Gentlefolk,
This post describes some of our activities during October 2021.
The contents of this post are in the following sequence:
Photos of our activities during October 2021
Books read.
Some news items which caught my eye in October 2021.
TV Series watched.
Zoom sessions.
International Trade.
USA & China comparative indicators.
Covid-19 Pandemic.
Introduction:
Canberra went into a Covid-induced lockdown on 12 August; the number of daily new Covid cases stabilised between 20 - 40; some restrictions were eased early October which included golfing, so I played 3 or 4 times a week - great fun.
I bought my current set of golf clubs back in 2001 when I retired from the Public Service and started playing golf. So I indulged myself - an early Xmas present - by buying a set of Callaway Golf Clubs and bag. Unfortunately my golf has not improved significantly (another mystery of golf: playing frequently doesn't necessarily result in better scores!). Anyway, it's nice to play with new clubs and I will keep trying.
Canberra has passed 92% fully vaccinated (for over 12 year olds). Remaining restrictions will be lifted on 1 November (tomorrow), at least for people who have been double-vaxxed. Restaurants, clubs, theatres etc will be fully operational again. Australians will be able to travel overseas without special permits, and without having to quarantine on return.
The original lockdowns started on 16 March 2020 (the day we returned from a tour of India). Coping with Covid has been a long, long, long process, but life is now slowly returning to normal.
Herewith photos of some of our activities in October 2021.
We visited the scaled-down version of Floriade in Commonweath Park with Maria Helena and paul Nicoll. |
The following weekend we had a picnic by the Lake with Aniko and Peter Carey and then inspected Floriade again - many of the flowers had peaked already. |
Funeral Notice of former Trade Commissioner Richard (Dick) Wilson. |
Utilising Zoom I tutored a group of Indonesian students to improve their spoken English. At the end of the course they sent me a hamper of "goodies" - much appreciated! |
Me in my cycling gear. I enjoyed being back on the bike, but after a few rides I started to suffer pain in both knees and had to back off. Perhaps I started too strongly? Will ease into it now. |
I often see this mob of kangaroos near the Jerrabomberra Wetlands when I ride or walk there. |
The happy couple 48 years ago in Jakarta, Indonesia. Don't we look young! Where have the years gone - time seems to have passed in the blink of an eye! |
353 poles, one each for those who drowned when the SIEV X boat sank on 19 October 2001. The poles were sponsored by schools, churches and community groups around Australia. |
Weston Park contains as Frisbee Course - this is the start of the 7th "hole", a Par 3, 85 metres to the 'flag'. |
Oil prices continue to rise - diesel was A$1.36 a litre at the end of June, now $1.56. |
BOOKS
...
News items which caught my eye in October 2021.
World & miscellaneous
|
Investigative journalists released
analyses of the “Pandora Papers” which showed how the wealthy transfer and
hide their money; pressure for Ongoing debates in the USA,
Australia and other countries about Covid responses: lock-downs, mask
wearing, mandatory vaccinations. Successful trails of an
anti-malaria vaccine; Africa first target of WHO. Poland’s High Court ruled that
certain EU laws cannot supersede local laws – EU Supreme Court imposed a fine
of Euros 1 million per day. New Zealand changed from ‘elimination’
to a ‘manage Covid’ strategy. Austrian Chancellor, Sebastian
Kurz, stepped down during corruption investigation. Former French President Nicolas
Sarkozy sentenced to a year in prison for illegal campaigning. New Japanese Prime Minister, Fumio
Kishida, sworn in, election soon. Natural gas prices in Europe have
risen sharply to $55+ per mill BTU. IMF report on World Economy: GDP
minus 3.1% in 2020; estimated +5.9% in 2021 and +4.9% in 2022. Major issues:
Covid-Delta; strained supply chains; inflation; rising prices of food and
fuel. Forecast for Australia: +3.5% in 2021; +4.1% in 2022; +2.6% in 2023. Two Shia mosques bombed by ISIS in
Afghanistan; many dead, injured. Barbados became a Republic, Sandra Mason replaced Queen Elizabeth 2 as Head of State. Retiring German Chancellor Angela
Merkel attended her 107th meeting of the European Council. Turkey threatened to expel 10
Ambassadors who signed critical letter. Strong French reaction to UK
decision to issue limited licenses to fishing boats; stand-off. Estimated number of Nuclear
warheads: USA 3,750; Russia 1,500; China 300. USA and China both pursuing
hypersonic missile capability. G20 meeting in Rome - agreed on a minimum corporate tax rate of 15%, and that Multinationals should pay tax in the countries where they operate. 190 countries will be represented at COP26 Climate Change Summit in Glasgow 31 October - 11 November.
|
USA
|
Congress passed a Bill to
raise the debt limit and keep the Govt funded, but only for 2 months until 3
December 2021. Biden negotiations with two
Democratic Senators (Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Simena) reduced his Social
Services proposals by half to $1.75T. Tom Brady led Tampa Bay Buccaneers
to victory over the New England patriots 19-17, and passed Drew Brees’ record
of 80,359 passing yards. Covid booster vaccination program
started, 7+ million already. Nuclear powered submarine “USS
Connecticut” hit an under-sea object in the South China Sea; repairs
undertaken in Guam. Oil price passed $80/barrel;
average pump price $3.27 per gallon. Facebook whistleblower, Frances Haugen,
gave evidence to Senate C’tee. US CPI rose 5.4% in September;
inflationary pressures building. Many reports of supply problems. Port
of Los Angeles (and other ports), to operate 24/7 to faster process ships.
Apple announced that production of iPhone 13 will fall short by 10 million
units due to chip shortages. 90 year old William Shatner (Star
Trek’s Captain Kirk) participated in a 10 minute flight in space. Fully vaccinated citizens of 33
countries can visit the USA from 8 Nov. FDA evaluating anti-Covid pill
(Molnupiravir) developed by Merck. Colin Powell died aged 84 from
Covid complications. He was the first African-American Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
and former Secretary of State. Chicago Mayor wants to mandate
vaccines for all City employees, but strong opposition including from the Police
Union. Q3 2021 revenue reports: Netflix
$7.5B; Tesla $13.8B; Facebook $12B. Bitcoin reached $67,000 following
launch of ETF, then fell. Tesla joined the Trillion Dollar Club
when its shares passed $1,000 (Apple is worth $2.5T; Microsoft $2.3T;
Alphabet $1.8T; Amazon $1.7T). Actor Alec Baldwin accidentally
shot ‘Rust’ staff with a prop gun. Facebook changed corporate name to
Meta (will include FB, Instagram, WhatsApp, Messenger, Qued, Horizon).
|
Australia
|
PM Scott Morrison announced that
international flights will resume in November for fully-vaccinated, with no
quarantine on return. NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian
resigned when the ICAC revealed that it was investigating “possible breaches
of public trust”. New leader of the Liberal Party and Premier Dominic
Perrottet. The Penrith Panthers beat the
South Sydney Rabbitohs 14-12 to win the Rugby League championship. After being thrashed by the All
Blacks, the Wallabies won four matches in a row: 2 against the Springboks,
and 2 against the Pumas. Property market has been ‘hot’ –
estimated average increase of 20% this year across Australia (28% in
Canberra). The French Ambassador returned to
Canberra following the spat over the cancelled submarine deal. Newscorp (Murdoch) media reversed previous anti-Climate Change line; Newscorp mandated vaccines for all staff and visitors from 1 January. Report by Treasury on first 6
months of JobKeeper program (Apr – Sept 2020) found 39% ($29 billion) went
to ineligible companies. The three largest supermarkets,
Woolworths, Coles and ALDI, introduced mandatory vaccination for staff. With more than 70% fully
vaccinated, Covid lockdowns ended in NSW (daily new cases under 300),
Victoria (daily new cases about 2,000), and ACT (daily new cases around 15). Approvals by the FIRB for
foreigners wanting to buy residential property fell from 40,141 in 2015/6 to
7,056 in 2020/1. Australia to introduce a register which shows the ultimate
“Beneficial Owner” of properties and transactions. The Liberals and Nationals finally
reached agreement on a Net Zero target for emissions by 2050; PM Scott
Morrison will lead the Australian delegation to the COP26 summit in Glasgow
in November.
|
China
|
Severe flooding in China has
disrupted coal production; power shortages. GDP growth in Q3 2021 (July –
Sept) 4.9% (down from 8% in Q2). Taiwan complained Chinese jet incursion
into its Air Defence Identification Zone (but the ADIZ is not a recognized
legal boundary). Former PM Tony Abbott attended a
regional security conference in Taiwan (he was virtually the only foreigner
there); anti-China speech. China Telecom was banned from
operating in the USA. Evergrande, one of China’s biggest
property developers (2019 revenue $69B) with debts of $300 billion has
liquidity problem and is facing bankruptcy.
|
UK |
Travel “red list” cut from 54 to
just 7 countries. About 50,000 new cases of Covid
per day, more than combined total of France, Germany, Italy and Spain. 223
deaths per day. Soccer club Newcastle United taken
over by Saudi company. Shortage of truck drivers
impacting on fuel supplies; long queues. MP Sir David Amess killed in
terrorist attack.
|
...
TV series watched in October 2021.
Ku’Damm German SBS |
Set in (West) Berlin in the late 1950s and early 1960s. A woman and her three daughters: Helena, Eva, and Monika. Conflicted relationships: partners Freddi the Jewish musician, Joachim the spoilt rich guy, The Doctor, The Gay. Dance school. Rock & Roll. East v West, The Berlin Wall. A very good series, highly recommended. |
Thin Blue Line Sweden SBS
|
Swedish police drama. Great
writing and acting – in fact, we thought for the first couple of episodes
that it might be a reality show it seemed so ‘real’: policing is a thankless
job, fortunately some people want to do it. The series describes the professional
and personal lives of a police unit, the four main characters being: Magnus,
Sara, Leah, and Jesse. Recommended viewing.
|
Backstrom Sweden SBS |
Swedish police drama. Inspector
Evert Backstrom, assisted by young 12 year old Edvin, investigate when a
skull with a bullet hole is found. They determine that the skull was from a
woman called Jaidee, wife of Daniel Jonsson; Jaidee and Daniel concocted an
insurance scam. Later, when Jaidee wanted out, Daniel killed her.
|
The Eagle Denmark SBS |
Danish police drama. It follows super
sleuth (‘The Eagle’) Hallgrim Hallgrimsson and his team as they track stolen enriched
uranium; gambling / money laundering/ human trafficking etc.
|
...
Zoom sessions in October.
30 Sept AIIA |
“Significance of AUKUS
(Australia/UK/USA) security alliance”. Dr Benjamin Zala, Dr Van Jackson,
Prof Nick Bisley, Dr Maria Rost Rublee. This is the White Man’s Club coming
to protect Asia from big bad China. Does the decision to go for
nuclear-powered submarines tie us too closely to the USA, diminish our
sovereignty? Does it make Australia safer or more of a target?
|
5 October AIIA |
“Australia and Climate
Change” presented by Associate Professor Matt McDonald (University of
Queensland).
|
7 October AIIA |
“Why did the Afghan Army
evaporate?” presented by Richard Iron and Tim Willasay-Wilsey. The
Allies (mainly Americans) spent at least $83 billion on building up the Afghan
army and police – why didn’t they put up resistance to the Taliban, why did
they just ‘evaporate’? Basically the rot set in when President Trump excluded
the Afghan Govt from ‘peace negotiations’ with the Taliban which resulted in
the 2020 Doha Agreement. Trump was determined to leave and agreed to all the
Taliban’s demands. Afghan soldiers saw the “writing on the wall” and as the
exit date approached they just returned to their villages.
|
7 October 19 US Studies Centre, Uni of Sydney |
“The future of US politics”.
Bruce Wolpe interviewed Sarah Binder and Thomas Mann from the Brookings
Institute, Washington DC. Biden wants to focus on “the 4
Cs”: Climate Change; Cyber; Covid; and China. Biden’s approval ratings are
down. He was looking good on Covid, but then the Delta variant came and
progress has stalled. Also, the exit from Afghanistan was a mess. Democratic
in-fighting on Biden’s Infrastructure and Social initiatives. Trump dominates
the Republican Party, still undermining trust in elections, and is determined
to fight anything Biden puts up; polarization grows and bi-partisanship is a
thing of the past.
|
10 October Lowy Institute |
Richard McGregor interviewed Linda
Jaivin about her book “The Shortest History of China”. China’s long history pervades
Chinese character and society even
today. Three themes: Corruption – when Dynasties/Regimes became
corrupt revolution and change followed (hence Xi Jinping’s strong
anti-corruption stance); Unity – vital to avoid conflict and chaos;
Succession – always a contest (Deng introduced the 2 term limit, but Xi has
changed that now).
|
18 October ABC 4 Corners
|
A documentary on the life
and times of Angela Merkel who has been Chancellor of Germany for 16
years. What a remarkable woman.
|
26 October AIIA
|
“The AUKUS Deal”
with Dr Sidharth Kaushal. Who does AUKUS (Australia, UK and
USA strategic partnership) benefit, and why? Does the UK really have an
interest in the Indo-Pacific or are they just hoping for financial spin-off
when Australia gets the nuclear powered submarines?
|
...
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
My 30 year career as an Australian Trade Commissioner gave me an interest in matters related to international trade. I subscribe to Bloomberg's excellent daily newsletter "Supply Lines - tracking Covid-19's impact on trade" (former title 'Trade Matters').
This graph shows that the deficit in US merchandise trade (ie goods only, not including services) is estimated at $96.3B in September 2021, a new record (it was $88.2B in August). |
...
USA and China: key indicators
To see how the two superpowers compared on key indicators I compiled statistics sourced from the CIA World Factbook https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/ accessed on 20 August 2021.
Today's Post (October 2021) shows key indicators for Agriculture & Water and Transportation. (In the August Post I included Geography & People, and the September Post included Economy and Trade).
Note: All dollars are US$; est. = estimate (I am puzzled why the CIA still shows some older statistics as "estimates"? and also why they show 2012 statistics for some categories such as Irrigated Land, Pipelines, and Waterways - surely the CIA must have more recent figures???).
While the USA has more infrastructure than Cnhina, much of it is old; while much of China's infrastructure is relatively new.
AGRICULTURE & WATER
|
USA |
China |
Land use (2018 est.) Agricultural land, total, of
which: ·
Arable land (for growing crops) ·
Permanent crops (eg fruit trees, tea) ·
Permanent pasture (grass for animals) Forest Other (buildings, roads, railways,
wasteland)
|
44.5% ·
16.8% ·
0.3% ·
27.4% 33.3% 22.2% |
54.7% ·
11.3% ·
1.6% ·
41.8% 22.3% 23.0% |
Irrigated land (2012 est.)
|
264,000 sq km |
690,070 sq km |
Renewable water resources (2017
est.)
|
3,069 cubic km |
2,840 cubic km |
Total water withdrawal, annual
(2017 est.) Of which: Municipal / Industry /
Agriculture
|
444 cubic km 13% / 47% / 40% |
554 cubic km 13% / 22% / 65% |
|
|
|
TRANSPORTATION
|
USA |
China |
Roads, total, (2012) of which ·
Paved ·
Unpaved |
6.6 million km. ·
4.3 m km ·
2.3 m km
|
5.0 million km ·
4.4 m km ·
0.6 m km |
Railways (2018)
|
293,792 km |
102,000 km 29,000 high speed
|
Airports, total (2013) of which: ·
Paved runways ·
Unpaved runways |
13,513 ·
5,054 ·
8,459 |
533 ·
510 ·
23
|
Heliports (2013 / 2019)
|
5,287 |
39 |
Pipelines (2012) |
2 m km natural gas 240,711 km petroleum |
76,000 km gas 331,700 km petroleum
|
Merchant marine (2020 est.)
|
3,652 vessels |
6,197 vessels |
Waterways (2012) |
41,009 km, of which 19,312 km used
for commerce.
|
110,000 km navigable. |
...
Covid-19 Pandemic
The spread of Covid pandemic continues to slow: in round figures Global Cases of Covid 19 increased by 20 million in August, by 16 million in September and by 13 million in October, while Global Deaths increased by 0.6 million in August, 0.3 million in September, and 0.2 million in October.
Covid-19 Pandemic top 15 countries by cumulative
cases, as at 31 October 2021.
Source: www.worldometers.info/coronavirus
(accessed 31 October 2021)
Country |
Cumulative
Cases 31
July 2021 (millions) |
Cumulative
deaths 31
July 2021 (thousands) |
Cumulative
Cases 31
Oct 2021 (millions) |
Cumulative
deaths 31
Oct 2021 (thousands) |
Global |
198M |
4.2M |
247M |
5.0M |
1. USA |
35.7 |
629 |
46.8 |
766 |
2. India |
31.6 |
424 |
34.3 |
458 |
3. Brazil |
19.9 |
556 |
21.8 |
608 |
4. UK |
5.8 |
130 |
9.0 |
141 |
5. Russia |
6.2 |
121 |
8.5 |
237 |
6. Turkey |
5.7 |
47 |
8.0 |
70 |
7. France |
6.1 |
112 |
7.2 |
118 |
8. Iran |
3.9 |
90 |
5.9 |
126 |
9. Argentina |
4.9 |
106 |
5.3 |
116 |
10. Spain |
4.5 |
82 |
5.0 |
87 |
11. Colombia |
4.8 |
120 |
5.0 |
127 |
12. Italy |
4.3 |
128 |
4.8 |
132 |
13. Germany |
3.8 |
92 |
4.6 |
96 |
14. Indonesia |
3.4 |
92 |
4.2 |
143 |
15. Mexico |
|
|
3.8 |
288 |
|
|
|
|
|
99. Australia |
|
|
169K |
1.7K |
With fully-vaccinated rates passing 80% (of 16 years and over) Australia's worst-affected States, NSW and Victoria, are opening up. Yesterday there were 236 new cases in NSW and 1,355 in Victoria, but everyone is tired of lock-downs and we will just have to live with a small number of Covid cases in the community. The high vaccination rates mean that severe illness will be limited and the hospital system should be able to cope with the expected small numbers.
ACT/Canberra has done well, with fully vaccinated rate of 93% (for 12+). The number of new cases has been in single figures for the last 3 days. There are presently 231 active Covid cases in Canberra, 9 of which are in hospital (5 of them on ventilators).
Almost all restrictions have been eased and shops, restaurants, clubs, gyms, cinemas etc are now open again (although some limits on numbers still apply and masks are still required indoors).
From tomorrow (1 November) we can visit all parts of NSW, including Greater Sydney, without having to quarantine on return.
Vera & I are planning to visit Andrew & family in Sydney next weekend, and then go on to visit friends in Forster and Nambucca Heads. We are looking forward to our first trip out of Canberra in 3 months.
...
That's it for this Post.
All eyes on COP26 - the 26th UN-sponsored meeting on Climate Change - let's hope for concrete results.
The New Zealand All Blacks continue to dominate rugby union. Two weeks ago they beat the USA 104 - 14 (16 tries to 2) and last night beat Wales 54 - 16 (7 tries to one) in Wales. If only the Wallabies were as good ...
Old mate Hugo Hofgartner had his 80th birthday. A group of friends from Canberra were hoping to celebrate with him on the Gold Coast, but Covid restrictions got in the way. Hopefully we'll see you soon, Hugo, du alter bok!!!
Today is my sister Angie's birthday - our very best wishes for today and for the year ahead!!!
This morning Jen (10km run, 52 minutes), husband Tom (40km cycle, 75 minutes), and their friend John Tucker (1.5km swim, 30 minutes) participated as a team in the annual Noosa Triathalon (9,000 starters). Congrats on a great effort, guys!!
...
Best wishes, stay healthy and keep smiling.
Vera & Alex Olah
Canberra, Australia
Sunday 31 October 2021.
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