Post #220 19 April 2020

Gentlefolk,

This post provides highlights of the Covid-19 Pandemic during the 10 days 10 - 19 April 2020.

I've decided to do posts on the Pandemic every 10 days. 

My last post (Post #219) covered the first 100 days of the Pandemic (from 1 January to 9 April 2020), but it contained a mountain of information.  There is so much happening every day; hopefully doing it in 10 day chunks will make it a bit easier to absorb / understand.

Covid-19 pandemic: 10 – 19 April 2020 (days 101 – 110)

(Compiled from various sources by Alex Olah)

Day	Date	Event / Announcement
101	10 April 2020	UK: PM Boris Johnson out of intensive care. European Union: announced support package E540 billion (US$590b). USA: 16.8 million applied for unemployment in last 3 weeks. The Dow Jones Index rose 13% over 5 days to 23,434.
102	11	USA: Latest modelling estimated that US deaths would total around 60,000, much lower than previous estimates, and that the curve was starting to flatten. Governor Cuomo of New York State said daily ICU admissions had fallen for the first time.
103	12	USA grim milestones:  cases pass 500,000 and deaths pass 20,000 (more than 2,000 deaths yesterday).
104	13	OPEC+ countries reached agreement to cut oil production by 10% (9.7 million barrels per day) to stabilise prices, (but demand has already fallen 20%).
105	14	WHO: published guidelines to assist countries decide when to start relaxing restrictions. Europe: Some countries cautiously started to ease restrictions: Spain, Italy, Denmark, Czech Rep, Austria. Turkey announced nation-wide lock-down. France extended lock-down for another 3 weeks, until 11 May. USA: President Trump claimed “total power” in relation to the pandemic and when to ease restrictions (suggested opening the country by 1 May). But under the US Constitution the States (ie Governors) are responsible for health, education, public safety. So far 42 Governors have introduced ‘stay-at-home’ restrictions in their States. Last week Bernie Sanders quit the race and today he formally endorsed Joe Biden as the Democratic candidate for the 2020 Presidential election in November.
106	15	USA: President Trump suspended US funding for the WHO (US$400m in 2019) pending review of performance re Covid-19. IMF: predicted the world economy will contract by 3% this year – a recession – biggest contraction since the 1930s. Australia: Treasury predicted unemployment will double, to 10% (would have been much higher without the JobKeeper package). China: New research showed that in the early days of the virus in Wuhan, carriers infected on average 5.7 other people (double the number originally thought). UK: admitted that CV19 death numbers have been understated by more than 10% as they did not include deaths in nursing homes (France, Italy and Spain similar).
107	16	Global: new milestone 2 million cases of CV19.  By my calculation it took 110 days to reach 1 million (16 December 2019 - 3 April 2020) and just 14 days to reach 2 million (3 - 16 April). Most cases were in Europe (1.01m) and the USA (607,000). China: reported 46 new cases (89 the previous day); mainly arrivals from overseas, and near border with Russia. Thailand: extended ban on international flights to 30 April. New Zealand: leaders announced a 20% cut in salaries for 6 months. USA: Governor of Virginia extended restrictions to 8 May. Protests in some US cities called for easing of restrictions. IEA forecasts big drop in global oil demand; 26% of active oil rigs already halted in USA; oil futures below US$20 /barrel.
108	17	Australia: PM Morrison said the National Cabinet was looking at easing restrictions “in about 4 weeks”, depending on medical advice (new cases have numbered less than 60 per day for the last 5 days) Qantas and Virgin provided with $165m to support continued flights. USA: 5.25m people registered for unemployment in the week ending 11 April, bringing the total to 22m in past 4 weeks. The $349billion “Paycheck Protection Program” for small business, part of the $2trillion support package, has been fully subscribed. President Trump issued guidelines to assist States determine reopening schedules; he said 29 States with few cases could ease restrictions soon. Governor Cuomo of NY extended shut-down to 15 May; ordered masks be worn when people are outside; yesterday 17,735 were hospitalised in NY, the lowest number since 6 April. The USA – Canada border will remain closed to non-essential travel past 19 April, for another 30 days.
109	18	USA: President Trump tweeted “LIBERATE MICHIGAN, VIRGINIA, MINNESOTA” in support of protesters. Oil price fell to US$18/barrel (down 36% in two weeks). US allocated an additional $19 billion to support farmers. UK: extended lock-down for another 3 weeks. Germany (142,325 cases, 4,426 deaths): “CV19 under control” as infection rate dropped below 1:1.
110	19	USA: new rallies against lock-down restrictions took place in various States; President Trump described the protestors as ‘responsible’. Spain: stay-at-home restrictions introduced on 27 April extended to 9 May. Turkey: with 82,329 cases overtook Iran as the highest in the Middle East. China (now 83,730 cases, 4,632 deaths): original number of deaths in Wuhan revised up by about 50%. Preliminary figures show China's GDP fell by over 6.5% in the first quarter of 2020; the first negative result since quarterly estimates started in 1992. CV19 has hit the Chinese economy very hard.

Covid-19 by the numbers (cumulative)

Source: JHU/WHO from SCMP  (I started keeping daily figures on 3 April 2020)

Date 2020	Global		Australia
	Infections	Deaths	Infections	Deaths
3 April	1,002.159	51,485	5,116	24
10 April	1,606,782	95,990	6,108	51
19 April	2,302,152	158,220	6,547	67

Date	USA		Italy		Spain
	Infections	Deaths	Infections	Deaths	Infections	Deaths
3 April	236,339	5,648	115,242	13,915	110,238	10,096
10 April	452,582	16,129	143,626	18,279	152,446	15,238
19 April	726,645	37,938	175,925	23,227	191,726	20,043

Date	Iran		India		Indonesia
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	50,468	3,160	2,356	72	1,790	170
10 April	66,220	4,110	6,653	199	3,293	280
19 April	80,868	5,031	14,792	485	6,248	535

Date	Brazil		Russia		Nigeria
	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths
3 April	7,910	299	3,548	30
10 April	16,474	839	10,131	76	276	6
19 April	34,485	2,181	36,793	313	442	13

...

 It looks as if Australia's lock-down will continue until mid-May, depending on medical advice at that time.

In the meantime Vera & I are fine.  Staying pretty close to home, just venturing out for essential things like shopping and exercise. Maintaining social-distancing.

We are so lucky that Australia seems to have Covid-19 under control at this stage. Our health system is coping, unlike many other countries.

There is a shortage of toilet paper and face masks, but otherwise the shops seem to have plenty of supplies especially food.

The economy has been hit hard, many businesses have closed and many people are unemployed or under-employed.  Again, we are lucky not to be in that cohort but our hearts go out to all those affected by the CV19 scourge.

...

Here are photos of some activities in which we have been involved.

Sandy organised a "virtual drinks get-together" via ZOOM for the Guys & Dolls Group.  It went well.

Fuel price at Costco. First time in many years Unleaded 91 has been below a dollar/liter.

Golf Clubs are still allowed to operate in Canberra, but only two can play at a time.  I've had a couple of games with Noel (here hitting off on the 5th hole of Capital Golf Club - he got a par!). My lack of practice means I'm all over the course - why can't I hit the ball straight???

We are fortunate to live close to beautiful Lake Burley Griffin; Vera & I often walk here (it's popular with Canberrans). From our apartment over the two bridges and back is 7.5km, takes me 75 minutes at a fast clip. We've had nice autumn weather, but definitely getting cooler now.

The view from our balcony, along Printers Way. The leaves are turning, it's autumn.

We've been using the BBQ a lot - here pork loin - delicious!!!

Good friend Richard Roberts died last week.  He was Jen's father-in-law (ie Tom's father). He was a delightful person, always doing something interesting.  Strong social conscience, very active in community affairs. He made a difference. May he Rest-in-Peace.  

...

Best wishes, stay healthy and keep smiling (if you can in these grim times).

Vera & Alex Olah

Canberra, Australia

Sunday 19 April 2020

(day 110 of the Pandemic)