Wednesday, 29 April 2020

Post #221 29 April 2020

Gentlefolk,

I am doing a summary of Covid-19 (CV19) every 10 days.  This is the third post in the sequence and covers the period 20 - 29 April.

Timeline #1: first 100 days, 1 January – 9 April 2020 (Post #219).
Timeline #2: next ten days, 10 – 19 April 2020 (Post #220).
Timeline #3 (this one): ten days 20 – 29 April 2020 (Post #221).

I am hoping that by breaking it down into 10 day segments we can make more sense of this medical & economic tsunami which has hit the world.

First some raw numbers; frightening to see the progression in the USA; CV19 has taken off in Russia; is developing in Latin America, and parts of South Asia; just starting in Africa.

Covid-19 by the numbers, confirmed cases and deaths (cumulative), global and selected countries.
Source: John Hopkins University / World Health Organisation (from South China Morning Post)

Note 1: On 3 April I started noting daily figures; I chose 16 April as it is half-way through this 27 day period (3 – 29 April); by coincidence these dates were also when the Global number of confirmed cases went from 1 million to 2 m and then 3 m. 

Note 2: Often country statistics have been revised upwards as officials catch up.

Date 2020
Global
Australia

Cases
Deaths
Cases
Deaths
3 April
1,002.159
51,485
5,116
24
16 April
2,005,414
127,792
6,494
63
29 April
3,092,946
214,336
6,721
83

Date
USA
Italy
Spain

Cases
Deaths
Cases
Deaths
Cases
Deaths
3 April
236,339
5,648
115,242
13,915
110,238
10,096
16 April
609,685
26,057
162,488
21,067
177,633
18,579
29 April
1,004,908
57,266
201,505
27,359
232,128
23,822

Date
Iran
India
Indonesia

Cases
Deaths
Cases
Deaths
Cases
Deaths
3 April
50,468
3,160
2,356
72
1,790
170
16 April
76,389
4,777
11,555
396
5,136
469
29 April
92,584
5,877
29,451
939
9,511
773

Date
Brazil
Russia
Nigeria

Cases
Deaths
Cases
Deaths
Cases
Deaths
3 April
7,910
299
3,548
30


16 April
25,262
1,532
24,490
198
343
10
29 April
71,886
5,107
93,558
867
1,337
40


 Covid-19 pandemic Timeline #3:             
20 - 29 April 2020 (days 111 – 120)

Events and Announcements which caught my eye during this period.
(Compiled from various media sources by Alex Olah)

(Note: $ = US dollars unless otherwise stated)

Day
Date

Event / Announcement
111
20 April 2020
USA:
4,591 deaths in the last 24 hours. Total now over 41,000.
Global:
Lady Gaga hosted “One World - Together at Home” concert. Eight hours; 70 artists including Taylor Swift, Rolling Stones, Stevie Wonder, Keith Urban. Raised $130 million of CV Relief Fund.

112
21
WHO :
Director General Tedros referring to Covid-19 in Africa, Latin America, said “The worst is still ahead of us.”
USA:
Texas oil futures went negative (ie below $0/barrel) for a few hours. How was that possible?  Supply far exceeds demand, and storage facilities are full. Previous minimum was $10/barrel in 1986. Predictions of many bankruptcies in Texas.
President Trump suspended arrivals of new ‘green card’ holders into the USA (459,000 green card holders entered the US in 2019). People on temporary visas, like seasonal farm workers, still permitted entry.
14 States have said they will start easing restrictions (President Trump said he disagreed with Georgia’s plan to reopen beauty salons, massage parlours, and gyms).
Australia:
Local Councils open some beaches in Sydney for exercise.
Elective surgery will be permitted again from next week.
Virgin Australia (our second biggest airline after Qantas) declared “voluntary administration”.
Iran:
Started relaxing some restrictions.
Singapore:
Extended its partial lockdown until end of May.

113
22
USA:
Missouri State lodged a lawsuit suing China for causing CV19.
Wall Street fell as oil price crashed, Dow Jones Index down 3% to 23,018. Volatile stock markets, down one day, up the next.
A Pew poll of 1,000 Americans found 66% held unfavourable view of China (in 2006 the figure was 29%, in 2017 was 47%). Main concerns: China’s impact on the environment; cyber attacks from China; trade deficits; job losses to China; China’s military build-up; China’s human rights record.
Netherlands:
Extended lock-down until 20 May, although will gradually open schools); large events banned until 1 September.

114
23
USA:
Two pet cats in NYC detected with CV19.
The first death in the USA was thought to be a man in Washington State on 29 February. But autopsies showed two Californian deaths from CV19, a 57 year old woman on 6 February and a 69 year old man on 17 February. That suggests Covid-19 was more wide-spread earlier than suspected. Modelling indicates that on 1 March, when the official count was just 23 cases, there could already have been over 10,000 in each of California and New York.
Germany:
Wearing of facemasks became mandatory on public transport throughout Germany, and when shopping.
Singapore:
1,037 new cases, the 4th day more than 1,000 (mostly in migrant worker hostels). Now total of 11,178 cases.
China:
10 new cases, no deaths. There are 959 in hospital, 63 serious. Total cases now 82,798, deaths 4,632.
Australia:
Urged G20 to ban wildlife in wet markets.

115
24
USA:
New stimulus package of $480 billion approved by Congress and signed by President, mainly to support small business, hospitals and testing.
New York City anti-body tests (21%) suggest a much higher incidence of infection than previously thought. NY State cases total 263,460, deaths 15,740.
4.4 million applied for unemployment, bringing total to 26.5 million.
President Trump suggested strong light and disinfectants as possible cures for CV19. After ridicule by health professionals, he back-tracked.
Australia:
Cruise ship Ruby Princess left Australian waters after arriving in Sydney on 19 March. At least 600 infections and 21 deaths linked to passengers. A police inquiry is underway to determine why/how passengers were allowed to disembark the Ruby Princess without testing.

116
25
Australia:
In past month the number of confirmed cases has dropped from a peak of 460 per day to 13/day; the curve has flattened. The Government is looking at easing some internal restrictions, but ban on international travel expected to remain much longer.
The Australian Govt has introduced stimulus packages totalling A$320 billion. Now looking at economic reforms for the future.
USA:
Number of deaths pass 50,000 (has doubled in 10 days).
Governor of New York State, Andrew Cuomo, said research showed that the NY virus came from Europe, probably from Italy. He said it was good that flights from China (the front door) were stopped on 31 January, but flights from Europe (the back door) continued for another month. He said that by 1 March when the first case was fund in NY there could already have been 10,000 cases; he locked down NY State on 19 March. Cuomo warned of a “second wave” later in the year.
The Republican National Committee suggested candidates blame China for CV19 devastation during the upcoming election campaign.
France:
Preparing support packages for Air France ($7.5 billion) and Renault ($5.4 billion).
Indonesia:
Internal travel banned until 31 May (Indonesia is the world’s largest Moslem country; the fasting month of Ramadan started yesterday).
UK:
Oxford University started first human trials on a potential vaccine.


117
26
Global:
Global deaths have passed 200,000; have been increasing by 3% - 4% per day over past 10 days. Belgium has the highest fatalities per capita at 6 per 10,000, Spain 4.9 per 10,000, USA 1.6 per 10,000.
WHO:
Noted there is no conclusive evidence yet that people who get CV19 will have immunity.
China:
No CV19 deaths for 11 days.
Australia:
A voluntary national contact tracing app launched (COVIDsafe); Govt is appealing for Australians to down-load the app, but many have privacy concerns. One million signed up in the first 5 hours; needs about 10 million to join to make it effective.
States (Qld, WA) announced some easing of social distancing restrictions.

118
27
UK:
PM Boris Johnson returned to work after recovering from CV19.
UK deaths almost 21,000, but daily increase slowing.
China:
In Wuhan the final twelve CV19 patients were released from hospital. The Wuhan lock-down lasted from 23 January to 8 April 2020; total cases in Wuhan 50,333 (out of a country total of 83,851 cases and 4,633 deaths).
Italy:
The govt has announced that manufacturing companies and construction can start again next week.
Spain:
Children allowed outside under supervision, first time in weeks.

119
28
Global:
Cases pass 3 million, with almost 210,000 deaths.
USA:
White House suspended CV19 daily briefing with Trump blaming hostile questioning by media.
Bill Gates warned against premature opening.
New York’s Democratic Presidential Primary cancelled.
New Zealand:
Lowered restrictions from Level 4 to Level 3 as “CV19 eliminated”. Total 1,469 cases and 19 deaths. NZ went early and hard: on 14 March with 6 cases all visitors had to self-isolate; 20 March foreign visitors banned; 23 March Level 3 lockdown, raised to L4 on 25 March; 9 April mandatory, supervised isolation.
Germany:
The economy shrank by 1.9% in the first Quarter of 2020. Forecasts of minus 12% in Q2, and minus 6.6% for the year 2020.
UK:
BP announced a loss of $4.4 billion in Q1 2020 (compared to a profit of $2.9 billion in the first Quarter of 2019).
Australia:
Govt called for an independent review of origin of CV19; China called it “political manoeuvring”.

120
29
USA:
Confirmed cases of CV19 pass 1 million (doubled in 18 days), with 57,000 deaths (about the same number of US deaths in the 8 year Vietnam War). About 30% of US cases have been in New York State.
A pet dog in North Carolina was detected with CV19.
President Trump classified meat processing as an essential industry and ordered plants to continue operating (several closed after outbreaks of CV19).
France:
Preliminary research shows the CV19 virus did not come directly from China (New York research indicated Europe as the source, Russia also indicated Europe, Australia indicated USA). Confirms difficulty of tracing the source of coronavirus outbreaks.




Although it may not seem like it, flu pandemics are not new - there have been 6 in the last 130 years.  By far the biggest modern pandemic occurred 100 years ago, the so-called Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918 - 20. Estimates vary but there were at least 500 million cases around the world, and 50 million deaths (12 million in India alone). 

The following table gives a summary of modern flu pandemics. I have included SARS and MERS in this table, although they had relatively limited impact and are not classified as pandemics.

Modern influenza pandemics
(from internet sources, including Wikipedia)

An influenza pandemic is an epidemic of an influenza virus that spreads on a worldwide scale and infects a significant proportion of the world’s population. In contrast to regular winter influenza epidemics, pandemics occur irregularly – there have been six influenza pandemics during the last 130 years. 

Years
Description

1889-90
Russian Flu
H3N8

Known as the Russian Flu.
First detected in St Petersburg, Russia in May 1889.
Infected: 300 – 900 million.
Deaths: 1+ million.

1918-20
Spanish Flu
H1N1

Known as the Spanish Flu.
Origin is disputed, most likely USA. The first case was detected on 4 March 1918 when Private Albert Gitchell a cook at Fort Riley, Kansas reported sick. It quickly spread through military camps to Europe (the USA was sending more than 100,000 troops to Europe every month). Then around the world.
Infected: 500+ million.
Deaths: 50+ million
Some country death estimates: Australia 15,000; Spain 290,000; UK 320,000; France 360,000; Germany 580,000; USA 675,000; Indonesia 1+ million; India 12+ million.

Countries involved in WW1 had censorship and did not report on the flu pandemic. Spain was neutral; because Spanish media were the only ones reporting on the flu, many believed it originated there and the name stuck.

1957-8
Asian Flu
H2N2

Known as the Asian Flu.
First detected in Guizhou Province, China in February 1957.
Infected: estimated up to 500 million
Deaths: estimated 1 – 4 million (mainly in China; 70,000 in USA)

1968-69
Hong Kong Flu
H3N2

Known as the Hong Kong Flu.
First detected in Hong Kong in July 1968.
Infected: estimated up to 500 million
Deaths: estimated 1 – 4 million (34,000 in USA).

2003
SARS
SARS-CoV-1



Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).
Originated in Yunnan Province, China (from civets possibly infected by bats).
Infected: 8,096 cases,
Deaths: 774 deaths (90% in China and HK).

2009 - 10
Mexican Flu or Swine Flu
H1N1
Known as the Mexican Flu or Swine Flu.
First detected in Veracruz State, Mexico
Infected: estimated 700+ million
Deaths: estimated 150,000 – 575,000 (12,000 USA)
.
2012 – 20
MERS or Camel Flu.
MERS-CoV


Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), also known as Camel Flu.
Originated in Saudi Arabia (from camels, possibly infected by bats). 
Infected: 2,519 cases
Deaths:  866 deaths (More than 50% in Saudi Arabia, followed by South Korea and UAE).
2019 - 20
Covid-19
SARS–CoV-2

Covid-19
First detected in Wuhan, China in December 2019 (from wildlife, possibly infected by bats).
Infected: 3,092,946  confirmed cases as at 29 April 2020.
Deaths:  214,336 as at 29 April. 


 ...

Some countries seem to have brought CV19 under control: China, New Zealand, Australia (but it's still early days and re-opening must be done carefully and gradually).  Other countries still have a long way to go.

...

Most big countries (China is a notable exception) are federations, with political power shared between the Federal Government and State Governments. 

It has been fascinating to watch the USA system trying to combat this "invisible enemy". Sadly, President Trump's leadership has been found wanting.

We've been luckier in Australia where a National Cabinet was quickly formed comprising the Prime Minister and the Premiers of the six States and Chief Ministers of the two Territories.  But even here Premiers sometimes went their own way (especially in relation to schools). Four States (Tasmania, South Australia, Western Australia, and Queensland) actually closed their borders; visitors from other parts of Australia had to show good reason for visiting and anyone entering the State (even returning residents) had to self-isolate for 14 days.

...

One of the unfortunate effects of CV19 has been an increase in anti-Asian (particularly Chinese) sentiment. Leaders and people lashing out, wanting to blame someone, anyone, for this scourge. 

This is not the time to allocate blame, we must work together to overcome the pandemic. This is the time to strengthen the WHO, make it stronger and more effective, not make it weaker.

 ,,,


As reported earlier, we were saddened at the passing of Richard Roberts, Jen's father-in-law. He was a remarkable man: public servant, oyster farmer, strong social conscience, and community involvement. A man for all seasons, a gentleman and a scholar.  It was our great privilege to call him a friend. Taken too soon, may he Rest in Peace. 
 
Richard Copeland Roberts. Aged 75, he passed away suddenly on 13 April 2020 following a heart attack.  Fiona, Tom and Marty immediately went to Broulee to support their wonderful mother, Barbara. Jen and boys followed later.
The funeral was held on Tuesday 21 April.  Only ten family could attend the service, but it was streamed on the internet where many of his friends could participate.
The Order of Service: Welcome by Reverend Linda Chapman; Symbolic recognition (Barbara with Nate, Sid, and Isaac); Eulogy by Marty Roberts; Poems read by Fiona and Tom; Reflection by Rev Chapman; Tribute videos from Kurt (guitar), Brian Reader, Chris Long, Ros Griffin, Tod Hayward, and Francesca (violin). 
Following the service at St Peter's Anglican College, the funeral procession drove along the main street of Broulee. Many residents lined the street to bid their farewells to Richard.

...

Vera and me in Aniko's front garden.

Autumn colours in Canberra.

My brother, Papa Andy, celebrated ANZAC Day 25 April in Rarotonga with his family. Here he is with son Alex and grandchildren Hinamoana, Etu, and Wenake (born 16 April 2020). 
 ...

That's it for this post. The next post will cover CV19 during the next 10 days.

Best wishes, stay healthy and keep smiling.

Vera & Alex Olah
Canberra, Australia
Wednesday 29 April 2020