Gentlefolk,
This post describes some of our activities in April 2022.
The contents of this post are in the following sequence:
Photos of our activities during April 2022.
Books read, movies seen.
Lowy Institute on current Indonesian attitudes.
Some news items which caught my eye in April.
International Trade.
Covid pandemic.
Eulogy Dr Laszlo Trunko, RIP.
...
Overview of April:
The Russian invasion of Ukraine continued to dominate news. After strong Ukraine resistance (bolstered by huge support from Western countries), Russian military forces re-focus on Eastern and Southern Ukraine.
On 20 April John Hopkins University statistics showed that Covid-related deaths in the USA passed 1 million (on cumulative cases of 82m). One million deaths - beggars belief!
The Australian federal election will be held on 21 May; Labor's early lead in the polls seems to be eroding; all Parties campaigning hard.
Photos of our main activities during April 2022.
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| I watched the finish of the Canberra Marathon (also Half-Marathon, 10 km, and 5 Km runs). |
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| Impressed to see so many participants in the Canberra Marathon and other runs; good to see people having a go. I used to enjoy jogging (5 and 10 km Fun Runs), but sadly those days are over. |
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| With friends Simon, Chrissy, and delightful son Sean. |
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| A visit to Tuggeranong Schoolhouse Museum in the suburb of Chisholm. The original school was built in 1870 (the current structure dates from 1880). It was a one-teacher one-room school, with a 4 room teacher's residence attached. It served the local farming community. Finally closed in 1939. |
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| The Tuggeranong Schoolhouse Museum. |
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| Historian Elizabeth Burness is the custodian of the Museum. It houses her private collection of memorability. While I was there a lady visited whose grandfather had attended the school! |
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| We attended the funeral service of David Irvine. He joined the Department of Foreign Affairs in 1970 and had a distinguished career (Ambassador to China and High Commission to PNG, then Director General of ASIS and ASIO). We were colleagues at Australian Embassies in Beijing and Jakarta (David was in the Political Section, while I was in the Trade Section). A dedicated public servant of Australia. RIP David. |
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| David was the author of this impressive scholarly book (320 pages) on traditional Javanese Wayang (leather puppetry). David was Deputy Head of Mission in Jakarta, one of Australia's largest and busiest Embassies. I asked him how he had time to research and write this book during a very busy posting? He told me that he suffered from insomnia, and worked on this project during the early hours when he couldn't go back to sleep! |
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| David provided us with a copy of his book. He stayed with us in Singapore when he was finalising negotiations with the publisher. |
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| On Tuesday 12 April we watched the Matildas (Australia Womens Soccer Team) play New Zealand at Canberra Stadium. |
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| The Matildas taking a corner kick just in front of our seats. The first half was exciting, with the Matildas dominating and scoring 3 good goals. New Zealand scored a goal just before half-time to make it 3-1 at the break. There were no more goals in the second half. |
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| Our group at the soccer: Sasha and Davide and their kids Bonnie and Oscar (visiting from Sdyney), Aniko, Vera & me. 13,000 attended the game. |
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| We had two days at the National Folk Festival, Friday and Monday. We used to get season tickets, but thought we would ease back into it after all the Covid lockdowns. The NFF, while still fun, didn't have the crowd or buzz of former years - maybe the absence of international acts? But there were still lots of good Aussie acts. Our favourites included: Kate Ceberano, Mal Webb and his partner Kylie Morrigan, Chaika, the Spooky Mens Chorale, and the Shiny Bum Singers. One thing annoyed us: we ere charged booking fees on our tickets when we bought them at the gate on Friday morning, and not just one overall fee, but one ($5.80) for each of the four tickets. Is this the 'new normal'? |
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| The Opening Concert on Friday night featured 'Uncle' Archie Roach, a much-loved indigenous musician. His health is deteriorating and this was his last appearance in Canberra. |
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| Mal Webb and partner Kylie Morrigan were terrific, as always. |
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| Sydney based Chaika enthralled. |
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| The Shiny Bum Singers mercilessly parodied the Public Service. |
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| Johnny Huckle was a revelation; a self-taught Indigenous man from Junee he credited music for rescuing him from alcohol dependency. |
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| Dancers from New Guinea. |
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| Ukulele lovers jamming |
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| Small groups formed, jamming, good fun to just sit and listen. |
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| My brother's grandchildren (plus friends) enjoying Easer-egg hunt in Rarotonga. Kids the same the whole world over! |
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| I attended the ANZAC Day "Dawn Service" at the Kingston Foreshore. About 60 people gathered to watch the service (on TVs) being conducted at the Australian War Memorial. |
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| On 29 April we attended a classical music concert at the ANU Drill Hall (part of the annual Canberra International Music Festival). |
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| Violin and Merimba, an unusual combination. |
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The marimba is a percussion instrument consisting of a set
of wooden bars struck with yarn-wrapped or rubber mallets to produce musical
tones. Resonators or pipes are suspended underneath the bars to amplify the
sound of the wooden bars. |
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| We took the opportunity to view the exhibition of Indigenous paintings on bark, from Arnhem Land. |
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| Petrol prices at Costco (Canberra's cheapest) on 28 April 2022. Last month the Govt reduced the excise duty by 22 cents per litre (election time!) which has certainly helped. Wonder why the diesel price is relatively high - limited supply? |
Movies and Books
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| A crazy story about a plot to hold a famous painting (of the Duke of Wellington) hostage to get money to pay the Govt's BBC licence fee for pensioners. |
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| Jane Freebury gave this film 5 stars - most unusual - so of course we had to check it out. It didn't disappoint : good story (based on real events), great dialogue, and wonderful acting. British films at their best. |
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| George Ernest Morrison was a most unusual person, He was born in Geelong (near Melbourne) in 1862, and died in Sidmouth (England) in 1920 aged 58. At the age of 18 he walked from Melbourne to Adelaide (960km). The following year he paddled a canoe from Albury to the mouth of the Murray River (2,000 km). Then he walked from Normanton Qld to Melbourne (3,200km). In February 1894, aged 32, he travelled from Shanghai to Rangoon (4,800km) first by boat to Chongqing, then overland (walking and mule/pony). This book, published in London in 1895, describes his journey. He was unaccompanied, unarmed, and knew only a dozen words of Chinese. The trip took 100 days, and cost about 30 pounds sterling. Of all his adventures, surely this was the most crazy! But it proved to be a water-shed as Morrison spent the rest of his life associated with China. Check him out, he had an amazing life. |
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| This novel was written in 1992, and translated in 2005. Duanbai aged 14 becomes child-emperor when his father died. His eight year rule is characterised by immaturity, fear and cruelty; of concubines and eunuchs; and imperial rivalries. He is deposed and becomes a commoner; learns to tightrope-walk and forms a circus; finally finds peace as a Buddhist monk. The story is narrated in retrospect by the ex-Emperor. |
We went to two book launches at the ANU.
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| Joe Hockey was a leading light in the Liberal Party and was teh Member for North Sydney from 1996 to 2015. He was Abbott's Treasurer 2013 - 15. When he didn't win the leadership, he resigned. Was Australian Ambassador to the USA from January 2016 to January 2020. This book describes his time in Washington DC (which straddled the tumultuous Trump Presidency). |
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| Veteran journalist Paul Kelly did an excellent job interviewing Joe Hockey. Hockey is a jovial, larger-than-life character and entertaining raconteur. |
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| On 26 April we attended the book launch of Anita Heiss's new book "Am I black enough for you?" An interesting background, Anita grew up in Sydney, her mother was aboriginal (Wiradjuri) and her father was from Austria (hence the Germanic name). She was the first in her family to go to Univesity, and did a PhD. She is a passionate advocate for indigenous education and learning. She identifies closely with her Aboriginal heritage; the book is about her continual struggle to prove her aboriginality. |
Lowy
Institute Survey on Indonesian attitudes
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| On 5 April I attended the launch of the Lowy Institute's survey on Indonesian Attitudes. |
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| The panel for the launch of the Indonesian Survey, from left: Evan Laksmana; Ben Bland (main author); and Natasha Kassam. |
The Lowy Survey was based on a random Sample 3,000 interviews conducted across Indonesia in December 2021; the results were published in April 2022. This is a terribly small sample in a population of 260 million, but at least it gives some indication of how Indonesians are thinking. Surveys such as this are expensive (and difficult) to do, so it is good that Lowy is having a go.
Comparative results of the 2011 Survey are shown in brackets.
Australia doesn't rate well overall. We really ignore our nearest neighbour, and that is reciprocated as Indonesians focus on domestic matters.
Overview
General sense of optimism. High level of trust in Indonesian
President and military. Sceptical of both USA and China. Local issues dominate;
limited interest in international affairs. UN is regarded as the most important
international institution to Indonesia 43% (more than ASEAN 30%). Democracy is
valued = 80% turnout rate. Admire strong leaders, including authoritarian (eg Saudi
Prince Salman 57% and UAE Sheikh Zayed 52%).
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Indonesia
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USA |
China |
Australia |
Japan |
Singapore |
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Trust Govt
to act responsibly |
84% |
56% (-16) |
42%(-18) |
55% (-20) |
65% (-15) |
66% (-3) |
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Confidence
in current leadership |
74% |
44% |
34% |
38% |
45% |
44% |
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Positive
feelings towards |
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60% |
53% |
58% |
64% |
63% |
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Possible threat
to Indonesia |
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43% (-6) |
49% (+10) |
34% (+3) |
24% (+7) |
15% |
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News items which caught my eye during April 2022.
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Global
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Sri Lankan President Rajapaksa
proclaimed State of Emergency following widespread rioting due to economic
hardship. Viktor Orban’s Fidesz Party won
the Hungarian elections; 4th term. World Bank warned 3 major issues
for world economy: Russian/Ukraine conflict; rising US interest rates;
slowing Chinese economy and supply-chain
disruptions due to Covid lockdowns. Russia was expelled from UN Human
Rights Council: 93 for, 24 against, 58 abstentions. Emmanuel Macron beat Le Pen (58-42)
and was re-elected as PM of France (parliamentary elections will be held in
June). Extensive flooding in South
Africa, especially around Durban; 259 dead. UNHCR estimated asylum
applications in 2021: Germany 128K, France 97K, UK 44K. UK Govt announced that all illegal
boat arrivals will be processed in Rwanda, Riots/demos in Sweden following
burning of Koran by right-wing leader. Netflix reportedly lost 200K
subscribers in Q1 2022; first loss in 10 years. Pakistan PM Imran Khan lost a ‘no
confidence’ motion. New PM Shehbaz Sharif formed govt. Wimbledon announced ban on players
from Russia and Belorussia. World’s oldest person, Japanese
woman Kane Tanaka, died aged 119. Former German tennis champ Boris
Becker was found guilty of hiding assets in his bankruptcy case and got 2.5
years jail sentence.
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Russian invasion of Ukraine |
Several high-level visitors to
Kyiv in April: President of European Council Charles Michel; UK PM Boris
Johnson; US Secretaries Antony Blinken (State) and Lloyd Austin (Defence); UN Sec Gen Guterres. Ukrainian President Zelensky's charm offensive continued: he addressed the UN Security Council; also the Australian Parliament. Australia
agreed to provide 20 ‘Bushmaster’ troop carriers and 50 howitzers plus
ammunition. Germany has reversed policy and will provide 50 tanks. Russia/Ukraine Peace talks re-commenced in
Istanbul. Little progress. Russian military forces 'realign',
with focus on Donbas and South Ukraine; Ukrainian forces re-take areas around
Kyiv. Russian cruiser Moskva sunk in
Black Sea by Ukrainian missiles. Seeking a solutin, UN Secretary General Antonio
Guterres met with President Putin in Moscow and later with President Zelensky
in Kyiv. Russia insisting on getting
payment in roubles; has threatened to stop gas flows to Poland and Bulgaria
if they don’t conform. President Biden has asked Congress
for $33billion for Ukraine ($20B military aid, $8.5B economic aid, $3B humanitarian
aid).
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USA
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Workers at Amazon NYC voted to
unionise. Will Smith resigned from Film
Academy following violence at Oscars. Shooting in Sacramento CA: 6 dead,
12 wounded; NYC subway 23 wounded. Controversy over support for Trump’s
“stolen election” claims by Virginia (Ginni) Thomas, wife of Supreme Court
Justice Clarence Thomas. Elon Musk bought 10% of Twitter,
then made full take-over offer of $44B. Ketanji Jackson, first
African-American woman nominated to join US Supreme Court, approved by Senate
53-47. Consumer Prices (inflation) up
8.5% in 12 months to March; most since 1981. On 20 April USA passed 1 million
Covid-related deaths. A Federal Judge in Florida struck down Biden’s mask
mandate on airlines, trains, taxis, public transport. A judge in Manhattan found Trump
in contempt for not providing documents in investigation of his financial
dealings; imposed a fine of $10K per day. Q1 2022: Apple profit $35B; Twitter
profit $0.5B (on revenue of $1.2B); but Amazon lost $5.4B. US stock markets had a bad month
in April on growing concerns of possible recession; the Dow Jones fell by 5%
(down 9% in 2022) while the Nasdaq fell 13% in April.
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Australia |
On 10 April PM Morrison called the
general election for Saturday 21 May. Liberal Senator Concetta
Fierravanti-Wells fierce criticism of PM Morrison. Security Treaty Solomons &
China signed 20 April raised concerns in Australia. Tasmanian Premier Peter Gutwein
announced his retirement. Australian Budget contained almost
$7B for cost-of-living relief. 'Interim' Free Trade Agreement with
India signed. PM Morrison hand-picked Liberal
candidates in 12 electorates. Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) won the
Australian Grand Prix in Melbourne, Sergio Perez (Red Bull) second. 20 April first “Leaders Debate” in
Australian general election; close result. Consumer Price Index (inflation)
up 5.1% in 12 months; pressure on Reserve Bank to start increasing interest
rates. Labor leader Anthony Albanese
tested positive for Covid; 7 days isolation; he returned to campaigning on 29
April. Trivago and Uber both hit with big
fines for misleading consumers. Aussie tennis player Nick Kyrgios
was fined $47K for unsportsman-like behaviour (tantrums) during the Miami Open. Australian Broadcasting
Corporation (ABC) announced that Sarah Ferguson will replace Leigh Sales on
the 7.30 Report.
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China |
After more that a year’s
detention, trial of Cheng Lei started in Beijing on charges of
violating national security. No observers allowed. Cheng has Australian citizenship and family in Melbourne, but China (like several other countries) doesn't recognise dual citizenship. GDP growth of 4.8% in Q1 2022; but
future doubt due to CV lockdowns. Potential lockdown in Beijing as
Covid numbers increase; restrictions easing in Shanghai. China seems
determined to continue its “Zero Covid” policy. CNN estimates that there are currently full or partial lockdowns in 27 Chinese cities affecting about 165m people. Smartphone sales in China were
down 14% in Q1 2022; Apple fell to third place (18% market share) when its
sales declined by 23% in Q1.
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INTERNATIONAL TRADE
My 30 year career as an Australian Trade Commissioner gave me an interest in matters related to international trade. I subscribe to Bloomberg's excellent daily newsletter "Supply Lines - tracking Covid-19's impact on trade" (former title 'Trade Matters').
Covid Pandemic
Covid
pandemic January 2020 to April 2022: Top 15 countries by cumulative cases. Also
showing cumulative deaths; Cases per 1 million population; and deaths per 1 million
population.
Note: figures have been rounded.
Source: www.worldometers.info/coronavirus
accessed 30 April 2022.
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Country |
Cumulative cases, millions |
Cumulative deaths, thousands |
Cases per 1m population, thousands |
Deaths per 1m population |
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World |
513 |
6.3m |
66 |
8o3 |
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1. USA |
83 |
1.0m |
248 |
3,051 |
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2. India |
43 |
524 |
31 |
373 |
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3. Brazil |
30 |
663 |
141 |
3,082 |
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4. France |
29 |
146 |
436 |
2,226 |
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5. Germany |
25 |
136 |
293 |
1,611 |
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6. UK |
22 |
175 |
322 |
2,552 |
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7. Russia |
18 |
376 |
125 |
2,573 |
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8. S. Korea |
17 |
23 |
336 |
444 |
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9. Italy |
16 |
163 |
272 |
2,709 |
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10. Turkey |
15 |
99 |
175 |
1,148 |
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11. Spain |
12 |
104 |
254 |
2,233 |
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12. Vietnam |
11 |
43 |
108 |
435 |
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13. Argentina |
9 |
129 |
197 |
2,797 |
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14.
Netherlands |
8 |
22 |
468 |
1,293 |
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15. Japan |
8 |
30 |
62 |
235 |
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18. Indonesia |
6 |
156 |
22 |
560 |
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20. Australia |
6 |
7 |
227 |
278 |
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108. China |
216 |
5 |
150 |
3 |
On 20 April 2022 the number of cumulative deaths (Covid related) in the USA
passed one million, a sad day.
In this table, Brazil has had the worst record in “deaths
per 1m population”, followed by the USA. China has had a remarkably low death
rate, followed by Japan and Australia.
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