June	IMF: Latest economic forecast: the global economy will shrink by 5% this year (USA -8%, EU -10%, China +1%); but will grow 5.4% in 2021. USA: NY, NJ, Connecticut will require all visitors to quarantine for 14 days. California 7,149 new cases yesterday for a total of 183K cases and 5,580 deaths; California’s positivity (infection) rate now up to 5.1%. Latin America: In 3 months the number of CV19 cases increased from 700K on 23 March to 2M on 24 June; most cases are in Brazil, followed by Peru.
180	28 June	WHO: Called for donations of $125B from members to fight CV19 in poor countries (especially for vaccine manufacture and distribution). Brazil: Will provide $127M to Oxford University for preferential access if/when its vaccine is developed and approved. USA: First public briefing in 2 months by White House Task Force chaired by Vice President Pence who said the US was over the worst of the pandemic (???). 30 States increasing, 9 steady, 11 falling; 4th consecutive day of daily record, yesterday 45K new cases. Almost 2.5M cumulative cases and 125K deaths. Governor of Texas paused re-opening after spike in new cases; other States may also slow down re-opening plans. 47M Americans have filed for unemployment benefits since mid-March. Spain: Traces of CV19 found in waste-water from March 2019 - strange??? Australia: 41 new cases in Victoria yesterday. Qantas announced 6,000 staff (20% of total) will lose their jobs; 15,000  still on furlough. Private equity firm Bain Capital was the successful bidder for bankrupt Virgin Australia.

...

Interesting graph from the IMF - international trade was already slowing down in 2019, and then the coronavirus pandemic came along!!! The IMF is predicting a strong rebound in 2021, but I suspect the recovery of the global economy & international trade may be more muted.

...

I saw this note a couple of months ago and forgot to include it at the time.  But it is still relevant today.

US Studies Centre, University of Sydney, 29 April 2020.

An unequal burden

COVID-19 has sent economies around the world into freefall, but the pain isn’t being shared equally. New findings confirm what many suspected: low paid workers are suffering the most. Personal and household services are the business most likely to have been forced to close, not deemed as “essential services.”   Since these industries employ a disproportionately large share of women, it is women workers who experiencing the most severe economic impacts of the pandemic.

Contrast this with business services, which have much more scope for remote work arrangements, and it is clear that the pandemic has exacerbated inequality in the workforce . Data from the Australian Taxation Office shows that by 20 April 240,000 hospitality workers lost their jobs and a further 47,000 workers from recreation and arts industries were unemployed. In addition to the impacts on women, an Australian Bureau of Statistics survey reveals higher unemployment rates for those under 30 or over 70.

These trends are even more bleak in the United States. The 22.8 million jobs generated after the Global Financial Crisis have been obliterated. Lower paid and lower skilled jobs that have been at risk of outsourcing and automation are under acute pressure.   Even within in lower paid industrial sectors, it is the lowest paid jobs that are most at risk. Unlike the JobKeeper and JobSeeker programs in Australia, the stimulus payments in the United States do not deliver prolonged support to workers to get through the crisis.

Without more targeted measures, the impact of the pandemic on inequality in the United States will grow, making an America that is already substantially more unequal than Australia even more so.

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Here are some things you should NOT say to traffic Police when pulled over:

I can't reach my license unless you hold my beer.

Sorry, Officer, I didn't realize my radar detector wasn't plugged in. 

Aren't you the  guy from the Village People?

Hey, you must've been doin' about 135 kph to keep up with me. Good job! 

I thought you had to be in relatively good physical condition to be a police officer. 

You're not  gonna check the boot (trunk), are you?

I pay your salary!

Gee, Officer! That's terrific. The last officer only gave me a warning, too! 

Do you know why you pulled me over? Okay, just so one of us does.

I was trying to keep up with traffic. Yes, I know there are no other cars around.  That's how far ahead of me they are.

When the Officer says "Gee. Your eyes look red, have you been drinking?" You probably shouldn't respond with, "Gee Officer your eyes look glazed, have you been eating doughnuts?"

...


Herewith some photos:

My sister Aniko and her husband Peter Carey with birthday girl Adrienne.

Adrienne with boyfriend Michael.

I often walk around the neighbouring suburb of Barton.  Many of the roofs were damaged in the hailstorm in January and haven't been repaired yet - you can see the blue and yellow tarpaulins on this roof.

Back in 1969 (a life-time ago!) I lived in this share-house at 22 Darling Street, Barton. I shared the house with 3 other guys; good memories.

This is part of Telopea Park, which runs between Kingston and Barton. 

One of the magnificent old eucalypt trees in Telopea Park.

In going through some old papers I came across this card. It was given to me by Liu Duo (English name Isabelle) who was in one of my Oral English classes (from March - June 2016) at the China University of Petroleum, Qingdao.  

This is a photo of the students in Non Major #63 (Mar - June 2016) - Isabelle is the girl on the far left. She was from Henan Province; Accounting major; finished with a score of 86%.
That was our last semester teaching English in China - six years - it was a wonderful experience.

With friends from Canberra Old Time Dance Club: Nee & Eugen Braun and Kay & Bob Stoddard. Weekly dances will start again on 9 July, after a break of 3 months.

We went to Jean's funeral - she was the mother of our good friend Geoff McKie (a colleague from Austrade days).  Jean and my mother were in the same Catholic Women's Group. A lovely lady.

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Two big soccer events this week:

Liverpool won the English Premier League - congrats!!!

Australia & NZ were chosen by FIFA to host the 2023 Women's Football World Cup. We can't wait to take Eddie and Jay to some of the games in Sydney.

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Coup time!

24 June 2020, four days ago, was the 10th anniversary of the coup in which Julia Gillard replaced Kevin Rudd as leader of the Parliamentary Wing of the Australian Labor Party, and in doing so she became the 27th (and first female) Prime Minister of Australia.

The coup shocked the nation: it was unbelievable that the Labor Caucus would unseat a first term Prime Minister, and one who had led the ALP to a massive victory in the general election held on 24 November 2007 (in the House of Representatives Labor won an additional 23 seats for a total of 83 (of 150);  the incumbent PM, John Howard, lost his seat, such was the swing to Labor!).

The new PM, Kevin Rudd, and his Deputy PM, Julia Gillard, were tagged "The Dream Team". They seemed to work well together, and the Rudd Government had considerable success: eg Australia avoided recession during the GFC (the only developed nation to do so); apology to the Stolen Generations; replaced Work Choices; launched the National Broadband Network; ratified the Kyoto Climate Change Protocol; withdrew Australian military forces from Iraq; etc.

But appearances can be deceiving. Gillard and her co-plotters (Wayne Swan, Mark Abib, Don Farrell, Stephen Conroy, etc) decided it was time for leadership change; on 24 June 2010 they were able to convince a majority of Caucus to dump Rudd.

To justify her action Gillard claimed that "a good government had lost its way". Later, she and her cohorts also blamed Rudd's personality and leadership style.

Australians showed their displeasure at the general election held on 21 August 2010 when Labor lost 11 seats; Gillard had to form a minority Government with support of the Greens and 3 independents.

Rudd became Gillard's Foreign Minister, but it was not a happy coexistence.

Gillard's popularity plummeted; finally, on 26 June 2013 (almost 3 years to the day) Caucus elected Rudd as leader again - a full circle! But by then the Government was in a deep hole and, despite Rudd's best efforts, it lost the subsequent election held on 7 September 2013.

Rudd resigned from the Australian Parliament on 22 November 2013; he had been in Parliament for only 15 years - but, oh, what a ride!!!

I, personally, thought that Kevin Rudd had the makings of an outstanding Prime Minister of Australia and I was very disappointed that his tenure was cut short. 

The coup sparked a period of unprecedented instability: four PMs did not complete their first terms Rudd, Gillard, Abbott, Turnbull. Let's hope that this crazy period of "death by polls" is now behind us.

...

That's it for this post.

Best wishes, stay healthy and keep smiling.

Vera & Alex Olah
Canberra, Australia
Sunday, 28 June 2020.