Gentlefolk,
This post describes some of our activities in September 2021.
The contents of this post are in the following sequence:
Covid humour
Photos of our activities during September 2021 (followed by Books read and TV series watched this month).
Tokyo Paralympic Games.
Some news items which caught my eye in September 2021
International trade.
USA & China: Economy and Trade
Covid-19 pandemic.
First, some Covid humour:
...
Photos of some of our activities during September 2021.
For most of the month our activities were restricted by Canberra's lockdown which started on 12 August - residents had to stay home except for essential shopping and medical appointments and one hour of exercise per day - although really, for Vera and me, the lock-down restrictions were more of an inconvenience than a hardship.
Fortunately the Government started relaxing restrictions from mid-Sept, so that groups of up to 5 friends can meet in outdoor areas and golf / tennis are allowed.
September 1 is the official beginning of Spring in Australia, a time of rising temperatures and growth. |
The view from our balcony taken on 1 September. |
The same view from our balcony taken on 29 September. |
Canberra's annual Floriade Festival had to be cancelled for the second time due to Covid restrictions; the Government planted flowers in the suburbs instead. |
Floriade flowers. |
We had coffee with friends at Bowen Park, near our apartment; nice to see people getting out and about again. |
This "gateway" (?) in Bowen Park was erected in 2013 by the Hungarian Embassy to mark the centenary of the founding of Canberra. |
The Government has built a number of "Hides" around the Wetlands to facilitate bird-watching. |
The "Hides" have small windows where people can watch birds and other wildlife. |
Other wildlife near the Wetlands. Canberra is known as the "Bush Capital" and it is true - you can be in the countryside within minutes. |
My sister Aniko and husband Peter often walk their dogs around Mount Ainslie. |
Canberra is about 600 metres above sea level - walking to the top of Mount Ainslie is a good challenge. |
BOOKS
A variety of books this month, unusually mostly fiction.
A 'coming of age' tale set in regional Western Australia. Teenage boys become obsessed with surfing; push boundaries. Very well written, Tim Winton is a good author. |
...
TV series watched in September 2021.
Six empty seats (Russia) SBS |
Six workmates miss a flight which
crashes, how their lives are impacted, and finally a major robbery gone
wrong.
|
Lie after lie (Korea) SBS |
A woman is framed for the murder
of her husband and jailed for ten years; on release she seeks answers and
reconnects with her daughter.
|
The bad kids (China) SBS |
Three kids witness a murder and
blackmail the man to raise money for a sick friend.
|
The Machinery (Sweden) SBS
|
A reformed man is framed, and how
he overcomes the odds.
|
Beneath the surface (Germany) SBS
|
A boy is lost overboard and how
his family and friends react. A psychological drama. |
Lupin (France) Netflix |
Man seeks the truth of his
father’s conviction and suicide. Lupin is a gentleman thief, a lovable rascal,
and a master of disguise always a step ahead of the opposition.
|
...
Webinars / Book launches in September 2021.
AIIA 31/8 |
“Our exceptional friend:
Australia’s fatal alliance with the United States”, by historian Dr
Emma Shortis.
|
ANU 9/9 |
Book launch “Young Suharto,
the making of a soldier 1921 – 45” by journalist and historian David
Jenkins.
|
AIIA 8/9 |
Book launch “Not always
diplomatic” by former ambassador Sue Boyd.
|
Lowy 23/9 |
“Australia’s nuclear powered
submarines”. Panel Richard McGregor (Lowy), Bilahari Kausikan
(Singapore), Yun Sun (Stimson Center); Nadege Rolland (Asian Research).
|
...
Tokyo Paralympics
The Toyko Paralympics were held 24 August to 5 September. Many wonderful, inspiring, disabled athletes.
The following Table compares the Total Medals won in the Summer (Normal) Olympics and the Paralympics. Some interesting results: eg the USA came first in the Summer Olympics with 113 medals, but came 4th in the Paralympics with 104 medals. The Ukraine improved, coming 5th in the Paralympics compared with 16th in the Summer Olympics. Why such different results?
Australia was 6th in Total Medals won in both the Summer Olympics and the Paralympics.
Tokyo Paralympics Medal Table, top 15 countries by Total Medals won
Paralympics
24 August – 5 Sept 2021; Summer Olympics 23 July – 8 August 2021
Country |
2021 Paralympics Ranking by Total Medals won |
2021
Summer Olympics Total Medals won and ranking by Total Medals won |
|
|
|
1. China |
207 |
88 (2nd) |
2. Great Britain |
124 |
65 (4th) |
3. RPC Russia |
118 |
71 (3rd) |
4. USA |
104 |
113 (1st) |
5. Ukraine |
98 |
19 (16th) |
6. Australia |
80 |
46 (6th) |
7. Brazil |
72 |
21 (12th) |
8. Italy |
69 |
40 (7th) |
9. Netherlands |
59 |
36 (9th) |
10. France |
54 |
33 (10th) |
11. Japan |
51 |
58 (5th) |
12. Germany |
43 |
37 (8th) |
13. Spain |
36 |
17 (17th) |
14. Poland |
25 |
14 (18th) |
15. Iran |
24 |
20 |
...
News which caught my eye in September 2021.
Region / Country
|
News item
|
Global |
No USA / NATO troops in
Afghanistan for the first time in 20 years; the Taliban is back in control
again. Ronaldo scored twice in Portugal’s
win over Ireland in World Cup qualifiers; Ronaldo now top scorer in
international games (111 goals in 180 games; in comparison Messi has scored
76 goals in 151 games for Argentina). China’s cap on steel production
has reduced the price of iron ore by 40% from its high of $237/t in May 2021. Tokyo Paralympics closing ceremony
on 5 September. Military coup in Guinea rocked the
bauxite/aluminum industry. USA Climate Envoy, John Kerry, met
with Chinese counterparts to prepare for the Glasgow Climate Change Summit;
inconclusive meetings. Six Australian universities made
the Top 100 in the Times Higher Education rankings: Melbourne (#33); ANU and
U. Queensland (#54); Monash (#57); Sydney (#58); UNSW (#70). US Tennis Open: Women’s Singles
won by 18 year old Emma Radacanu (Britain) over 19 year old Layla Fernandes
(Canada). Men’s Singles won by Daniil Medvedev (Russia) over Novak Djokovic
(Serbia). Wheelchair tennis at US Open:
Women’s Singles won by Diede de Groot (Netherlands) and Men’s Singles won by
Dylan Alcott (Australia). Both Diede and Dylan achieved Golden Slams this
year in winning all 4 Majors plus Gold at Tokyo Paralympics. What incredible
champions! Aussie Daniel Ricciardo (McLaren)
won the Italian Formula 1 Grand Prix (his first F1 win in 4 years). New strategic partnership between
USA, UK and Australia (AUKUS). On 17 Sept China applied to join
the Comprehensive Agreement for Trans Pacific Partnership, which currently
has 11 founding members. UK and Taiwan also indicated interest in joining. UN’s 76th General
Assembly meeting in New York City. The USA dropped the extradition request on Huawei executive Meng Wan Zhou, so Canada released her and she flew back to China. In response China released two Canadians who were in custody, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor.
|
USA |
President Biden suggested
businesses with more than 100 employees should make vaccination mandatory or
weekly tests. Several large companies (eg
Amazon, Walmart, Target) have introduced schemes to subsidise college fees for
employees. The Dept of Justice has filed a
civil suit challenging Texas’ law limiting abortions. The prominent statue of Robert E
Lee in Richmond has been removed. Many ceremonies to mark the 20th
anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Elon Musk’s SpaceX rocket took
four civilians to space for 3 days, the first commercial tourism space flight
(returned safely on 19/9). From November the USA will welcome
fully vaccinated visitors from selected countries (such as UK, EU). Preview of new book “Peril”
by Woodward & Costa of Washington Post causing waves (eg the US military
feared a possible coup attempt by President Trump). President Biden having difficulty getting his big Infrastructure and Social Serivces bills through Congress. The Republicans are also playing "silly buggers" by refusing to increase America's Debt Limit.
|
China |
Govt restricted the time when
youths aged under 18 years can play online computer games: limited to one
hour on Friday night, Saturday night and Sunday night (total 3 hours a
weekend); similarly children restricted to 40 minutes per day on Douyin
(China’s TikTok). China’s biggest real estate
company, Evergrande, shaky with debts of around $300 Billion. On 19 Sept three Chinese
astronauts returned safely after spending 90 days on the Tianhe Space
Station, 380 km above earth. A new purpose-built Covid quarantine facility called the Guangzhou International Health Station with 5,000 rooms has been built on the outskirts of Guangzhou; cost $260 million and took just 3 months to build; international arrivals will have quarantine there for 21 days. A similar facilitiy is planned for Shenzhen. 71% of China's population of 1.4 billion has been fully vaccinated with 2 doses. China's Central Bank declared the use of crypto (digital) currencies illegal.
|
Australia |
The Federal and State Governments
have decided zero Covid is no longer feasible given the infectious nature of
the Delta variant; forward planning suggests that lockdowns will finish in
early November when 80% of the adult population is fully vaccinated. GDP change in June Quarter (Q2
2021) was +0.7%. Expectation is that with NSW and Victoria lock-downs, the
September Quarter will show negative growth. The restrictions on international
travel in and out of Australia were extended by 3 months, to 17 December
2021. The NZ All Blacks beat the
Wallabies (3 – 0) to retain the Bledisloe Cup for the 19th year.
Wallabies beat the South African Springboks twice. Govt hosted a “Women’s Safety
Summit”. Govt announced plans to build 8
nuclear-powered submarines with US and UK technology (the current A$90B
contract to acquire 12 French conventional submarines has been cancelled). Christian Porter, Minister for
Industry, resigned rather then disclose the members of a ‘blind trust’ which
donated funds to pay his legal costs. The Melbourne Demons 140 beat the Western Bulldogs 66 to win the AFL championship; first 'flag' for Melbourne in 57 years.
|
France |
The maximum speed limit in Paris
was reduced to 30 km per hour.
|
Russia |
General election: Putin’s United
Russia Party won 50% of the vote; second was the Communist Party with 19%.
Opposition leader Navalny was blocked from participating.
|
Canada |
General election: Justin Trudeau’s
Liberal Party was returned with 158 seats, second was the Progressive
Conservative Party with 122 seats. The Liberals will form another minority
Govt after failing to reach 170 seats (required for a majority in the House
of Commons 338 seats).
|
Germany |
General election: held on 26/9.
Swing to SPD (left), while Merkel’s party, the CDU, lost ground. See more
analysis below. In December 2018 Angela Merkel announced that she will retire
after the 2021 election; she has been the leader of Germany for an astounding
16 years, and still has widespread support; an amazing lady. Germany, and
Europe, will miss her steady, sensible guiding hand.
|
...
German general election held on 26 September
2021.
Provisional
results as reported by Wikipedia, accessed 27 Sept 2021
The 20th
Federal Parliament (Bundestag) has 735 seats (368 for a majority).
The
incumbent Chancellor, Angela Merkel, leader of the CDU announced in 2018 that
she would retire after the 2021 election. She has been Chancellor for 16 years; will stay in office until a new Coalition is agreed (could take weeks or even months).
Party (and leader) |
No.
of votes (million)
|
% of
vote |
Total
seats (and change from 2017) |
Social Democratic Party SPD (Olof Scholz)
|
12.0m |
25.7% |
206 (+53) |
CDU/CSU (Armin Laschet)
|
11.2m |
24.1% |
196 (-50) |
Grune (Annalena Baerbock)
|
6.9m |
14.8% |
118 (+51) |
FDP (Christian Lindner)
|
5.3m |
11.5% |
92 (+12) |
AfD (Alice Weidel)
|
4.8m |
10.4% |
83 (-11) |
Linke (Janine Wissler)
|
2.3m |
4.9% |
39 (-30) |
Others
|
|
8.7% |
1 |
For the
2021 general election there were 61.2 million registered voters, of which 76.6%
voted (turn-out rate).
The German
electoral system is different and, for outsiders, complicated: each person casts two votes, one for their
Constituency and the other for their Party List.
It is rare for one Party to win a majority of seats, so Coalitions are the norm; often “Grand Coalitions”, comprising the main Parties (CDU/CSU and SPD), form Government.
That would never happen in Australia or UK or USA or Canada, except perhaps in wartime; can you imagine the Conservatives & Labour or Democrats & Republicans being in Coalition?
Why are our politics so adversarial? This is especially noticeable in Washington DC at the moment, with Republicans opposing anything proposed by Biden/Democrats?
Why is it so difficult to agree on what is in the national interest? For example, surely Biden's plan to upgrade America's aging infrastructure makes sense and is in the national interest? In Australia why can't the Coalition agree on carbon emission targets for 2050, which the whole world is pursuing?
What is it about Germany that makes political opponents able to work together?
...
Germany’s 10 biggest trading partners (exports +
imports) in 2020 (euros):
1. China |
213 billion |
6. Italy |
114 billion |
2. The Netherlands |
172 billion |
7. Switzerland |
102 billion |
3. USA |
172 billion |
8. UK |
102 billion |
4. France |
148 billion |
9. Austria |
100 billion |
5. Poland |
123 billion |
10. Czech Rep. |
83 billion |
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt, reported by the BBC
on 14 September 2021.
...
Canadian general election
Although
the current Government still had 2 years to run, on 15 August 2021 the Governor
General of Canada granted Prime Minister Justin Trudeau his request to hold a
general election on 20 September.
The result
of the election was similar to 2019: the Liberal Party won 159 seats (+2), the
Conservatives 119 (-2), Bloc Quebecois 33, New Democrat Party 25, and Green
Party 2. The Liberals will again form a minority Govt as they fell short of the
170 seats required for a majority in the House of Commons.
The
Conservatives again got more of the popular vote (34%) than the Liberals (33%).
The ten top
issues identified as concerning voters were:
Issue |
%
concerned |
Change
over 2019 |
1. Cost of living |
62% |
+7% |
2. Healthcare |
47% |
+5% |
3. Climate change |
46% |
+6% |
4. Covid recovery |
42% |
- |
5. Economic future |
41% |
+8% |
6. Taxes |
39% |
+1% |
7. Poverty & inequality |
36% |
+8% |
8. Housing |
33% |
+8% |
9. Govt spending / deficit |
31% |
+4% |
10. Cost of medicines |
26% |
+1% |
...
Height changes in The Netherlands, the world’s
tallest nation.
On 19
September 2021 CNN reported that, according to Statistics Netherlands, the height
of Dutch citizens (the world’s tallest) may have peaked: men born in 2001 are,
on average, 1cm shorter than men born in 1980; women are 1.4cm shorter.
Men born in
1980 had an average height of 183.9cm, which was 8.3cm taller than for men born
in 1930. Women born in 1980 averaged 170.7cm, 5.3cm taller than women born in
1930.
...
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
My 30 year career as an Australian Trade Commissioner gave me an interest in matters related to international trade. I subscribe to Bloomberg's excellent daily newsletter "Supply Lines - tracking Covid-19's impact on trade" (former title 'Trade Matters').
According to UNCTAD, World GDP contracted by (-) 3.5% in 2020, and will increase by +5.3% in 2021 and around +3% in 2022. |
...
USA and China: key indicators
To see how the two superpowers compared on key indicators I compiled statistics sourced from the CIA World Factbook https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/ accessed on 20 August 2021.
In last month's Post I included Geography & People. Today's table covers Economy and Trade.
In future posts I will include further Tables comparing the USA and China on other key indicators.
Note: All dollars are US$; est. = estimate (I am puzzled why the CIA still shows some older statistics as "estimates"?).
Economy: USA & China Compared
Source:
CIA World Factbook accessed 20 August 2021
|
USA |
China |
ECONOMY |
|
|
Direct involvement in economy |
Insignificant |
Significant via SOEs (35%?);
decreasing?
|
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (2019 est.) ‘Official exchange rate’ basis (also called ‘Nominal’ basis)
|
$21.4 Trillion
|
$14.3 Trillion
|
Real GDP on Purchasing Power
Parity (PPP) basis · Real GDP / PPP per capita (2010 dollars) · World ranking (see Table below for top 10 economies on PPP basis)
|
$20.5 Trillion $62,530 15th of 228 countries |
$22.5 Trillion
$16,117 106th of 228 countries |
GDP growth rate (2019 est.)
|
2.16% |
6.14% |
GDP composition (2017 est.) ·
Agriculture ·
Industry ·
Services
|
0.9% 19.1% 80.0% |
7.9% 40.5% 51.6% |
Inflation rate (2019 est.) (increase in Consumer Price Index)
|
1.8% |
2.8% |
Total population (July 2021 est.) |
335 million |
1,384 million
|
Labour force (2019 est.) Australia/China ·
Agriculture ·
Industry ·
Services |
Australia 12.6 m 3.6% 21.1% 75.3% |
775 million 27.7% 28.8% 43.5%
|
Unemployment rate (2018 est.) |
3.89% |
3.84% (urban)
|
|
|
|
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
|
|
|
Exports (USA 2019 est, China 2018) Major export markets |
$2.38 Trillion Canada 17%, Mexico 16%, China 7%. |
$2.49 Trillion USA 17%, HK 10%, Japan 6%.
|
Imports (USA 2019 est, China 2018) Major import sources |
$3.21 Trillion China 18%, Mex 15%, Canada 13%,
Japan 6%, Germany 5%.
|
2.14 Trillion S Korea 9%, Japan 8%, Australia
7%, Germany 7%, USA 7%.
|
Reserves of foreign exchange and
gold (as at 31 December 2017 est.)
|
$123 Billion |
$3,236 Billion |
According to the World Bank, a better measure of GDP is based on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) which takes into account different internal cost structures. For example, a Dollar buys more in China than in the USA, and the PPP takes the different purchasing power into account.
On the PPP basis, China's GDP (Economy) is larger than that of the USA (see table below).
Top 10 economies on GDP/PPP basis, 2019
estimates, rounded
Source: CIA
World Factbook (from World Bank), accessed 20 August 2021.
Country |
GDP
on PPP basis US$
Trillion, rounded to one decimal place
|
1. China
|
22.5 |
2. USA
|
20.5 |
3. India
|
9.2 |
4. Japan
|
5.2 |
5. Germany
|
4.5 |
6. Russia
|
4.0 |
7. Indonesia
|
3.2 |
8. United Kingdom
|
3.1 |
9. France
|
3.1 |
10. Brazil
|
3.1 |
|
|
19. Australia
|
1.3 |
Covid 19 PANDEMIC
The Covid pandemic seems to be slowing: Global cases of Covid 19 increased by 20 million in August and by 16 million in September, while Global deaths increased by 0.6 million in August and 0.3 million in September.
During September the number of cumulative deaths in the USA passed the 675,000 total recorded in the 1918-19 Spanish Flu pandemic. President Biden keeps urging Americans to get vaccinated (less likely to get very sick or die) and he has now permitted booster shots to give added protection.
Covid-19 Pandemic top 15 countries by cumulative
cases, as at 30 September 2021.
Source: www.worldometers.info/coronavirus
(accessed 30 September 2021)
Country |
Cumulative
Cases 31 July 2021 (millions) |
Cumulative
deaths 31
July 2021 (thousands) |
Cumulative
Cases 30 Sept 2021 (millions) |
Cumulative
deaths 30
Sept 2021 (thousands) |
Global |
198M |
4.2M |
234M |
4.8M |
1. USA |
35.7 |
629 |
44.2 |
714 |
2. India |
31.6 |
424 |
33.8 |
448 |
3. Brazil |
19.9 |
556 |
21.4 |
596 |
4. UK |
5.8 |
130 |
7.8 |
137 |
5. Russia |
6.2 |
121 |
7.5 |
206 |
6. Turkey |
5.7 |
47 |
7.1 |
64 |
7. France |
6.1 |
112 |
7.0 |
117 |
8. Iran |
3.9 |
90 |
5.6 |
120 |
9. Argentina |
4.9 |
106 |
5.3 |
115 |
10. Spain |
4.5 |
82 |
5.0 |
86 |
11. Colombia |
4.8 |
120 |
5.0 |
126 |
12. Italy |
4.3 |
128 |
4.7 |
131 |
13. Germany |
3.8 |
92 |
4.2 |
94 |
14. Indonesia |
3.4 |
92 |
4.2 |
142 |
15. Mexico |
|
|
3.7 |
276 |
|
|
|
|
|
109. Australia |
|
|
103K |
1.3K |
In Australia the Federal and State Governments seem to have decided that "zero Covid" is no longer feasible given the infectious nature of the Delta variant; forward planning suggests that lockdowns will finish in early November when 80% of the adult population is fully vaccinated.
The current outbreak started in Sydney (NSW) in June. NSW went into lockdown followed by Victoria and the ACT as Covid spread.
The number of new daily cases peaked in NSW at 1,599 in mid-September and have lately been under 1,000 per day. But the trend is the opposite in Victoria which in the last 3 days has recorded 867, 950, and 1,438 new cases (possibly due to the anti-vaccination demonstrations in Melbourne a week ago?).
The ACT/Canberra recorded 22 new cases yesterday. Lockdown is due to end here on 15 October (some restrictions easing now). It's great to be playing golf again!
Queensland has done very well to date, but recorded 6 new cases yesterday. 65% of adult Queenslanders have had one dose and 46% have had two doses of vaccine.
...
That's it for another month.
Just wanted to mention the Melbourne Demon's amazing comeback in Q3 against the Western Bulldogs in the AFL Grand Final last weekend. The scores at the end of each quarter were: Q1 Demons 4.5 (29) Bulldogs 1.2 (8); Q2 5.9 (39) to 7.5 (47); Q3 12.11 (83) to 9.5 (59); Q4 21.14 (140) to 10.6 (66).
Our grandson, Nate Roberts, played halfback for the Under 14s Brisbane Blue team in the Queensland Schoolboys Rugby Union Championship held in Toowoomba last week; they came a creditable 3rd. Well done, Nate!
Best wishes, stay healthy and keep smiling.
Vera & Alex Olah
Canberra, Australia
Thursday 30 September 2021.
No comments:
Post a Comment