Post #219 12 April 2020

Gentlefolk,

This post provides a timeline of the first 100 days of the Covid-19 pandemic.

I have been noting news items which catch my eye. But they quickly became a blur (information overload!) so I decided to compile them into a Timeline, to better understand the origins and early development of this disastrous saga.

Who could have imagined that a microscopic little coronavirus in Wuhan China would bring the world economy to its knees in just 100 days???  It really is an incredible story.

Covid-19 pandemic: the first 100 days

(Compiled by Alex Olah from various media sources)

To keep it simple, I designated “Day 1” of the Covid-19 saga as 1 January 2020.

The dates shown are probably out by a day or even two – depends when I saw the report on a news site.

There is debate as to when this coronavirus was first detected, some say it surfaced in Wuhan in November 2019 or even earlier. I have used 16 December 2019 as the nominal start date, when the Chinese say the first patient was admitted to hospital in Wuhan.

While the Timeline has an Australian focus, President Trump gets frequent mention … he dominates world news …

Day	Date	Event
December 2019
-15	16 Dec	First patient admitted to Wuhan Hospital. Wuhan, a large city of over 11 million people, is the capital of Hubei Province.
-4	27	Hubei Provincial Government advised of unknown new virus
-1	31	27 cases in Wuhan. China advised WHO of the new unknown/novel coronavirus (CV).
January 2020
1	1 Jan	Wuhan wet market closed.
3	3	According to CNN, the novel coronavirus was first mentioned in the White House Daily Intelligence Briefing today. The US National Center for Medical Intelligence (under the Pentagon) started following the novel coronavirus in December 2019. Another report said that President Trump got his first proper briefing on CV19 on 18 January.
5	5	WHO advised its member countries of the novel coronavirus (CV). Later designated Covid-19 (CV19).
8	8	First death; a 61 year old male died in Wuhan Hospital.
9	9	China released map of novel CV’s genome (genetic sequence). It is not SARS or MERS. Welcomed by scientists around the world.
10	10	WHO posts guidelines on its website.
13	13	First case found outside China, in Thailand.
19	19	Beijing sent team of epidemiologists to Wuhan to learn more about the novel CV. First case detected in Australia.
20	20	China advised WHO that human-to-human transmission is confirmed. Cases detected in cities around Wuhan. First case detected in South Korea.
21	21	US Center for Disease Control (CDC) confirms first case in USA (the person arrived from China on 15 January).
22	22	Trump “only one case in the USA – it’s all under control”. (On 26 January there were just 15 cases in the USA).
23	23	800 cases, 25 dead, Wuhan (city of 11 million) locked-down.
24	24	Lock-down extended to neighbouring cities around Wuhan, to cover 36 million people.
28	28	WHO senior delegation visited China re CV19.
29	29	Peter Navarro, President Trump’s top trade advisor, circulated a memo around the White House warning of a pandemic.
31	31	China 11,000 cases, 258 dead. Cases detected in UK, Spain, Italy, France. President Trump stopped direct flights from China to the USA (but an estimated 43,000 people still arrived from China, and screening was ‘patchy’). WHO declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern”.
February 2020
32	1 Feb	Australia stopped direct flights from China
34	3	President Trump “We shut it down!”
35	4	Global 20,000 cases, 425 deaths. First death outside China, in Manila. WHO declares it an Epidemic.
36	5	CDC started distributing testing kits around USA (but some were faulty).
47	16 – 24	WHO Expert Mission to China (including experts from USA, Canada, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Russia).
56	25	Trump, visiting India, said “it’s under control”.
58	27	Prime Minister Scott Morrison unveiled Australia’s “CV19 Action Plan” (but everything was pretty relaxed).
60	29	Australia - first case of community transmission.
March 2020
61	1	Australia – first death (from Diamond Princess).
63	3	51 cases in UK; PM Boris Johnson declared “Level 4 Crisis”.
64	4	Now more outside China than inside. China 80,151 cases, 2,943 deaths. China experienced 150 dead in one day – turned out to be its peak.
66	6	Italy had 197 deaths; government announced restrictions. First death in UK.
67	7	CV19 now in 100 countries; tourism, travel, hospitality industries devastated. Stock markets around the world crashed (and continued to fall).
69	9	USA 524 cases; Trump said “less dangerous than the flu”.
71	11	1,000 cases in USA; 456 cases in UK; 60 cases in India. President Xi Jin Ping visited Wuhan; no new cases in Wuhan today. Italy locked down.
72	12	WHO declared a Pandemic. Europe now the epicentre, especially Italy (and then Spain). Australian Government announced first stimulus package A$17.6 billion. (There will be two further packages: 22 March A$66B, 30 March A$130B. The individual States also introduced support packages – eg the ACT Govt (where Vera & I live) announced two packages of $137m and $214m.)
73	13	Many stock markets around the world fell about 30% in a week. Oil price down 24% in Saudi-Russia stoush. London Marathon cancelled; English Premier League soccer halted. PM Morrison announced formation of a “National Cabinet” for Australia comprising the Prime Minister, and leaders of all the States and Territories.
74	14	2,500 cases in the USA. President Trump declared “National Emergency”; he said “the virus is very contagious but is under tremendous control”. USA blocked direct flights from Mainland Europe (the following day expanded to include UK and Ireland).
75	15	PM Morrison announced that all arrivals in Australia must self-isolate at home for 14 days (but no checking or enforcement provisions). This was the last weekend for normal football games for Rugby League, Rugby Union and Aussie Rules, before crowd restrictions came into force from tomorrow. In Canberra a crowd of 8,000 watched the ACT Brumbies beat the NSW Waratahs 47-14. The Brumbies (Rugby Union) and the Raiders (Rugby League) had good starts to the year, but unfortunately their success was cut short. The codes tried playing games in empty stadiums, but when some States and NZ brought in 14 day self-quarantine for all visitors, the games ceased.
76	16	Estimates from John Hopkins University today: Global cases 183,198, deaths 7,165. USA cases 4,226.  President Trump issued social distancing guidelines. Tom Hanks and his wife left hospital on Queensland's Gold Coast where he was filming. Firearm sales booming in the USA. Stock markets still falling; the Dow Jones Index will shortly go below 20,000 (roughly back to where it was when Trump was elected), and later start climbing again.
76	16	Vera & I returned from our three week holiday in India.  There was no screening at Sydney International Airport, we got through Immigration and Customs quickly. Caught a bus to Canberra, and started our two weeks of self-isolation at home. When we left Australia on 22 February the stock market was at a record high, we knew about CV19 but it was basically in China and seemed far away. When we got back 3 weeks later the whole world had changed!!! How could/did it happen so quickly???
77	17	Qantas announced 90% cut in international flights and 60% cut in domestic flights. The Aussie dollar dropped to A$1=US$0.61 (it fell to US$0.55 before recovering).
79	19	The Ruby Princess cruise ship docked in Sydney with 2,647 passengers and 1,148 crew.  All passengers were permitted to disembark without screening (they would cause many infections and deaths around Australia).
80	20	Australia closed its borders to everyone except Australian citizens and Permanent Residents.  681 cases in Australia with 6 deaths. Italy 41,000 cases and 3,405 deaths (Italy has passed China’s death total of 3,249). UK: pubs, cafes, restaurants closed.
81	21	Australian Govt introduced second stimulus package (Job Seeker) $32.6 billion.
82	22	Global figures now exceed 300,000 cases and 13,000 deaths. WHO noted CV19 is accelerating: it took 67 days to reach 100,000 cases, another 12 days to reach 200,000, and only 4 days to reach 300,000.
84	24	Trump “it’s like flu, nothing to worry about”.
85	25	Tokyo 2020 Olympics postponed until July 2021. Australia announced Stage 2 restrictions; some States closing their borders; testing criteria widened. PM Modi of India gave four hours warning of a 21 day nation-wide lock-down (I was hugely impressed by his determined action).
86	26	USA $2 trillion stimulus package. Temperature screening started at Sydney Airport. Italy now 6,820 deaths. Spain 3,434 deaths.
87	27	USA with 82,000 cases becomes epicentre (passed Italy’s 81,000 cases). Australia introduced mandatory, supervised isolation for all arrivals (govt paid hotel costs).
89	29	Australia reduced permitted group size from 10 to only 2 persons.
April 2020
94	3	Grim milestones: Now over 1 million global cases, and 52,000 deaths. WHO recommended wearing face masks (after saying not effective).
97	6	The Queen of England’s TV message. US military medics assigned to help States with CV19. Americans bought more firearms in March than in any month since the FBI started keeping records more than 20 years ago. The FBI conducted 3.7 million background checks in March (1.1 million more than in March 2019).
99	8	Australia introduced third package (Job Keeper) A$130 billion. USA deaths 1,858 in one day. China 32 new cases, but no deaths for 4 days (totals now 81,740 cases and 3,331 deaths). Wuhan lock-down ended after 76 days; more than 55,000 today exit the city in which they had been stuck.
100	9	Boris Johnson 3rd day in ICU. 932 new cases in UK. Three tigers in Bronx Zoo tested positive (assumed transmitted by one of their handlers who tested positive to CV19). President Trump accused WHO of incompetence and “favouring China”; threatens to cut funding. A study found mortality rates at 28/29 March of 4 Western countries (USA, UK, Spain & Italy) averaged 6.3%, and six Asian countries (China, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, HK, and Taiwan) averaged 3.7%.

Covid-19 by the numbers (cases and deaths are cumulative)

(Source WHO / SCMP)

Date 2020	Global		Australia
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
23 March	335,972	14,642	1,353	7
4 April	1,088,878	58,243	5,330	28
10 April	1,606,782	95,990	6,108	51

Date	USA		Italy		Spain
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
28 March	101,242	1,588
2 April	210,694	4,703	105,792	13,155	102,136	9,053
10 April	452,582	16,129	143,626	18,279	152,446	15,238

Date	Iran		India		Indonesia
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	50,468	3,160	2,356	72	1,790	170
10 April	66,220	4,110	6,653	199	3,293	280

Date	Brazil		Russia		Nigeria
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	7,910	299	3,548	30
10 April	16,474	839	10,131	76	276	6

So many questions, including:

How / Why are USA cases going up so much?  Even if Chinese figures are understated as some claim, the USA already has 5 times as many cases, and it hasn’t even peaked yet???

Fortunately the mortality rate in the USA has been low.  But that begs the question: why is the mortality rate so high in Italy, and Spain (and UK)???

There are many countries where the real situation is still unknown (because lack of testing), such as India, Indonesia, Brazil, Russia, Nigeria. The tsunami still to come …?

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What a global disaster in terms of lives and livelihoods.

Australia has had a rough time: drought, bushfires, floods, now Covid-19.

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I wonder what the second 100 days will bring???

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Best wishes, stay healthy and keep smiling.

Vera & Alex Olah
Canberra, Australia
Sunday 12 April 2020 (Easter Sunday)

Post #218 4 April 2020

Gentlefolk,

This post gives an overview of our tour of India 22 February - 16 March 2020.

The following posts relate to the 14 cities we visited: Delhi, Agra, Jaipur, Pushkar, Jodhpur, Udaipur, Mumbai, Chennai, Pondy, Trichy, Madurai, Thekkady, Alleppey, and Cochin.

Blog posts on India trip,  22 February – 16 March 2020.

Post Number and date posted	Events described in post
Post #204     posted 20 March 2020	On 22 February 2020 we flew to Delhi for the start of our 24 day India Grandeur Tour. This post describes the flights with Singapore Airlines and our time in Delhi (highlights: the autorickshaw (tuk-tuk) ride through Old Delhi, the Sikh Temple, and the Qutub Minar Minaret). We stayed at the Vivanta by Taj Hotel in Dwarka for 2 nights, 22 & 23 February 2020.
Post #205         posted 20 March	Describes our visit to Agra (highlights: Taj Mahal and Agra Fort). We stayed at the Mansingh Palace Hotel for one night, 24 February 2020.
Post #206         posted 21 March	Describes our visit to Jaipur (aka The Pink City) in Rajasthan State (highlights: the step well at Chand Baori; Amber Fort; City Palace). We stayed at the Sarovar Premier Hotel for 2 nights, 25 & 26 February 2020.
Post #207         posted 21 March	Describes our visit to Pushkar in Rajasthan State (highlight: the Brahma Temple). We stayed in Dera Masuda Resort for one night, 27 February 2020.
Post #208         posted 22 March	Describes our visit to Jodhpur (aka The Blue City), Rajasthan State (highlights: Mehrangarh Fort and the new Palace). We stayed at The Ummed Resort for two nights, 28 & 29 February 2020.
Post #209         posted 24 March	Describes our visit to Udaipur, Rajasthan State (highlights: Jain Temple, City Palace Museum, Lake Pichola and Jagmandir Island). We stayed at the Kehloor Hotel for two nights, 1 & 2 March 2020. With its hills and lakes, Udaipur was the most attractive city we have seen so far.
Post #210         posted 26 March	Describes our visit to Mumbai (aka Bombay) (highlights: Gateway of India monument, Leopold’s Café). Mumbai is India’s business center, a huge, bustling, exciting city.  We stayed in the Ambassador Hotel in Churchgate for 2 nights, 3 & 4 March 2020. We instantly felt at home in Mumbai.
Post #211         posted 27 March	Describes our visit to Chennai (aka Madras) the capital of Tamil Nadu State (highlights: St Thomas Cathedral; Marina Beach). We stayed in the comfortable Crowne Plaza Hotel for 2 nights, 5 & 6 March 2020.
Post #212         posted 29 March	Describes our visit to Puducherry (aka Pondicherry, or just Pondy) (highlights: Auroville; French Quarter). We stayed in the Accor Metropolitan Hotel for one night, 7 March 2020.
Post #213         posted 30 March	Describes our visit to Trichy (proper name Triuchirappalli) (highlights: steep Rock Fort Temple; busy Sri Ranganathaswarmy Temple with its 7 gates). We stayed in the Sangam Hotel for one night, 8 March 2020.
Post #214         posted 31 March	Describes our visit to Madurai, Tamil Nadu State (highlights: Sri Meenakshi Temple dedicated to Shiva and his wife; autorickshaw ride through the city).  We stayed in the JC Residency for 2 nights, 9 & 10 March.
Post #215         posted 1 April	Describes our stay at the Mountain Courtyard Resort, Thekkady, Kerala State on 11 March 2020.
Post #216         posted 1 April	Describes our stay on the houseboat at Alleppey, Kerala for the night of 12 March 2020.
Post #217         posted 2 April	Describes our visit to Cochin (aka Kochi), Kerala State, our final destination on this tour (highlights: the old districts of Cochin Fort and Jew Town).  We had a spacious room in the Crowne Plaza Hotel for two nights 13 & 14 March 2020. We flew to Singapore on Sunday night, 15 March 2020, and then on to Sydney.
Post #218         posted 4 April	A summary / overview of our visit to India.

Three weeks was just enough to scratch the surface of this huge, multifaceted country. I can't say that I really know India after such a short time, but here are some personal impressions.

What was the highlight of the tour? For me it was seeing magnificent, bustling Hindu Temples and getting a feel for the importance of religion in everyday life - witness (sacred) cows wandering around everywhere. And India's long history going back many centuries. Religion and history pervade today's culture (so different from Australia).

What was the lowlight (if there is such a word)? For me there were three: (1) getting "the trots" on the houseboat in Alleppey, being sick is never fun; (2) being taken to tourist shops and restaurants by the guide, a couple of times was OK, but after that a waste of precious time; (3) our hotels were generally on the outskirts of cities, pretty isolated - mid city may have given us more insight into life in India.

But, overall, everyone agreed that it was a very good tour and good value.  We saw and did a great deal in a short time.

Some other impressions:

The most attractive cities, for me, were Udaipur in Rajasthan and Cochin in Kerala. I would like to visit those two places again.

On 24 & 25 February 2020 Hindu extremists attacked a Moslem area in Delhi; 53 people died and over 200 were injured, many shops, houses, and a mosque damaged.  Fortunately we were not affected, but it made us realise that there were communal tensions under the surface.

From admittedly limited contact, Indians seemed friendly and helpful. I chatted to some - English is widely spoken - several times I learnt that they were actually residents of other countries (eg England, Canada, USA), back here on a visit. The Indian diaspora is huge - an estimated 30 million live in other countries (including many in Australia).

People, generally, seemed reasonably well dressed and well fed - of course there is poverty, but I didn't see the "abject poverty" (eg people dying on the streets) which I had expected.

I was intrigued to learn that the Communist Party is currently in government in Kerala State.  It was first elected in 1957, and has been a regular contestant in elections since then.

Millions of motor bikes in India, but all petrol (in China motor bikes are now electric, much better for the environment!).

India is a kaleidoscope of colour and movement and smells and sights and sound. So many impressions it's hard to know where to start & stop; this brief summary will do for now.

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We arrived home and went straight into "self-isolation" for 14 days (there was no health checking at Sydney Airport - slack!!! - didn't start for another week).  Our self-isolation finished on Tuesday, but our lives haven't changed much, we are staying close to home.  All our usual leisure activities have been suspended (eg U3A, gym, dancing, volunteering) and everyone is practising social-distancing.

Back home in Canberra, a BBQ for Vera's birthday. We would normally have friends around, but the government has banned more than two people getting together.

We were delighted with the silk carpet and doona cover which we bought in Jodhpur.

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Covid-19

A quick update on the coronavirus, which is dominating our lives at present.

Who would have thought that a little bug which originated in Wuhan, China could bring the world to its knees in just 4 months????

The world has hit a new milestone with over 1 million cases of CV-19; and I'm afraid there will be a lot more to come - it is just starting out in countries like India and Indonesia.

Date 2020	Global		Australia
	Infections	Deaths	Infections	Deaths
23 March	335,972	14,642	1,353	7
25 March	423,543	18,876	2,317	8
27 March	525,614	23,706	2,810	13
29 March	649,904	30,249	3,640	14
31 March	775,306	37,083	4,361	18
2 April	932,013	46,667	4,980	21
4 April	1,088,878	58,243	5,330	28

Italy and Spain have been hit hard, with over 10,000 deaths in each. The USA is now the epicenter with 300,000 cases but fortunately only 8,000 deaths so far.  Australia looks to be in reasonable shape.

The Australian Government has introduced mandatory, supervised self-isolating for all incoming arrivals; the Army is helping. Strange seeing army uniforms on TV - most unusual for Australia.

All around the world hospitality and travel industries have been crushed; many people working from home; schools closed; the list goes on and on.

In Australia people aged over 70, the most vulnerable group, have been told to only leave home for essential activities (shopping, medical). Gatherings of more than two people have been forbidden.

In the USA 10 million people lost their jobs in the last two weeks. Commentators are saying that the economic impact of CV-19 will be much bigger than the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09.

India is in a 21 day lock-down (we got out just in time!) - chaotic scenes of untold thousands people trying to return to villages.  I am so impressed that Prime Minister Modi has taken this bold step -  didn't believe it possible in such a huge, diversified federation - extreme measures are required to break the vicious cycle of infections.

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I'm not sure when I will do another post - there is very little happening in our lives at the moment, and for the foreseeable future.

In the meantime, best wishes, stay healthy and keep smiling.

Vera & Alex Olah
Canberra, Australia
Saturday, 4 April 2020.