Post #235 31 December 2020

Gentlefolk 

 This post describes our activities during December 2020.

The contents are in the following sequence:

• Photos of our activities;
• Graphs related to international trade;
• Brexit;
• USA election aftermath;
• Covid-19;

Photos of some of our activities during December 2020.

Our grandson Sid Roberts receiving the Award as Best Boy Sportsman at Hilder Road Primary School graduation ceremony on 3 December 2020. He will join his brothers at Marist College Ashgrove next year.

Paul Barratt contributed an essay for new book "A Secret Australia". I attended the book launch at Paperchain, Manuka, and then drove Paul to Canberra Airport for his return to Armidale. He is an outstanding Australian!

Xmas get-together of the Australia Indonesia Families Association (AIFA) of the ACT; always lots of great food and camaraderie.

Father Xmas entertaining AIFA kids.

Xmas lunch with ex-Austraders, from left: Paul Worsley, Les Boag, Geoff McKie, Peter Kane, John Twohill, John Bush, Ian Ffrench, Jim Enright, and me.

Stephen Wise was in charge of repairing the water leak in our building.

Apparently "The Wharf Revue" has been a popular satirical performance for several years.  I went on 14 December and enjoyed the skits immensely - very clever take on current issues and politicians - presented by a small cast of just 5 talented actors. 

The Wharf Review was held in The Playhouse, adjacent to the Canberra Theatre. I hadn't been here for years - it is a good venue.

19 December New Vogue dancing Xmas Social organised by Audrey and Rob at Belconnen Seniors; a most enjoyable night.

A Covid cluster was found on Sydney's northern beaches; the NSW Govt labeled Greater Sydney (from Gosford to Wollongong) as a hot-spot. Suddenly everyone was on alert -  desperate to avoid another Victoria-type lock-down. Thousands of people got tested, with only a handful 'positive' each day - although the number of positives cases jumped to 18 yesterday! The Canberra Government decreed that anyone returning from Sydney had to self-isolate for 14 days - our planned trip to Gosford over New Year went up in smoke!!!

20 December: to get into Xmas spirit, we took Andrew & family to Christmas Carols run by the Baptist Church of Kingston. Beautiful setting under huge gum trees in Telopea Park.  Luckily they arrived in Canberra a few hours before the self-isolation requirement was introduced.

At Carols-in-the-Park.

We visited "Cockington Green" miniature village at Gold Creek, Canberra, from left: Caroline, Eddie, Andrew, & JJ.

Lovely gardens and displays at Cockington Green.

Caz and Andrew took the kids on the miniature train around Cockington Green.

On 22 December we took Eddie to a Big Bash League (BBL) cricket game at Manuka Oval; Sydney Thunder played Perth Scorchers - the Thunder chased 152 and won in the last over. In BBL each side faces 20 overs (6 balls an over), so it is quick and action-packed. This game lasted 3.5 hours.

Manuka Oval is a good venue for cricket; it is about 1km from our apartment.

Three generations enjoying BBL cricket. It was quite a cold night - hence the jackets we were wearing - Canberra often cools down at night, even in summer.

Eddie practicing soccer skills; he loves soccer and tennis - his eye-hand coordination is getting good.

Jay and I found a mob of kangaroos at Weston Park; always amazing to see wild animals in the middle of our city.

Family Xmas-Eve dinner on 24 December (German-tradition) at Southern Cross Club, Jamison. We had dinner here last year, amidst the choking smoke, and it worked well, so here we are again. Britt organised the table decorations and the Xmas tree, and Sasha arranged the food (but Sasha, Davide, Bonnie and Oscar couldn't join us because of the Covid situation in Sydney).

After a delicious dinner it was time to exchange presents. Nouvie, Eddie and Jay handed them out. From left: Tuey, Lani, Britt, Nouvie, Jay, Andrew, and Caz.

From left: Angie, Michael, Peter, Adrienne, and Aniko. It was an enjoyable night. We got home about 10pm and fell into bed. The following morning (Xmas Day) Eddie and Jay got more presents, then we had breakfast before they all left for Sydney.

Morning of Xmas Day, 25 December, we had to evacuate the building due to a fire alarm. Fortunately it was a false alarm; the kids were excited to see a real fire engine up close.

Vera & I saying goodbye to Eddie and Jay after breakfast; Andrew & family drove to Sydney to celebrate Xmas Day with Caz's parents, Niniek and Paul.

Sad news on Xmas Eve that our good friend John Holmes OAM had passed away. It was not unexpected; John was almost 96 and had not eaten solid food for several months. We visited him regularly in the Nursing Home, and watched him fade away.  We will attend the funeral on 31/12.

John was my boss when I worked in the Trade Section of the Australian Embassy, Bangkok. Here we are in February 1974 escorting Prime Minister Gough Whitlam to lunch with the Australian Business Community in Bangkok. John was a great boss, a thoroughly decent person, and we established an enduring friendship.

John Holmes leading a staff sing-a-long in Bangkok.

John and Elise Holmes hosted a welcome reception for my successor Peter Jamvold, Bangkok, June 1974.

A photo of Vera & me in Bangkok, June 1974. Happy days!!!

With John's daughter, Lucie Holmes Alexander. Lucie flew from Perth 10 days ago as John's condition weakened. This photo was taken on 19 December during our last visit with John; he was in a semi-conscious state.  

We attended John's funeral on 31 December. Other ex-Trade colleagues who were there: Brian and Geoff Hill, Gerald Lynch, John Smith, Bruce Kentwell.
John had a varied and interesting life. His passions were Family, Classical Music, International Trade, and Rugby.  On retirement he devoted much time teaching and writing about classical music, and was awarded an OAM for that contribution.
A very special person. Rest in Peace, John.

Lucie giving the eulogy at John's funeral this morning.

On 26 December I went to another BBL game at Manuka Oval. This time Sydney Thunder played Melbourne Renegades.  Thunder batted first and made a (record) 209 runs (20 year old Ollie Davies top scored with 48, which included 4 consecutive sixes).  Then they bowled the Renegades out for just 80 runs! 

At the BBL game, from left: Jeffrey Evans, David Evans, Noel Cock, and me. From not being at Manuka Oval for many years, I was there twice in less than a week....

Garbage truck drivers held a strike for more pay. Ridiculous - they are already very well paid (highest in Australia!), and it is also during an economic recession when wages are, if anything, going down.  They didn't get the 12% over 3 years they wanted, but still ended up with 10.2%. Salaries and wages in Canberra are crazy - far too high.  

Price of fuel at Costco (cheapest in Canberra) on 20 December 2020. Prices have been pretty steady this month - international crude oil prices have risen but the Aussie dollar has also appreciated (why, I don't know?).

This month I read about Australia's agricultural development. The author (Emeritus Professor Craig Pearson, worked in Australia and Canada) calls the period 1950 - 2000 the "golden age" of plant innovation.  New, adapted legumes that fixed their own nitrogen made farming more sustainable and profitable.
The academic at the forefront of these developments was Professor John Gladstones of the University of Western Australia. He bred new varieties of pasture legume, including the first narrow-leaf grain lupin, and contributed significantly to grape-growing and wine.

...

International Trade

My 30 year career as an Australian Trade Commissioner has given me an interest in matters related to international trade.  I subscribe to Bloomberg's excellent daily newsletter "Supply Lines - tracking Covid-19's impact on trade" (former title 'Trade Matters').  

The coronavirus pandemic has had a big impact on countries' economies and on international trade.  

Here are some of the more interesting graphs in the Bloomberg newsletter during December 2020; they are largely self-explanatory.

Demand has soared, leading to increases in freight charges.

Many economies are "bouncing back", which is putting pressure on container shipping.

The USA traditionally has a large deficit in merchandise (goods) trade, and a big surplus on services trade; but this year that surplus has been reduced due to falls in tourism (and likely lower numbers of international students).

Despite much talk of 'decoupling', foreign companies are investing a record amount in China.

...

Brexit

I was disappointed when, 4 years ago, the UK voted 52% - 48% to leave the European Union; after all the wars and conflict of past centuries I felt that increased unity would enhance the likelihood of peace in Europe.  

The following poll was published in The Economist on 10 December 2020. Public opinion has changed significantly since the Referendum was held in 2016 - the result would be very different now!

But it's all too late - after 47 years in the EU, the UK formally exited in January. A last-minute trade deal was finally reached last week which avoided a "hard exit" when the trade-transition period expired today.

...

USA politics

The election was held on 3 November 2020. The Democrats narrowly retained the House of Representatives; the Senate is very close again, with the two Georgia Senate seats to be determined in a run-off in early January. Despite Joe Biden (Dem) winning the Electoral College 306 - 232, President Trump alleged widespread fraud and has still not conceded (there is no evidence of widespread electoral fraud, even the Department of Homeland Security said it was "the most secure election in American history").

It is so sad to see America being subjected to this torture, because of one man's vanity.  At the end of the day, Biden will be inaugurated as the next President of the USA on 20 January 2021, but in the meantime the mess continues - so unnecessary and undignified.

Goodbye, President Trump.

Please stop whining and please don't give Joe Biden a hard time.  

The Washington Post tracker has identified over 26,000 false or misleading statements made by President Trump during the past 4 years.

The USA has a new economic stimulus package worth US$900 billion (the EU has a new package worth 750 billion euros).

Biden nominated Katherine Tai, 46, as his new US Trade Representative.

...

Covid-19

Covid-19: Global and top ten countries as at 30 December 2020 by Cumulative Cases and Cumulative Deaths; 91 days from 30 September to 30 December 2020.

M = million, K = thousands. Figures have been rounded. NA = not immediately available (ie I don't have those figures to hand).

	30 Sept 2020	26 Oct 2020	31 Nov 2020	30 Dec 2020
Global	33M / 1M	43.4M / 1.2M	63M / 1.5M	82.3M / 1.8M
1. USA	7.2M / 205K	8.9M / 231K	13.6M / 273K	20M / 347K
2. India	6M / 96K	7.9M / 119K	9.4M / 137K	10.3M / 148K
3. Brazil	4.8M / 142K	5.4M / 157K	6.3M / 173K	7.6M / 193K
4. Russia	1.1M / 20K	1.5M / 1.1K	2.3M / 40K	3.1M / 56K
5. France	NA	1.1M / 35K	2.2M / 52K	2.6M / 64K
6. UK	NA	NA	1.6M / 58K	2.4M / 72K
7. Turkey	NA	NA	NA	2.2M / 20K
8. Italy	NA	526K / 37K	1.6M / 55K	2.1M / 73K
9. Spain	716K / 31K	1.1M / 35K	1.7M / 45K	1.9M / 50K
10. Germany	NA	NA	1.1M / 17K	1.7M / 32K

Source: www.worldometer.info/coronavirus accessed 30 December 2020.

In 91 days the number of global cumulative cases has gone from 33 million to more than 82 million. A new, more infectious, strain has been found in the UK, and is spreading globally. 

The USA and many European countries are experiencing "second waves" - yesterday there were over 50,000 new cases of Covid in the UK, and the Government has responded with more lock-down measures.

Anti-Covid vaccines made by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna are being produced and distributed as quickly as possible; the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is close to being approved, and the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is close too.

In Australia the number of cases is still small, but the Federal and State governments are vigilant because numbers can increase so quickly.  Today there were 10 new cases reported in NSW and 3 new cases in Victoria (the first in Victoria for 2 months!).

...

John le Carre, master spy-novelist, died on 12 December 2020 aged 89.

...

That's it for this post, and for this year.

Wouldn't that be nice!

Our very best wishes for 2021, stay healthy and keep smiling.

Vera & Alex Olah

Canberra, Australia

Thursday 31 December 2020.

Post #234 30 November 2020

 Gentlefolk,

This post describes some of our activities during the month of November 2020. The contents are in the following sequence:

• Photos of our activities;
• Graphs related to international trade;
• Comments on the US Elections held on 3 November;
• Covid-19;
• Two prominent deaths: Sean Connery and Diego Maradona.

...

Herewith photos of some of our activities during November 2020:

We (Vera, Aniko and I) visited my sister, Angie, on 1 & 2 November. She lives in Narooma on the South Coast of NSW, about 250 km from Canberra. 

Lunch at Anton's Cafe in Dalmeny, the best fish & chips in the world!

A view of Narooma Golf Club from Anton's.

Siblings celebrating Angie's birthday.

The following morning we picked mulberries at Angie's friend's place. Fresh mulberries are yummy with yoghurt!

This fisherman was cleaning his catch, which attracted many pelicans and seagulls looking for a feed.

The toilet block in the park at Bar Beach has an interesting mural.

On the return journey we had lunch with Barbara Roberts in Batemans Bay.

We attended the launch of Geoff Raby's book. Geoff was at the Beijing Embassy with us in 1986; he later returned as Australian Ambassador to China 2007 - 11. 

Prof Hugh White interviewed Geoff Raby about his book; two real experts on China. Geoff's basic message was that we shouldn't just follow the USA (Trump) blindly on China, but develop our own approach, based on engagement not containment. He spoke of  "The China Threat Industry" - intelligence agencies and the military-industrial complex which thrive on creating enemies.
 

We took a photo with Geoff after the book launch, and briefly recalled our time together in Beijing in 1986 (a lifetime ago!). Geoff now lives in Beijing, and has a consulting company advising foreign companies on doing business in China. 

Angie and Howard Eakins visited us from Sydney. A most enjoyable long weekend. Howard and I played golf twice. I showed them around Old Parliament House, always fun and interesting.

We visited the miniature English village at Cockington Green. Fascinating.

Model of a 'High Street' scene from an English village.

This exhibit showed a soccer game, and the first 'streaker' back in 1979.

A golf scene - that's me on the left, I've just 4-putted!

They also had some foreign scenes, like this one depicting the La Boca neighbourhood in Buenos Aires, Argentina. This is where Tango originated.

A Hungarian village and church - note the Hungarian flag red / white / green.

A 'stick figure' made from plastic tubing; clever.

11 November, another book launch; this book investigates the involvement of Queen Elizabeth in the sacking of the Whitlam Government by the Governor General Sir John Kerr on 11 November 1975. The launch was, appropriately, held in King's Hall of Old Parliament House where this drama unfolded exactly 45 years ago.
The formal launch was done by impressive the Hon Tanya Plibersek MP, Shadow Minister. Unfortunately she had to return to Parliament, so couldn't stay for the panel discussion.

The Panelists, left to right: Daryl Karp (moderator), Tony Smith MP (Speaker of the House of Representatives), Senator the Hon Scott Ryan (President of the Senate); and the authors of the book, Paul Kelly and Troy Bramston. It was a very interesting discussion. The book argues that the Queen had little direct involvement in the plot, that the main protagonist was Kerr (with his side-kick, Malcolm Fraser, Leader of the Opposition). That view is disputed by Prof Jenny Hocking whose persistence resulted in the correspondence between Kerr and the Palace being made public. She believes the Palace was involved, if only at the margins.

Came across this sign, across the road from our place.  My beautiful sister and her husband are selling this property. Canberra's real estate market has been strong despite the Covid-19 recession - up 3% so far this year - most employment here is underpinned by the Federal Govt, so jobs are more secure than in other jurisdictions. But the stock market puzzles me - virtually every country in the world is in severe economic recession, yet stock markets have bounced back since the sharp falls in March / April and are doing well - why????

Planting of a "Friendship Tree" in Canberra's Beijing Garden on 18 November.

The VIPs at the tree planting, from left Brendan Smyth representing the ACT Govt, HE Ambassador Cheng Jingye, and Carol Keil, President of the Australia China Friendship Society. There is so much negative commentary about China these days that it was nice to see something positive, and non-political, take place.

The ANU's Chinese Music Ensemble entertained the 50 or so people who attended this private event.

17 November, participated in my first 18 hole competition at Capital Golf Course, partnering Bill Nelson; on an adjusted handicap of 24 I scored just 22 points - not a promising start! I've been playing nine holes about three times a week since I joined the Course six weeks ago, and am really enjoying it, although I wish I would spend more time on the actual fairway!!!

On 20 November we attended the funeral service for Joseph Saputra (Soei Djing Liang). He was a distant cousin of Vera's (their grandmothers were sisters). He was a fine man; very sad to see him gone 74 years old).
RIP, Joseph!

Joseph was an impressive man: husband, father, investor, blogger, linguist, avid traveller, and champion table-tennis player.
In Indonesia he was a well-regarded GP and part-time medical lecturer. In 1983, aged 37, he brought the family to Australia because he felt the prospects for Chinese-Indonesians were limited. He couldn't practice medicine here, so he and Irene opened an Indonesia Restaurant in Melbourne - a tough business. In 1994 Irene got a job with the Australian Tax Office and the family moved to Canberra. We met Joseph and Irene by chance in 2006, established the family connections, and kept in touch.

Joseph's immediate family: Irene (wife) and children Christine, Shenny (and their kids), and son Adrian.

The mourners lined the driveway as the hearse drove past.

We have a water leak in a corner of the living room. It took a while for the cause to be identified (a crack in the building facade). We are hoping that the Body Corporate will arrange repairs before Xmas???

Ketut Nanik Clynes' birthday celebration. Vera and Nanik are related (Vera calls her 'aunty'); the family hails from Singaraja in Bali.

A bevy of (Indonesian) beauties; all such good friends. Indonesians love to joke and laugh (and eat) - gatherings are always good fun.

Nanik and Adrian Clynes.

Vera & me. The birthday lunch was held at Lark Hill Vineyard, about 30 km from Canberra.  You can see the vines in the background.

Yesterday we attended the Brass Band concert at Hall, just north of Canberra. It was a busy day: we had lunch with Nee & Eugen Braun, then visited my old boss John Holmes, attended the Brass Band concert, and finished off with dinner with Sharon Loiterton at an excellent Indian restaurant.

...

I read two books during November.

Autobiography of Effie Logan (real name Joan Hogan, nee Schutt). It turned out to be a lovely story. Joan was born in 1929 in Captain's Flat (about 60 km south-east of Canberra), married at 17, had the first of 8 children when she was 18, and became a grandmother when she was just 39. Her first husband, Arthur Davidson, was a labourer cum dozer operator.
The title of the book derives from the fact that they moved about 50 times in the 30 years she was married to Arthur. 
At the age of 48 she finally divorced Arthur and 4 years later married her second husband, Robert Hogan. Life was much more tranquil with Robert.
I found it a fascinating window into country life in this part of Australia in the 1940s - 80s. A story of amazing resilience - she brought up 8 kids on a shoe-string.

India was in a state of anarchy in the 1700s, as the once-mighty Moghul Empire centered in Delhi split into a number of competing States/Regions. This book covers the half-century from about 1750 when the British East India Company started getting more directly involved, until 1803 when they assumed effective control of most of India. 
If you ever wondered how relatively-small Britain came to dominate such a vast and wealthy country, this fascinating book is for you.

...

International Trade

My 30 year career as an Australian Trade Commissioner has given me an interest in matters related to international trade.  I subscribe to Bloomberg's excellent daily newsletter "Supply Lines - tracking Covid-19's impact on trade" (former title 'Trade Matters').  The coronavirus pandemic has had a huge impact on international trade.  

Here are some of the more interesting graphs in the Bloomberg newsletter during November 2020; they are largely self-explanatory.

According to Bloomberg, by about 2035 China's economy will be the biggest in the world; by 2050 the top ten economies will be, in order: China, USA, India, Indonesia, Germany, Japan, Brazil, France, UK, and Turkey.

...

The 2020 USA Election

The BIG event this month was the USA election, held on Tuesday 3 November 2020 (which was Wednesday 4 Nov in Australia).

We followed the counting avidly for the next few days - it was on all the TV channels here - very close, excruciating, Trump took an early lead in Electoral College votes but then Biden came home strong, and won all the so-called 'Battleground States' of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia (which Biden won by just 12,670 votes!!!). 

It took a few days, finally on Sunday 8 November (Aust time) we woke up to hear that most media networks had called the election for Biden; he had passed the magic number of 270 Electoral College votes - Yippeeee!!! 

As at 11 November, a week after Election Day, Biden was being credited with 290 Electoral College votes to Trump's 214 with some States still too close to call.  Biden was also leading the "popular vote" 76.9 million to 71.9 million. The turnout rate (the proportion of registered voters who actually voted) was estimated at 67%, the highest for more than a century.

By 16 November most commentators were giving Biden 306 Electoral College votes to Trump's 232 - these were exactly the Trump v Clinton figures in 2016 - and Biden was leading the popular vote 78.8m to Trump's 73.1m (the final margin was more than 6m votes).

But President Trump has refused to concede - alleging widespread voter fraud, he accused Biden of stealing the election; Trump mounted many legal challenges which kept getting dismissed for lack of evidence. 

On 24 November, 3 weeks after Election Day, the General Services Administration (GSA) finally announced that the formal transition to Biden would commence. Trump (reluctantly) agreed, but said that the election was rigged and had involved "massive fraud", that he had won by a mile, and that he would fight to the end. 

In response to good news regarding vaccines against Covid-19, and that the transition has begun, the Dow Jones Index broke through 30,000 for the first time ever, but for how long remains to be seen.

Biden did not seem a particularly strong candidate to me, but I must say that his initial actions have been most impressive. He projects an image of calm reasonableness and calls for unity and understanding - such a contrast to Trump's abrasiveness, bullying and accusations (usually without supporting evidence).

WELCOME BACK TO THE WORLD, AMERICA!!!

I realise that polls are under scrutiny again, but anyway, herewith an Exit Poll which gives some indication how people voted.

US Election exit poll on Tuesday 3 November 2020:

(Exit polls by Edison Research, 15,318 respondents.)

	Biden %	Trump %
Gender
Men	48	49
Women	56	43
Ethnicity
White	42	57
Black	87	12
Hispanic	66	32
Asian	63	31
Other	58	40
Age
18 - 29	62	35
30 – 44	52	45
45 - 64	50	49
65+	48	51
Education
College Graduate	55	42
No College	49	49

Top 5 concerns of voters: Economy 35%; Racial Inequality 20%; Covid-19 17%; Crime & Safety 11%; Health Care 11%.

...

Covid-19

The coronavirus pandemic continues to surge (Globally 63M cumulative cases and 1.5M cumulative deaths); but there is some good news - three vaccines are close.

Today the top 12 countries are: USA 13.6 million cumulative cases and 273 thousand cumulative deaths; India 9.4M and 137K; Brazil 6.3M and 173K; Russia 2.3M and 40K; France 2.2M and 52K; Spain 1.7M and 45K; UK 1.6M and 58K; Italy 1.6M and 55K; Argentina 1.4M and 39K; Colombia 1.3M and 37K; Mexico 1.1M and 106K; Germany 1.1M and 17K.

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Two prominent deaths in November.

Sean Connery died, aged 90. The original, and best, James Bond, 007.

Maradona with the World Cup won by Argentina in 1986. Such a talent; his life had many ups and downs. He died aged 60.

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That's it for this post.

Best wishes, stay healthy and keep smiling.

Vera & Alex Olah

Canberra, Australia

Monday 30 November 2020