Sunday, 12 April 2020

Post #219 12 April 2020

Gentlefolk,

This post provides a timeline of the first 100 days of the Covid-19 pandemic.

I have been noting news items which catch my eye. But they quickly became a blur (information overload!) so I decided to compile them into a Timeline, to better understand the origins and early development of this disastrous saga.

Who could have imagined that a microscopic little coronavirus in Wuhan China would bring the world economy to its knees in just 100 days???  It really is an incredible story.



Covid-19 pandemic: the first 100 days
(Compiled by Alex Olah from various media sources)

To keep it simple, I designated “Day 1” of the Covid-19 saga as 1 January 2020.

The dates shown are probably out by a day or even two – depends when I saw the report on a news site.

There is debate as to when this coronavirus was first detected, some say it surfaced in Wuhan in November 2019 or even earlier. I have used 16 December 2019 as the nominal start date, when the Chinese say the first patient was admitted to hospital in Wuhan.

While the Timeline has an Australian focus, President Trump gets frequent mention … he dominates world news …

Day
Date

Event
December 2019

-15
16 Dec
First patient admitted to Wuhan Hospital. Wuhan, a large city of over 11 million people, is the capital of Hubei Province.

 -4
27
Hubei Provincial Government advised of unknown new virus

 -1
31
27 cases in Wuhan. China advised WHO of the new unknown/novel coronavirus (CV).

January 2020

1
1 Jan
Wuhan wet market closed.

3
3
According to CNN, the novel coronavirus was first mentioned in the White House Daily Intelligence Briefing today. The US National Center for Medical Intelligence (under the Pentagon) started following the novel coronavirus in December 2019.
Another report said that President Trump got his first proper briefing on CV19 on 18 January.

5
5
WHO advised its member countries of the novel coronavirus (CV). Later designated Covid-19 (CV19).

8
8
First death; a 61 year old male died in Wuhan Hospital.

9
9
China released map of novel CV’s genome (genetic sequence). It is not SARS or MERS. Welcomed by scientists around the world.

10
10
WHO posts guidelines on its website.

13
13
First case found outside China, in Thailand.

19
19
Beijing sent team of epidemiologists to Wuhan to learn more about the novel CV.
First case detected in Australia.

20
20
China advised WHO that human-to-human transmission is confirmed.
Cases detected in cities around Wuhan.
First case detected in South Korea.

21
21
US Center for Disease Control (CDC) confirms first case in USA (the person arrived from China on 15 January).

22
22
Trump “only one case in the USA – it’s all under control”. (On 26 January there were just 15 cases in the USA).

23
23
800 cases, 25 dead, Wuhan (city of 11 million) locked-down.

24
24
Lock-down extended to neighbouring cities around Wuhan, to cover 36 million people.

28
28
WHO senior delegation visited China re CV19.

29
29
Peter Navarro, President Trump’s top trade advisor, circulated a memo around the White House warning of a pandemic. 

31
31
China 11,000 cases, 258 dead.
Cases detected in UK, Spain, Italy, France.
President Trump stopped direct flights from China to the USA (but an estimated 43,000 people still arrived from China, and screening was ‘patchy’).
WHO declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern”.

February 2020

32
1 Feb
Australia stopped direct flights from China

34
3
President Trump “We shut it down!”

35
4
Global 20,000 cases, 425 deaths.
First death outside China, in Manila.
WHO declares it an Epidemic.

36
5
CDC started distributing testing kits around USA (but some were faulty).

47
16 – 24
WHO Expert Mission to China (including experts from USA, Canada, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Russia).

56
25
Trump, visiting India, said “it’s under control”.

58
27
Prime Minister Scott Morrison unveiled Australia’s “CV19 Action Plan” (but everything was pretty relaxed).

60
29
Australia - first case of community transmission.

March 2020

61
1
Australia – first death (from Diamond Princess).

63
3
51 cases in UK; PM Boris Johnson declared “Level 4 Crisis”.

64
4
Now more outside China than inside.
China 80,151 cases, 2,943 deaths.
China experienced 150 dead in one day – turned out to be its peak.

66
6
Italy had 197 deaths; government announced restrictions.
First death in UK.

67
7
CV19 now in 100 countries; tourism, travel, hospitality industries devastated.
Stock markets around the world crashed (and continued to fall).

69
9
USA 524 cases; Trump said “less dangerous than the flu”.

71
11
1,000 cases in USA; 456 cases in UK; 60 cases in India.
President Xi Jin Ping visited Wuhan; no new cases in Wuhan today.
Italy locked down.

72
12
WHO declared a Pandemic.
Europe now the epicentre, especially Italy (and then Spain).
Australian Government announced first stimulus package A$17.6 billion. (There will be two further packages: 22 March A$66B, 30 March A$130B. The individual States also introduced support packages – eg the ACT Govt (where Vera & I live) announced two packages of $137m and $214m.)

73
13
Many stock markets around the world fell about 30% in a week.
Oil price down 24% in Saudi-Russia stoush.
London Marathon cancelled; English Premier League soccer halted.
PM Morrison announced formation of a “National Cabinet” for Australia comprising the Prime Minister, and leaders of all the States and Territories.

74
14
2,500 cases in the USA.
President Trump declared “National Emergency”; he said “the virus is very contagious but is under tremendous control”.
USA blocked direct flights from Mainland Europe (the following day expanded to include UK and Ireland).

75
15
PM Morrison announced that all arrivals in Australia must self-isolate at home for 14 days (but no checking or enforcement provisions).
This was the last weekend for normal football games for Rugby League, Rugby Union and Aussie Rules, before crowd restrictions came into force from tomorrow.
In Canberra a crowd of 8,000 watched the ACT Brumbies beat the NSW Waratahs 47-14.
The Brumbies (Rugby Union) and the Raiders (Rugby League) had good starts to the year, but unfortunately their success was cut short.
The codes tried playing games in empty stadiums, but when some States and NZ brought in 14 day self-quarantine for all visitors, the games ceased.

76
16
Estimates from John Hopkins University today: Global cases 183,198, deaths 7,165. USA cases 4,226. 
President Trump issued social distancing guidelines.
Tom Hanks and his wife left hospital on Queensland's Gold Coast where he was filming.
Firearm sales booming in the USA.
Stock markets still falling; the Dow Jones Index will shortly go below 20,000 (roughly back to where it was when Trump was elected), and later start climbing again.

76
16
Vera & I returned from our three week holiday in India.  There was no screening at Sydney International Airport, we got through Immigration and Customs quickly. Caught a bus to Canberra, and started our two weeks of self-isolation at home.

When we left Australia on 22 February the stock market was at a record high, we knew about CV19 but it was basically in China and seemed far away. When we got back 3 weeks later the whole world had changed!!! How could/did it happen so quickly???

77
17
Qantas announced 90% cut in international flights and 60% cut in domestic flights.
The Aussie dollar dropped to A$1=US$0.61 (it fell to US$0.55 before recovering).

79
19
The Ruby Princess cruise ship docked in Sydney with 2,647 passengers and 1,148 crew.  All passengers were permitted to disembark without screening (they would cause many infections and deaths around Australia).

80
20
Australia closed its borders to everyone except Australian citizens and Permanent Residents.  681 cases in Australia with 6 deaths.
Italy 41,000 cases and 3,405 deaths (Italy has passed China’s death total of 3,249).
UK: pubs, cafes, restaurants closed.

81
21
Australian Govt introduced second stimulus package (Job Seeker) $32.6 billion.

82
22
Global figures now exceed 300,000 cases and 13,000 deaths.
WHO noted CV19 is accelerating: it took 67 days to reach 100,000 cases, another 12 days to reach 200,000, and only 4 days to reach 300,000.

84
24
Trump “it’s like flu, nothing to worry about”.

85
25
Tokyo 2020 Olympics postponed until July 2021.
Australia announced Stage 2 restrictions; some States closing their borders; testing criteria widened.
PM Modi of India gave four hours warning of a 21 day nation-wide lock-down (I was hugely impressed by his determined action).

86
26
USA $2 trillion stimulus package.
Temperature screening started at Sydney Airport.
Italy now 6,820 deaths. Spain 3,434 deaths.

87
27
USA with 82,000 cases becomes epicentre (passed Italy’s 81,000 cases).
Australia introduced mandatory, supervised isolation for all arrivals (govt paid hotel costs).

89
29
Australia reduced permitted group size from 10 to only 2 persons.

April 2020

94
3
Grim milestones: Now over 1 million global cases, and 52,000 deaths.
WHO recommended wearing face masks (after saying not effective).

97
6
The Queen of England’s TV message.
US military medics assigned to help States with CV19.
Americans bought more firearms in March than in any month since the FBI started keeping records more than 20 years ago. The FBI conducted 3.7 million background checks in March (1.1 million more than in March 2019).

99
8
Australia introduced third package (Job Keeper) A$130 billion.
USA deaths 1,858 in one day.
China 32 new cases, but no deaths for 4 days (totals now 81,740 cases and 3,331 deaths).
Wuhan lock-down ended after 76 days; more than 55,000 today exit the city in which they had been stuck.

100
9
Boris Johnson 3rd day in ICU.
932 new cases in UK.
Three tigers in Bronx Zoo tested positive (assumed transmitted by one of their handlers who tested positive to CV19).
President Trump accused WHO of incompetence and “favouring China”; threatens to cut funding.

A study found mortality rates at 28/29 March of 4 Western countries (USA, UK, Spain & Italy) averaged 6.3%, and six Asian countries (China, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, HK, and Taiwan) averaged 3.7%.


Covid-19 by the numbers (cases and deaths are cumulative)

(Source WHO / SCMP)

Date 2020
Global
Australia

Cases
Deaths
Cases
Deaths
23 March
335,972
14,642
1,353
7
4 April
1,088,878
58,243
5,330
28
10 April
1,606,782
95,990
6,108
51

Date
USA
Italy
Spain

Cases
Deaths
Cases
Deaths
Cases
Deaths
28 March
101,242
1,588




2 April
210,694
4,703
105,792
13,155
102,136
9,053
10 April
452,582
16,129
143,626
18,279
152,446
15,238

Date
Iran
India
Indonesia

Cases
Deaths
Cases
Deaths
Cases
Deaths
3 April
50,468
3,160
2,356
72
1,790
170
10 April
66,220
4,110
6,653
199
3,293
280

Date
Brazil
Russia
Nigeria

Cases
Deaths
Cases
Deaths
Cases
Deaths
3 April
7,910
299
3,548
30


10 April
16,474
839
10,131
76
276
6

So many questions, including:

How / Why are USA cases going up so much?  Even if Chinese figures are understated as some claim, the USA already has 5 times as many cases, and it hasn’t even peaked yet???

Fortunately the mortality rate in the USA has been low.  But that begs the question: why is the mortality rate so high in Italy, and Spain (and UK)???

There are many countries where the real situation is still unknown (because lack of testing), such as India, Indonesia, Brazil, Russia, Nigeria. The tsunami still to come …?


...

What a global disaster in terms of lives and livelihoods.

Australia has had a rough time: drought, bushfires, floods, now Covid-19.

...

I wonder what the second 100 days will bring???

...

Best wishes, stay healthy and keep smiling.

Vera & Alex Olah
Canberra, Australia
Sunday 12 April 2020 (Easter Sunday)

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