Gentlefolk,

This post describes our activities in May 2022.

The contents of this post are in the following sequence:

Photos of our activities during May 2022.

Movie; Book.

Comments on the Federal Election held 21 May 2022.

Some news items which caught my eye in May 2022.

International Trade.

The Brumbies Rugby Union Team.

Photos of our main activities during May 2022.

The Canberra International Music Festival staged a number of "up & coming" artists at Belconnen Arts Centre.

The Luminescence Children's Choir performed. Wonderful harmony.

Jeremy Sun, aged 16, is a budding concert pianist. He has all the makings of a future star.

Eric Avery, plays violin and sings in Ngiyampaa aboriginal language.

I watched the Brumbies play the Wellington Hurricanes at Canberra Stadium, with Paul Nicol and Andrew Moorhead. The Rugby Men's Choir entertained the crowd, always good fun.

The Brumbies' mascot "Brumby Jack". Brumbies are wild horses. It was a lovely, sunny, Autumn Sunday afternoon. The official crowd size was 8,000 (but looked less - disappointing - the Brumbies are playing good rugby and winning).

The Brumbies attacking the Hurricanes line.

Final score was 42 to 25 (5 tries to 3, but we kicked penalty goals). Last week the Brumbies beat the Highlanders in NZ, and this week took another Kiwi scalp - fantastic! The match statistics are shown in the following Table.

A blast from the past. Where have the years gone? Vera in late 1972. I arrived in Jakarta in February 1972, we met a few months later ... fell in love ... married October 1973 ... and the rest is history ...

Another photo of Vera in 1972. She was a 'hottie', a ball of energy and lots of fun. What a wonderful girl!

I am a volunteer guide at The Museum of Australian Democracy (Old Parliament House). On duty Sunday 8 May (the first time for almost a year because of Covid). There is a new exhibition featuring Australia's Prime Ministers, from Edmund Barton in 1901 to Scott Morrison in 2019. The longest serving PM was Robert Menzies (18 years) and the shortest was Francis Forde (8 days).

We dusted off some of our collection of Chinese Blue & White porcelain. Unfortunately we just can't fit it all into our apartment.

On Saturday 7 May I attended the GWS v Geelong Aussie Rules game at Manuka Oval with Heath McMichael and Phil Diak. It was a full house (15,000 spectators). The final score was GWS 4.11 (35) to Geelong 12.16 (88). The Cats ran away with it in the last quarter.

The National Gallery of Australia hosted an exhibition of Jeffrey Smart paintings. Our friend Maria Helena Nicol is a volunteer guide at the NGA and explained the exhibition to us.

Jeffrey Smart (born Adelaide 1921, died Tuscany 2013 aged 91). He was known for his precisionist depictions of urban landscapes, full of private jokes.

Self portrait 1940 (aged 19).

Self portrait 1993 (aged 72).

Keswick Siding, 1945.

Cahill Expressway 1962 (with a Hitchcock-like figure).

Partner Ian Bent at ticket boxes, Rome, 1964.

An uncharacteristicly demure Germaine Greer, 1984.

The Two-Up Game, with Partner Ermes De Zan, 2006.

A (tiny) portrait of Clive James, 1991.

The Golf Links, 1971 (he placed the hole/flag in the middle of the bunker!!!).

We attended a book launch at the ANU of Kevin Rudd's book "The Avoidable War - the dangers of a catastrophic conflict between the USA and China".

Former Foreign Minister (now Chancellor of the ANU) Julie Bishop interviewed Kevin Rudd about his book. The hall was filled to capacity, with many young people were in the audience. Kevin has rock star status!

Kevin Rudd signed copies of his book. I have never seen so many people lining up to buy a book. Canberrans recognise his high intellect and exceptional understanding of Asia.

A gathering of the Australia Indonesia Families Association (AIFA) to mark the end of Ramadan.

The Federal Election was on Saturday 21 May 2022. There were two weeks of "pre-poll" for people who wanted to vote early. Vera and I voted "pre-poll" at Old Parliament House. I'm a volunteer guide in this historic building. The front doors were damaged by fire on 30 December and are still being repaired.

There was a queue of people wanting to vote early. The whole process took us about 30 minutes.

The front page of The Canberra Times on 21 May depicting the leaders of the two main parties (Scott Morrison, Liberal Party and Anthony Albanese, Labor Party) as either end of a "democracy sausage".

The electoral "pendulum" which was pioneered by my former colleague Malcolm Mackerras. This election was different as several, so called "TEAL Independents" beat the Liberals in blue-ribbon conservative seats. Voters were obviously fed up with the Coalition's weak policies on Climate Change and a Federal Integrity Commission.

Although we had already voted, I went to the polling booth at Telopea High School so see the process.

People buying "democracy sausages" after voting, a popular way for school organisations to raise money. A band entertained.

On Saturday night 21 May we invited friends for dinner and to watch the election count: Paul & Maria Helena Nicol, Andrew Moorhead, Beranrd Kertesz, and Ines Carrin.

We celebrated when it became clear that the Labor Party had won the election. It was time for a change. Anthony Albanese will be Australia's 31st Prime Minister, coming in at a tough time, won't be easy, we wish him well.
See election analysis below.

Organised by the ANU's Indonesian Students Group, speeches, music and a movie about the fall of Suharto in 1998.

The Indonesian Ambassador, Siswo Pramono, spoke at the event. He (and his wife) are both PhD graduates of the ANU.

I attended an afternoon performance of the Austrian Choir. Packed hall. We used to take my mother in the old days, always enjoyable.

The Museum of Australian Democracy hosted morning tea for the Volunteer Guides. Director Daryl Karp took the opportunity to say goodbye - she is moving to the National Maritime Museum in Sydney.

I participate in a U3A German Conversation Group on Monday evenings at teh Harmonie German Club. Usually about a dozen German speakers meet to chat. Here are some of the Group: Edmund, Pat, Irene, Harry, and Jim. My spoken German is pretty rusty as I haven't used it for about 65 years!

Sydney (Queens Park, near Bondi Junction)

Andrew and Caroline finally moved in to their new home last week, and Vera & I had four nights in Sydney with them. It was a two-year project. Caroline did an amazing job bringing it to fuition. Wonderful result.

A view of the back garden looking at the big open-plan living/dining room.

The open-plan living/dining room. Caroline is doing some work on the dining table.

View from main bedroom, south-west towards Botany Bay.

Their new shop at 410 Crown St, Surry Hills. See reddie.com.au

Another photo of Reddie showroom at 410 Crown St, Surry Hills.

We watched Eddie play in a junior tennis competition at Sydney University Sports Centre. He was runner-up.

Movie

The Brits do these period movies soooo well. Brilliant acting; story line was a bit weak.

Book

This young Canadian worked as a journalist (and English teacher, and actor, and voice-over) in Beijing from 2008 for 6 years. We were English teachers in Qingdao, Shandong Province from 2009-2016; I could relate to many of his experiences.

...

Australian Federal Election, 21 May 2022

Federal Election held 21 May 2022: Results, as they happened

Reporting by Antony Green, ABC Election Analyst on ABC TV

These stats refer to the 151 seats in the House of Representatives (HoR); there was also a Half-Senate election but all eyes were on the HoR.

Time	Australian Labor Party (ALP)	Liberal National Coalition (LNC)	Other	In doubt
Election night Sat 21 May 2022
8.30pm Sat 21/5	64	46	6	35
9.00pm	66	47	8	30
9.30pm	70	47	8	26
ABC election analyst Antony Green said the LNC could not form Govt on these figures - we then realized that there would be a change of Govt. There was a palpable sense of relief among the 7 of us at dinner (our friends: Paul & Maria Helena Nicol, Andrew Moorhead; Bernard Kertesz, and Ines Carrin); “Scotty from marketing” was gone; people had seen through his bluster! But would Labor get a majority (76)?
9.40pm Antony Green called Goldstein, formerly a safe Liberal seat, for Independent Zoe Daniel. The first of the “TEAL Independents” to get up.
10.10pm	71	51	10	19
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg admitted, while winning Kooyong was “still a mathematical possibility, it was unlikely”. Monique Ryan, Independent, is the likely winner.
10.50pm	72	52	11	16
WA results start coming in, and showed a big swing to Labor.
PM Scott Morrison announced that he had congratulated Albo on winning this election; he will resign as Leader at the next meeting of the Liberal Party.
11.40pm	72	55	11	13
Anthony Albanese made victory speech. Albo may not be the most inspirational speaker, but he seems a very decent and genuine person, with a vision for a better Australia. The ABC election broadcast finished at midnight and we called it a night.
12noon Mon 23 May	72	52	15	12
After more counting on Sunday and Monday morning, the projected figures were revised with the LNC down to 52. Twelve seats were still too close to call. Albo and 4 others were sworn in by the Governor General. Albo and Penny Wong (Foreign Minister) left immediately for Quad meeting in Tokyo. Richard Marles Acting PM; Jim Chalmers, Treasurer; Katy Gallagher, Finance Minister.
6pm Tues 24 May	74	56	15	6
With 76% of votes counted, the ABC has Labor leading in 3 of the 6 ‘in doubt’ seats. If they get at least two of those, that will give them 76 seats (out of 151) which would enable Labor to govern in its own right.
6pm Tues 31 May	77	58	16	-
Last night, 30 May, the ABC predicted that Labor will win 76 seats in the House of Representatives, giving them a majority, so they will be able to govern in their own right (there are still 2 seats “in doubt” too close to call). This evening (31/5) the ABC prediction allocated the two doubtful seats - one each to Labor and the Coalition, so this should be the composition of the new HoR. But in the Senate Labor will need Cross-Bench support to get legislation passed. Labor’s new Ministry is expected to be announced and sworn in later today.

House of Representatives (HoR)

Counting of pre-poll votes started at 4pm on 21 May; counting of votes cast on the day started at 6pm when the polls closed.

When counting stopped at midnight on 21 May, about 60% of votes had been counted. The figures were based on projections according to Antony Green’s computer program.

Still many votes to be counted, and especially postal votes (2.5million were requested). Postal votes will be counted over the next ten days. So things could still change.

At 10.10pm Josh Frydenberg said that while a win in Kooyong (Melbourne) was still possible, it was unlikely.

At 10.50pm PM Scott Morrison announced that he had rung Anthony Albanese to concede defeat and congratulate him on the win. Scomo said that he will resign at the next Party meeting and a new leader of the Liberal Party will be chosen. With Frydenberg out, Peter Dutton is the front-runner to be the next leader of the Liberal Party.

At 11.50pm Albo made a speech indicating that he will be Australia’s 31st Prime Minister. He expects that his some Ministers will be sworn in by the Governor General on Monday (Albo will attend a meeting of QUAD leaders (USA, India, Japan, and Australia) in Tokyo next week).

The ALP need to get another 4 seats to reach 76 to be able to govern in their own right. If not, they will have to negotiate with the cross-benches (Greens and Independents).

The figures so far suggest that the LNC got 35% of primary votes (down 6% on 2019); Labor got 33% (down 2%); Greens got 12% (up 2%); Independents got 6% (up 2%). Australia has preferential voting for the HoR so even if someone gets most primary votes, they might still lose if preferences go against them.

The Senate

The Senate has 76 members and half come up for election every 3 years.

We didn’t get much reporting on the Senate on election night – all eyes were on the HoR. Canberra has two Senators, and always one has been Labor and the other Liberal. But this time it seems David Pocock, an Independent, will replace Zed Seselja (Liberal) while Katy Gallagher (Labor) will retain her Senate seat.

PARTY TOTALS as at 31 May 2022

Source: www.abc.net.au/australiavotes accessed 6pm on 31 May 2022

House of Representatives

Party Totals, as at 31 May 2022. 82% of votes counted; all seats have now been allocated.

National two-Party preferred result: Coalition 48%, Labor 52%. Preferential voting is used in HoR elections.

The HoR has 151 members, so 76 is a majority.

Nationwide	Vote count (million)	Vote %	Swing %	Seats won	Change

Lib Nat Coalition	4.7	36%	-5.3%	58	-18
Aust Labor Party	4.3	33%	-0.5%	77	+8
The Greens	1.6	12%	1.4%	4	+3
One Nation	0.6	5%	1.8%	0	0
United Australia	0.5	4%	0.6%	0	0
Other (incl 10 Independents)	1.4	10%	2.0%	12	+7

The ten Independents in the new HoR are:

Re-elected: Zali Steggall, Warringah NSW; Helen Haines, Indi Vic; Andrew Wilke, Clark Tas.

Newly elected: Kate Chaney, Curtin WA; Zoe Daniel, Goldstein Vic; Dai Le, Fowler NSW; Monique Ryan, Kooyong Vic; Sophie Scamps, Mackellar NSW; Allegra Spender, Wentworth NSW; Kylea Tink, North Sydney, NSW.

The Senate

In this election 40 (of 76) Senate seats were up for election. 39 give a majority. Proportional representation is used in Senate elections.

As at 31 May, 76% of votes have been counted, with 2 seats still in doubt.

On these figures Labor will need the support of The Greens, plus one, to pass legislation which the Coalition opposes. Bills must be passed by both Houses (Reps & Senate) to become Acts and laws.

Party	Continuing	Won	Likely	Total as at 31/5

Liberal National Coalition LNC	17	13	1	31
Labor ALP	11	11	4	26
Greens	6	3	3	12
One Nation	1	-	1	2
Jacqui Lambie	1	-	1	2
David Pocock	-	1	-	1

...

News items which caught my eye during May 2022.

Global

Stock markets around the world crashed on concerns about increasing inflation, rising interest rates, cramped supply lines, lock-downs in China, all feeding into concerns of possible recession.

Johns Hopkins University estimated cumulative Covid-related deaths passed 6M world-wide. But the WHO put the figure closer to 15M, and The Economist estimate is around 18M deaths.

Sinn Fein won most seats (27) in the Northern Ireland elections followed by the DUP with 24; Michelle O’Neill could be the first Republican leader in the 101 year history of Northern Ireland.

Ferdinand (BongBong) Marcos Jr was elected President of The Philippines (his father left in disgrace in 1986).

Amputee Jacky Hunt-Broersma, 46, ran 104 marathons in 104 days – amazing!

Ronnie O’Sullivan (Britain) won his 7^th World Snooker title.

British Petroleum reported Q1 profit of $6.2B (cf $2.6B in Q1 2021). Calls for a super-profits tax.

British actor Dennis Waterman died aged 74. As Terry McCann he was Arthur Daley’s “minder” in the popular 1980s BBC series.

Rwanda-born Ncuti Gatwa will be the next lead actor in BBC’s “Dr Who”.

American consortium to buy Chelsea Football Club from Russian Oligarch Roman Abramovich for $3.1B.

The Taliban in Afghanistan brought in a rule that women must ear the Burqa in public, and that female TV presenters must cover their faces.

Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz, 19, won the Madrid Tennis Open (he beat Nadal, Djokovic and Zerev). A name to watch!

UK inflation 9% 12 months to April 2022; Bank of England made 4^th increase in interest rates (to 1%).

EU plans to wean itself off Russian oil (currently 27% of imports) and gas (currently 40% of imports).

Manchester City won the English Premier League, Liverpool second. Real Madrid beat Liverpool to win its 14th Champions League title.

Quad (USA, Japan, India, and Australia) leaders met in Tokyo.

250 cases of Monkeypox detected in 16 countries.

USA initiated “Indo-Pacific Economic Framework” established. Membership: USA, Australia, India, Brunei, Indonesia, Japan, S Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, The Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.

Australian Jai Hindley, 26, won the Giro d’Italia; first Aussie rider to win a cycling major since Cadel Evans won the Tour de France in 2011.

Russian invasion of Ukraine

Despite anger from Moscow, Sweden and Finland applied to join NATO; but applications stalled by Turkey.

Separate groups of Congressmen visited Kyiv, first led by Nancy Pelosi (Democrat); the second led by Mitch McConnell (Republican). Jill Biden also visited Ukraine.

McDonalds to sell its 850 stores in Russia.

Mariupol falls to Russian military after months of fighting.

President Biden signed into law an Act to provide Ukraine with $40B aid package.

Polish President addressed the Ukraine Parliament in Kyiv.

USA

A draft copy of the US Supreme Court’s ruling on Roe v Wade was leaked. It appeared that a majority of Justices were prepared to overturn the ruling made in 1973 which established a federal right to abortion. It triggered widespread demonstrations around America.

To dampen inflationary pressures, the US Federal Reserve raised official interest by 0.5 to 0.75%.

The Kentucky Derby was won by 80-1 outsider Rich Strike.

A 1964 painting of Marilyn Monroe by Andy Warhol sold for $195M.

US / ASEAN summit in Washington DC.

President Biden visited Japan and South Korea.

The Washington Post estimated that $163B was stolen or misspent during the Covid response in 2021-22.

Mass shootings: Buffalo racial hate crime by 18 year old Payton Gendron, 10 black shoppers killed; Robb Elementary School in Uvalde Texas 19 children and 2 teachers killed by 18 year old high school student Salvador Ramos. There have been 138 school shootings in the USA this year. Biden & Harris call for gun reform, but unlikely anything will change.

Widespread shortage of baby formula in USA due to production problems.

Australia

Federal election on 21 May resulted in change of Government: Labor in, Liberal National Coalition out. Anthony Albanese replaced Scott Morrison as Prime Minister.

Parliamentary Liberal Party chose Peter Dutton and Sussan Ley as Leader & Deputy Leader. The Nationals chose David Littleproud and Pernis Davey as Leader and Deputy Leader.

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the official interest rate by 0.25 to 0.35% (followed the US Fed’s 0.5% rise; the Bank of England has made 4 increases).

Tech billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes bought 11% of AGL to influence their climate change approach.

Australia’s unemployment rate 3.9%, lowest in 50 years.

Despite high vaccination rates, Covid related infections and deaths are increasing rapidly. More than 5,600 Australians have died with Covid so far in 2022, more than double the total of the previous two years.

China

John Lee replaced Carrie Lam as Chief Executive of Hong Kong.

Covid lock-down ends slowly in Shanghai; Beijing and Xian started mass testing.

China withdrew as host of 2023 Asian Soccer Cup.

...

INTERNATIONAL TRADE

My 30 year career as an Australian Trade Commissioner gave me an interest in matters related to international trade. I subscribe to Bloomberg's excellent daily newsletter "Supply Lines - tracking Covid-19's impact on trade" (former title 'Trade Matters').

Here are some of the more interesting graphs in the Bloomberg newsletter during May 2022; they are largely self-explanatory.

...

Rugby Union

The Brumbies, Canberra's team in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific Competition, made the first round of the Finals; they play the Hurricanes in Canberra on Saturday night 4 June 2022.

The Brumbies have been the most successful Australian side this year (others: Qld Reds, NSW Waratahs, Melbourne Rebels, Perth Force), but they have lost their last 3 games. They will have to play better on Saturday!

The following tables show the Match Statistics for their games against 4 New Zealand teams: Highlanders, Hurricanes, Chiefs, and Crusaders. I was hoping to see a pattern - but it's elusive - can you see anything??? I have new respect for Coaches who have to interpret such statistics.

2022 Super Rugby Pacific competition.

	Played in New Zealand 24 April 2022		Played in Canberra 1 May 2022
	Brumbies	Highlanders	Brumbies	Hurricanes
Half time score	17	7	16	13
Full time score	28	17	42	25
Tries	3	2	5	3
Conversions	2	2	4	2
Penalty goals	3	1	3	2
Kick success rate	83%	100%	88%	67%
Possession	45%	55%	49%	51%
Territory	55%	45%	37%	63%
Passes	121	159	111	200
Runs	87	107	93	121
Metres run	356	294	382	542
Clean breaks	3	2	4	5
Tackles	149	114	159	109
Missed tackles	14	18	21	20
Defenders beaten	18	14	20	21
Offloads	8	2	5	8
Rucks won	65 (92%)	94 (96%)	71 (98%)	94 (96%)
Mauls won	6 (100%)	1 (100%)	8 (100%)	-
Turnovers conceded	13	13	9	17
Scrums won	3 (60%)	6 (75%)	5 (55%)	5 (100%)
Lineouts won	14 (82%)	13 (92%)	13 (100%)	9 (90%)
Yellow cards	-	-	1	2
Penalties conceded	14	13	7	10
Kicks from Hand	27	30	22	9

Source: ESPN https://www.espn.com.au/rugby/matchstats accessed 3 May 2022.

	Played in New Zealand 7 May 2022		Played in Canberra 13 May 2022
	Brumbies	Chiefs	Brumbies	Crusaders
Half time score	18	14	5	23
Full time score	38	28	26	37
Tries	4	4	4	4
Conversions	3	4	3	4
Penalty goals	4	-	-	3
Kick % success	88%	100%	75%	100%
Possession	44%	56%	50%	50%
Territory	39%	61%	52%	48%
Kicks from Hand	33	20	19	28
Passes	86	187	114	154
Runs	85	140	115	103
Metres run	331	392	582	435
Clean breaks	5	3	5	4
Tackles	191	100	144	164
Missed tackles	27	15	20	18
Defenders beaten	15	27	18	20
Offloads	3	10	7	5
Rucks won	63 (96%)	110 (97%)	89 (96%)	83 (97%)
Mauls won	2 (66%)	3 (100%)	3 (75%)	6 (100%)
Turnovers conceded	7	16	16	9
Turnover knock on	6	10	12	7
Scrums won	4 (80%)	3 (60%)	2 (100%)	7 (77%)
Lineouts won	7 (77%)	12 (92%)	13 (86%)	12 (85%)
Yellow cards	-	-	-	-
Penalties conceded	10	9	10	11

Source: ESPN https://www.espn.com.au/rugby/matchstats accessed 14 May 2022.

Go Brumbies on Saturday!!!

...

That's it for this post.

Best wishes, stay healthy and keep smiling.

Vera & Alex Olah

Canberra Australia

Tuesday 31 May 2022

Life, Down Under. The digital diary of Vera & Alex Olah

Tuesday, 31 May 2022

Post #253 31 May 2022